10 free agents the Red Sox should target when the lockout ends
10 free agents the Red Sox should target after the lockout
In this article, we will take a look at ten free agents the Boston Red Sox should look to add once the lockout ends. To identify potential targets, I took into account both the potential holes the Red Sox currently have on their roster and the amount of money it will take to sign each player.
The Red Sox went into the offseason with a major shortage of starting pitchers, especially after Eduardo Rodriguez signed with Detroit. That hole was quickly patched up with the signings of Rich Hill, James Paxton and Michael Wacha. With that being said, here are the five biggest weaknesses that currently remain on the Red Sox roster.
- High-leverage relief pitcher
- Outfielder
- Left-handed power bat
- Utility Infielder
- First baseman
Each of the players I identified fit at least one of these categories while also not requiring the type of long-term financial commitment that GM Chaim Bloom seems unwilling to give out. So without further ado, let’s take a look at ten players who would be great fits with the Red Sox.
Red Sox free-agent target – RP Andrew Chafin
Left-handed relief pitching was not supposed to be a need for the Red Sox. Southpaws Darwinzon Hernandez and Josh Taylor both debuted in the 2019 season and quickly became two of the team’s best relievers. But while Taylor has continued to succeed as the team’s primary lefty reliever, Hernandez has struggled mightly with injuries (48 innings over the last two years) and control (7.0 BB/9 in 2021).
While Hernandez is coming off a rocky season, Andrew Chafin posted the best numbers of his career in 2021. In 68 1/3 fantastic innings between the Cubs and Athletics, Chafin had a career-low 1.83 ERA and 2.5 BB/9. The key to his success was getting batters to swing at pitches out of the zone, as he ranked in the 89th percentile in chase rate. While Chafin was one of the best in baseball at getting fellow lefties out, he was equally adept at retiring righties, holding them to a .196 batting average and a .551 OPS.
The 2021 Red Sox were built on under-the-radar acquisitions that exceeded all expectations. Enrique Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, Nick Pivetta, and Adam Ottavino all came to Boston without much fanfare, but each played a significant role in the team’s playoff runs. A relative unknown at a position without much glamor, Chafin could be another one of those pieces and fill a major hole on the team’s roster.
Red Sox free-agent target -1B Freddie Freeman
Let’s be clear: The chances of Freddie Freeman leaving the Atlanta Braves are extremely low. The only precedent for a franchise cornerstone departing a team after winning a World Series is Albert Pujols, and that only happened because the Cardinals couldn’t match the Angels’ offer. All indications are that the Braves will spend the money to bring Freeman back, and the two sides will eventually work towards a deal.
If, for some reason, Freeman doesn’t return to the Braves, the Red Sox need to pounce. Since his debut in 2010, only five players can top Freeman’s .384 on-base percentage, while only Tim Anderson, Juan Soto, and Trea Turner can best his .311 average over the last two years. A remarkably consistent player who has only missed four games over the previous four years, Freeman would be a perfect addition to a Red Sox lineup that lacks left-handed thump besides Rafael Devers.
As one of the best players in the game, Freeman will undoubtedly require a serious financial investment for the Red Sox to get him. But since he is already 33, he won’t command the same long-term risk as Correa, Story, or Bryant. If the Red Sox are serious about competing for a championship this year, they should go all-in on bringing in Freeman.
Red Sox free-agent target – CP Kenley Jansen
Ever since future Hall of Famer Craig Kimbrel departed after 2018, the Red Sox have searched for their next great closer. Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes showed flashes of being that guy, but each collapsed when given an extended look at the ninth-inning role. With Aroldis Chapman in New York, Liam Hendriks in Chicago, and Ryan Pressly in Houston, the AL is filled with elite finishers that the Red Sox simply can’t compete with.
Signing Kenley Jansen, however, would completely shift the balance of power. Jansen has been arguably the most consistent closer in baseball over the last ten years. From 2011 to 2017, Jansen posted a ridiculous 2.16 ERA and saved 32 games a year. He was still great over the following three years, but his ERA slipped to 3.38, and his K/9 dropped from 14.0 to 11.0. As he entered his age 33 season, many began to believe that Jansen’s best days were behind him.
The 2021 season would silence those doubters. Over his last 27 2/3 innings, Jansen allowed just two runs and converted all 16 save opportunities. He continued dominating right into the postseason, tossing seven scoreless innings and punching out 14. He looked like the Kenley Jansen of old, as even his cutter and sinker velocities returned to 2017 levels.
