A potential trade target for every need on the Red Sox roster
A potential trade piece to fill every hole on the Red Sox roster
As bleak as it may seem now, the current MLB lockout will eventually come to an end, and the 2022 season will be upon us. When that day comes, the Boston Red Sox will find their roster filled with holes that prevent them from being considered true contenders. With many of the top free agents already off the board, the easier way to acquire impact players may be through the trade market.
For this list, I tried to be as realistic as possible. Sure, the best fit for closer may be Brewers stopper Josh Hader, but it’s highly unlikely that the Brewers are willing to part with him, and the Red Sox don’t have the prospect capital to acquire him anyway. I tried to find trades in the model of Chaim Bloom’s Red Sox tenure: Under-the radar, controllable and not too costly.
With that being said, let’s take a look at a potential fix for every need on the Red Sox roster.
Red Sox first base target: Mike Moustakas
Selecting Mike Moustakas as a potential Red Sox trade target may seem like an underwhelming choice. Over the last two years, he has slashed just .217/.304/.413 and combined for only 14 home runs and 49 RBI. As he enters his age 33 season with two years and $34 million remaining on his contract, Moustakas doesn’t appear to be the kind of player Bloom would go after.
When you put those numbers in context, however, Moustakas as a trade target makes a lot more sense. At this point in his career, Moustakas is not close to being worth $17 million a year, but the Red Sox would likely make the rebuilding Reds eat a significant portion of the salary. Acquiring him also wouldn’t require the same amount of prospect package as A’s star Matt Olson, the other big-name first baseman on the trade block.
It’s also easy to forget that Moustakas is just two years removed from posting some gaudy numbers. From 2017-2019, Moustakas slashed .259/.319/.498 while averaging 34 HR and 89 RBI per season. And while his numbers have undoubtedly fallen off over the past two seasons, he has shown flashes of still being an elite power threat. In 2021, he was hitting his usual .264/.352/.484 before being limited by a heel injury that caused him to hit .152/.204/.372 the rest of the way. So even though his overall numbers appear to show a player on the decline, Moustakas has demonstrated he is still the same player when healthy.
The biggest reason the Red Sox should go after Moustakas is that he can fix two of their needs at once. Not only can he provide the perfect, short-term stopgap to top prospect Triston Casas, but he can also provide adequate defense at second base, another critical hole on the roster. If the Red Sox can get the Reds to pay for some of his salary, Moustakas would be a great addition to their roster.
Red Sox middle infield target: Tony Kemp
One thing the Oakland Athletics have shown over the years is that they are willing to part with players after career-best seasons. From Josh Donaldson to Tim Hudson to Yoenis Cespedes, the small-market A’s have a history of trading stars during their prime to maximize their return.
Tony Kemp could be the next Athletic to be traded after the best season of their career. After spending his first five years at a light-hitting journeyman infielder, Kemp broke out in 2021, slashing a career-high .279/.382/.418 and producing 3.4 WAR. The key to Kemp’s success was his incredible strike-zone management: He was in the top 10% in baseball in both walk rate and strikeout rate.
Kemp’s rare combination of bat-to-ball skills and patience would fit in any lineup, but he would be a particularly good match with the Red Sox. Second baseman Christian Arroyo had his moments last year but struggled overall against right-handed pitching (.213/.302/.383). Kemp, who slashed .293/.375/.443, would provide an immediate upgrade while also having the ability to fill in at shortstop and all three outfield positions adequately.
Though he may cost the Red Sox a good prospect or two, there is no denying their roster would be significantly better with Kemp on it.
Red Sox outfield target: Mitch Haniger
Just hours before MLB entered into this never-ending lockout, the Red Sox shocked the baseball world by dealing Hunter Renfroe to the Brewers. Though they upgraded their defense by bringing back Jackie Bradley Jr., they now have a clear need for a right-handed, power-hitting outfielder, and few players fit that role better than Mitch Haniger.
After playing just 63 games from 2019 to 2020 due to a litany of injuries, Haniger proved no worse for wear in 2021. He sets career-highs with 39 home runs and 100 RBI while exceeding the .485 slugging percentage mark for the third time in four years. His numbers last year were eerily similar to the man he would be brought in to replace:
Mitch Haniger: .253/.318/.485 62 XBH 3.1 WAR
Hunter Renfroe: .259/.315/.501 64 XBH 2.3 WAR
There is no doubt that Haniger would be a great fit with the Red Sox, but the question is whether the Mariners would be willing to part with their longest-tenured player. With young stars Jarred Kelenic and Kyle Lewis locked into two of the outfield spots and top prospect Julio Rodriguez on the way, Seattle may be more willing to deal Haniger than you might think. With just one year remaining on his contract, the cost to acquire Haniger is well within the Red Sox price range. This is the rare deal that makes perfect sense for both sides.
