5 players the Boston Red Sox must avoid in free agency
Five free agents the Red Sox should avoid
On Tuesday, I took a look at ten free agents that the Red Sox should target when the lockout ends. Today, we’re going to do the complete opposite, identifying five free agents who the Red Sox should stay away from.
A couple of factors led to these players not being a match. First and foremost is cost. Many of these players will be garnering huge contracts on the open market, and while they are undoubtedly great players, they are probably not worth the money they are going to get.
The second factor is roster fit. These players might make the Red Sox better on paper, but do they make sense to bring in given the current Red Sox roster situation? As Chaim Bloom has shown us, he is more willing to go with the younger, unheralded player than the more expensive, easy fix.
Red Sox must avoid Braves OF Joc Pederson
One of the biggest things Chaim Bloom has shown in his first two years is that he values outfielders who can contribute in all phases of the game. Whether it be Enrique Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, or Alex Verdugo, Bloom has acquired outfielders who are not just great hitters but can provide value on the bases and the field as well.
Taking that into consideration, it makes little sense for the Red Sox to pursue Joc Pederson. Pederson has long been a dangerous power threat even in the spacious Dodgers Stadium, topping the 25 home-run plateau four times from 2015 to 2019. He has also developed a reputation as a clutch postseason player, as his 12 home runs and .482 slugging percentage are both among the active playoff leaders.
The problem with Pederson, however, is that he can’t do anything else well. He ranked in the bottom ten percentile in both outfield jump and outs above average, and his value on the bases (19-for-40 in career stolen base attempts) isn’t much better. He’s never batted above .250 and has a walk rate below 10% in each of the last four years. Even his well-regarded power comes with a caveat: Only 11 of his 148 career home runs have come against lefties, and he has slashed an anemic .208/.285/.325 versus southpaws in his career.
A second division team can maybe get by with sticking Pederson in the outfield for 150 games a season. But for a contender like the Red Sox, there is no spot for such a one-dimensional player.
Red Sox must avoid Cardinals RP Andrew Miller
It’s hard to believe it was just five years ago that Andrew Miller was considered the best relief weapon in baseball. His two-year run from 2016 to 2017 was one of the best of any reliever in recent memory, as he posted an incredible 1.45 ERA and struck out 218 batters in just 137 innings. That stretch included his incredible 2016 postseason in which he allowed just three runs in 19.2 innings and nearly single-handily carried the Indians to a World Series title.
Since that stretch, however, Miller has fallen from superstar relief ace to middling reliever to borderline unusable. His 2021 was by far his worst as a reliever: His 10.0 K/9 was his lowest since 2012, while his 10.3 H/9 and 4.75 ERA were his highest since 2011. The man who many considered the most intimidating in the league was now getting battered around like few other pitchers in the game.
Besides the numbers, it’s clear just from the eye test that Miller is not the same guy anymore. His once-lethal fastball-slider combination is almost unrecognizable. His heater has fallen from 95.1 MPH in 2016 to 88.3 last season, while his slider has fallen six MPH over the same span. It’s no wonder why his K/9 has fallen by 4.5 over the previous five years.
Despite his rapid decline, Miller will continue to get chances for two reasons. First, even if he is a shell of his past self, he is still Andrew Miller, and name recognition and reputation alone will push some team to take a chance on him. The second reason he’ll get another opportunity is that he is still effective against same-side hitters. Lefties slashed just .182/.257/.288 against him, seemingly still overmatched by Miller’s underwhelming stuff.
In the age of one-batter minimum, Miller would be highly sought after for a LOOGY role (Left-Handed One Out Guy). But now that there is a three-batter minimum, Miller has no place on a contending team’s roster. Righties absolutely tee off of him, slashing .392/.489/.662. Miller simply cannot face righties, and in this day and age, that means he simply can’t pitch meaningful innings. The Red Sox should stay far away from the once-dominant lefty.
Red Sox must avoid Yankees 1B Anthony Rizzo
No player was more coveted at the trade deadline by Red Sox fans than Anthony Rizzo. A former top prospect before being dealt to the Padres, Rizzo would spend just one year in San Diego before being traded again to the Cubs. It was on the North Side where the big first baseman would become a legend, totaling 242 home runs and 748 RBIs in his ten years with the Cubs and leading the club to their first World Series title in 86 years. As great as Rizzo was on the field, he was just as special off the field, as his outgoing personality and overall positive demeanor made him a beloved figure in Chicago.