Like Freeman, Jansen will likely cost a pretty penny to bring to Boston, and it’s unlikely the Dodgers would let him go. But if the Red Sox are serious about competing over the next few years, they would finally bring in the big-name closer they have been missing.
Red Sox free-agent target – RP Joe Kelly
Now this would be fun. In his four and a half seasons in Boston, Joe Kelly was a fan-favorite among Red Sox fans. Not just for his clutch postseason pitching but also for his eccentric personality and his signature fight of Tyler Austin that unified the team during their championship run. Fans were heartbroken when Kelly departed after helping the Red Sox to their fourth World Series title in 15 years, moving west to the powerhouse Dodgers.
Four years later, the Red Sox have a chance to bring Kelly back. A reunion would be more than just a feel-good story. Kelly is still a valuable reliever. He’s coming off a season where he posted a 2.86 ERA and the lowest BB/9 ratio of his career. Kelly has always had the stuff of an elite reliever, and while he is still throwing as hard as ever (his 98.1 fastball velocity in 2021 was his highest as a Dodgers), it’s his improving control that makes him a dangerous weapon out of the bullpen.
You can never have enough pitching. That point became abundantly clear at the end of last season, when the declines of Adam Ottavino and Matt Barnes left Garrett Whitlock as the team’s only dependable reliever. Kelly, who allowed just one earned run in his 17 2/3 postseason innings with the Red Sox, has proven that he can come through in the biggest moments. Bringing him back to Boston would be a victory for all parties.
Red Sox free-agent target – IF Jed Lowrie
One of the most significantly overlooked holes on the 2021 Red Sox was their lack of infield depth. The success and durability of Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts prevented it from becoming a debilitating issue, but on the rare occasions where they needed a day off, the substitutes were atrocious.
Marwin Gonzalez: .202/.281/.285 2 HR 20 RBI
Danny Sanatana: .181/.252/.345 5 HR 14 RBI
Jonathan Arauz: .185/.274/.369 3 HR 8 RBI
It’s clear that a backup infielder is a significant need for the Red Sox this offseason, and when you take cost into consideration, there may be no better option than Jed Lowrie. A 37-year-old who played just nine games from 2019-2020, Lowrie would be a low-risk addition who has a solid floor as a good-hitting utility infielder.
One of the strongest aspects of Lowrie’s game is his well-roundedness as a switch-hitter. Lowrie’s career OPS against lefties and righties are only thirteen points apart, giving him the ability to start against any pitcher. While his Mets tenure was unquestionably a disaster, he posted a 120 OPS+ from 2017-2018 and returned to being an above-average hitter in 2021.
It’s important to manage expectations with Lowrie. He is no longer a major-league caliber starter, but as a backup infielder, Lowrie can provide some thump off the bench and an immediate upgrade over the current options on the Red Sox roster.
Red Sox free-agent target – IF Brad Miller
While the left side of the Red Sox is locked in for the foreseeable future, the right side is far more uncertain. Bobby Dalbec and Christian Arroyo both had their moments last year, but they each have had their struggles against right-handed pitchers.
Chrisitan Arroyo: Career .213 AVG against righties
Bobby Dalbec: Career .730 OPS against righties, .877 OPS against lefties
The Red Sox need a left-handed hitter to platoon at both the first base and second base position, and no free agent fits the bill more than Brad Miller. Miller’s plate discipline struggles and inability to hit lefties would likely get exposed as an everyday player, but he can provide significant value as a strong-side platoon option. He is a career .245/.329/.451 hitter against righties, well above both Dalbec and Arroyo. He is also coming off a season in which he homered 20 times in just 331 at-bats, a rate that would have been the best on the Red Sox last year.
Though no one would confuse Miller with a Gold Glover, he can provide defensive value with his versatility. He has over 100 career games at first base, second base, and shortstop, providing capable defense at each position. There are not many left-handed hitters who can play each of those three positions, and he is the perfect fit to fix that hole on the Red Sox roster.
Red Sox free-agent target – OF Kevin Pillar
One of the few decent players on the infamous 2020 Red Sox team, Kevin Pillar’s value has plummeted after a disastrous 2021 season. He slashed an anemic .231/.277/.415 while having a career-high 23.2% strikeout rate and a career-low 3.2% walk rate. Plate discipline has always been an issue for Pillar, but it now has him on the cusp of being out of the league.
