Red Sox must avoid Astros SS Carlos Correa
Carlos Correa has already earned nearly every accolade one could hope for in a major league career. He’s been a number one overall pick, a Rookie of the Year, an All-Star, a Platinum Glove winner, and of course, a 2017 World Series champion. He now enters free agency at the ripe age of 27, expected to cash in like few before him, and MLBTradeRumors projects he will sign a ten-year/ $320 contract. Yet here’s the thing: Carlos Correa is not worth $320 million, because Carlos Correa is overrated.
This is not to say that Correa is bad. He is obviously a fantastic player who has achieved many great things over his still-young career. Injuries, however, have prevented him from recognizing his true potential. Correa has played more than 110 games in just two of his seven seasons, a disheartening total for a supposed franchise cornerstone. Because of this, Correa has never hit more than 30 homers, driven in more than 100 runs, and finished in the top 15 in MVP voting only once.
The rate stats also prove that Correa isn’t worthy of a mega-contract. He has batted above .280 only in his injury-shortened 2017 season and has been a below-average hitter in two of the last four seasons.
To be fair to Correa, his calling card has always been his defense at shortstop, and his 12 outs above average at a premium position was rewarded with a Platinum Glove in 2021. But Correa is already a below-average runner based on Baseball Savant’s sprint speed, indicating that a future move to third base is looming And while Correa’s offense may be elite at the shortstop position, it would likely not be enough to be considered a top-end third baseman.
Is there a chance that Correa finally stays healthy enough to put up elite offensive numbers? Absolutely. But you don’t pay $300 million to a guy based on what he can do, you pay $300 million based on what he has and will do. Correa has not shown he is worthy of being mentioned as one of the best players in baseball, and with the left side of the infield solidified for years to come, there is no need for the Red Sox to go after Correa.