Red Sox frontline starting pitching target: Sonny Gray
After losing Eduardo Rodriguez to the Tigers in free agency, the Red Sox made a concerted effort to upgrade their pitching depth this offseason. In the week preceding the lockout, the Red Sox acquired veteran starters Michael Wacha, James Paxton, and Rich Hill. Though these moves undoubtedly give the team more options for their rotation, none of the three can match the value of Rodriguez.
The Red Sox still need to add a frontline starting pitcher, and they should look no further than Reds starter Sonny Gray. Gray’s stock has fallen a bit over the last few years, but his numbers are hurt by the fact he pitches in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. His FIP, which adjusts for ballpark effects, has been .34 lower than his ERA since 2020.
While Gray has allowed more runs than usual recently, he remains an extremely difficult pitcher to hit. His three highest K/9 seasons have all come in the last three years, and he is still 10th amongst active pitchers in lowest H/9 rate. His stuff backs up the numbers, as his devastating curveball and slider are both well above average in terms of vertical movement.
Gray is not inexpensive, as he will be owed $10 million this year with a $12 million option for next year. Yet the average annual value of Gray’s contact is much lower than what other top starting pitchers got on the open market this year, including Rodriguez. No matter what surface-level numbers say, Gray is still an elite pitcher on an affordable contract, and a player of his caliber is rarely available on the trade block.
Red Sox lefty reliever target: Tanner Scott
Let’s be honest, there are much bigger names on this list than Tanner Scott. A 27-year-old with a career 4.73 ERA on a bottom-dweller team, Scott has forever been held back by control problems. He has walked 96 batters in just 156 innings, good for a disastrous 5.5 BB/9 ratio. No matter how good your stuff is, it’s hard to be an effective reliever when you are walking 14% of the batters you face.
Despite his control problems, Scott has always been good at one thing: Getting lefties out. Scott has held same-side hitters to a .199/.330/.293 over his career. This past season was even better this past season, allowing just three extra-base hits and no home runs in his 86 plate appearances against lefties this year.
The reason why the Red Sox should acquire Scott, however, is not because of what’s he’s done but of what he can do. Few lefties in the game possess better stuff, as his whiff rate and his fastball spin rate both rank in the 98th percentile among his pitchers. His upper 90’s fastball has always been his calling card, but his slider is beginning to catch up. He threw the breaking ball at a career-high rate in 2021 and held batters to a .218 XBH.
With the Orioles forever in a rebuild, it won’t take much for the Red Sox to acquire Scott. The risk-reward here is off the charts, and with Darwinson Hernandez struggling with injuries and inconsistencies, the Red Sox could use another dynamic lefty in the bullpen.
Red Sox back-end reliever target: Craig Kimbrel
O.K, stay with me here. There are many reasons to doubt that Craig Kimbrel would ever make a return to Boston. For one, the White Sox are squarely in their championship window, and contending teams rarely trade key pieces from their major league roster. Kimbrel is also owed $16 million this year and is coming off a concerning final two months after switching Chicago teams (5.09 ERA, 5 HR in 23 IP)
Yet when you take a deeper dive, a reunion with the Red Sox makes more sense than it appears at first glance. The White Sox were clearly not a match for Kimbrel, and with a number of other big-time relievers in their bullpen already, they could be willing to move Kimbrel if they can get some depth in return.
While his two months with the White Sox may have been a struggle, Kimbrel proved last year that he can still pitch at an elite level. His four months with the Cubs were some of the best of his career (36.2 innings, 23 SV, 64 K, 0.49 ERA), and even when you factor in the White Sox, his walk and strikeout rate were right at his career averages. Meanwhile, his fastball velocity was the same as his first go-around in Boston, confirming that he still has the stuff to overwhelm hitters.
As I mentioned in my free agents article, the Red Sox need to acquire a closer if they are serious about contending for a championship. With the shortage of great closers available, getting a stopper like Kimbrel for a somewhat affordable price is rare. Fortune favors the bold, and if the Red Sox want to stack up to the other great teams in the AL, they will make this unconventional move.
Next. 5 free agents the Red Sox should avoid. dark