After a spectacular decade with the Cubs, Rizzo was shipped to the Yankees this past summer. Yet as he enters free agency for the first time in his career, Rizzo is clearly not the player he once was:
2014-2019: .284/.388/.513 32 HR 105 RBI per 162 games
2020-2021: .240/.343/.432 27 HR 69 RBI per 162 games
The advanced metrics also show a deep decline from Rizzo’s prime. His barrel percentage has dropped 1.6% since 2017 and his XBA has fallen 24% over the same period. His 9.0 BB% was his lowest total since 2012, while his 15.1 K% was his highest in a full season since 2016.
Though Rizzo will still likely get a multi-year deal based solely on pedigree and likeability, it is foolish to still consider him one of the best first basemen on the game. With Bobby Dalbec coming off a terrific second half and top prospect Triston Casas looming in the minors, there is no reason for the Red Sox to take a chance on him.
Red Sox must avoid Rockies SS Trevor Story
In terms of just pure tools, no player on the current free-agent market can top Trevor Story. Of all the players who have stolen 100 bases since 2016, none can top Story’s 158 home runs. A player with so much talent rarely enters the open market, and Story appears ready to cash in this winter.
Yet even his Story’s rare power-speed combination, there are signs that he is not worth the long-term investments. The first red flag is Story’s atrocious defense. The former Rockie ranked in the fourth percentile in outs above average, and the only shortstops to rank below him were famously inept defenders Xander Bogaerts, Gleyber Torres, and Didi Gregorius. Story has stated that he will not move off the shortstop position, leaving any interested team to commit long-term to a defensive liability.
The second red flag is his inability to hit away from the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. The Coors effect has been a point of subject recently with the Hall of Fame candidacies of Todd Helton and Larry Walker, but for Trevor Story, the impact is real.
Larry Walker
- Home OPS: 1.068
- Road OPS: .865
- Difference: .203
Todd Helton
- Home OPS: 1.001
- Road OPS: .837
- Difference: .164
Trevor Story
- Home OPS: .972
- Road OPS: .752
- Difference: .220
While each player is significantly better at home, Helton and Walker are both at least sill productive on the road. Story hasn’t shown that he can hit away from Coors, and with Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers locked in at third base and shortstop respectively, there is no place on the Red Sox roster for an average-hitting shortstop with no defense value.
Red Sox must avoid Astros SS Carlos Correa
Carlos Correa has already earned nearly every accolade one could hope for in a major league career. He’s been a number one overall pick, a Rookie of the Year, an All-Star, a Platinum Glove winner, and of course, a 2017 World Series champion. He now enters free agency at the ripe age of 27, expected to cash in like few before him, and MLBTradeRumors projects he will sign a ten-year/ $320 contract. Yet here’s the thing: Carlos Correa is not worth $320 million, because Carlos Correa is overrated.
This is not to say that Correa is bad. He is obviously a fantastic player who has achieved many great things over his still-young career. Injuries, however, have prevented him from recognizing his true potential. Correa has played more than 110 games in just two of his seven seasons, a disheartening total for a supposed franchise cornerstone. Because of this, Correa has never hit more than 30 homers, driven in more than 100 runs, and finished in the top 15 in MVP voting only once.
The rate stats also prove that Correa isn’t worthy of a mega-contract. He has batted above .280 only in his injury-shortened 2017 season and has been a below-average hitter in two of the last four seasons.
To be fair to Correa, his calling card has always been his defense at shortstop, and his 12 outs above average at a premium position was rewarded with a Platinum Glove in 2021. But Correa is already a below-average runner based on Baseball Savant’s sprint speed, indicating that a future move to third base is looming And while Correa’s offense may be elite at the shortstop position, it would likely not be enough to be considered a top-end third baseman.
Is there a chance that Correa finally stays healthy enough to put up elite offensive numbers? Absolutely. But you don’t pay $300 million to a guy based on what he can do, you pay $300 million based on what he has and will do. Correa has not shown he is worthy of being mentioned as one of the best players in baseball, and with the left side of the infield solidified for years to come, there is no need for the Red Sox to go after Correa.
Next. What to expect from every top Red Sox prospect in 2022. dark