As bad as his 2021 season was, however, Pillar’s previous two seasons should earn him another look. From 2019-2020, Pillar slashed an acceptable .266/.300/.440 with 27 home runs and 19 stolen bases to go along with his usual above-average defense. With his long track record of at least average offense, it’s not unreasonable to chalk up his 2021 season as an anomaly on a wretched Mets team.
With the trade of Hunter Renfroe for Jackie Bradley Jr., the Red Sox are entering the 2021 season with a .497 OPS hitter at center field. Pillar would not only be an immediate offensive upgrade over Bradley Jr., but he is a better career hitter against lefties than Verdugo and can play above-average defense at all three outfield positions. He’s no longer a starting outfielder, but Pillar would be a good backup option if the Red Sox fail to sign one of the bigger free-agent outfielders.
Red Sox free-agent target – OF Tommy Pham
Like Pillar, Tommy Pham’s stock has crashed after two straight down seasons. After a three-year span in which Pham slashed .284/.381/.475 and averaged over 20 home runs a year, Pham has slipped just .226/.335/.370 since 2020. While some of his decline can be attributed to a 2020 broken hamate bone and an offseason stabbing, Pham’s future is in jeopardy as he enters 2022 without a team.
When you look deeper at Pham’s numbers, however, his regression is much harder to pinpoint. His walk rate and strikeout rate are virtually unchanged from his prime, and he still hits the ball well (84th percentile in hard-hit rate.) Bad luck isn’t the only reason Pham has declined over the last two years, but it’s clear there is still a good player in there somewhere.
Even if Pham can’t return to pre-2020-levels, he would still fill a need on the Red Sox roster for right-handed-hitting outfielders. Both Alex Verdugo (170 points of OPS) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (40 points) are notably worse hitters against southpaws, while Pham is 50 points better. Even in his down 2021 season, his .736 OPS was significantly higher than Verdugo (.554) and Bradley Jr. (.528).
With Hunter Renfroe in Milwaukee, the Red Sox need to sign a right-handed hitting outfielder, and there are few better options than Pham.
Red Sox free-agent target – OF Eddie Rosario
Before settling on Hunter Renfroe and Enrique Hernandez in the 2020 offseason, the Red Sox made a strong push for Eddie Rosario. While he eventually signed with the Indians and the Red Sox moved on to other options, Rosario returns to the free-agent market a year later with the Red Sox still appearing like a good fit.
A lot has changed in a year, however. Like many of his Cleveland teammates, Rosario underperformed with the Indians (.685 OPS) before being shipped to the Braves at the trade deadline. The move was an unequivocal home run, as Rosario helped lead Atlanta to the division title by slugging .573 in 33 games and became a legend with his remarkable October (.337/.402/.592). While it may have seemed at first Rosario was just a half-season replacement for the injured Ronald Acuna Jr., it is difficult to imagine the Braves letting him walk.
From a Red Sox perspective, Rosario would be a great match. If the team is serious about competing, they will not go into the season with Jackie Bradley Jr. holding a starting spot. Rosario has proven himself as a consistently above-average hitter, as he slashed .281/.317/.493 from 2017-2020 and averaged 30 HR and 103 RBI per 162 games. He would provide an immediate upgrade over Bradley Jr. and give the Red Sox another left-handed power bat to compliment Rafael Devers.
Red Sox free-agent target – Kyle Schwarber
No player on this list should be a higher priority than Kyle Schwarber. From the moment he stepped on the Fenway Park field last August, he was a perfect fit. His patience and selectivity at the plate rubbed off on his teammates, and his four postseason home runs played a huge part in the Red Sox playoff run. He also endeared himself to fans with his willingness to learn the first base position and his outgoing personality.
At the beginning of this article, I reasoned that the Red Sox should look to acquire a first baseman, an outfielder, and a left-handed power hitter to complement Rafael Devers. Schwarber fits all three of those needs. His defense isn’t great, but he can be hidden in front of the Green Monster or at first base. His bat, though, has the potential to transform the offense in a way that no other current free agent can.
Obviously, Schwarber is not a perfect player. His 2020 season (.188/.308/.393) was so bad that the Cubs chose to non-tender him. 2021 was really the first season where Schwarber was an elite offensive player, and even that was obscured by the fact he missed six weeks with a hamstring injury.
Every player comes with risk, however, and the strides Schwarber made last year give encouragement that he can be an offensive force for years to come. He hit the ball as hard as anyone in the majors in 2021, ranking in the top 10% in the league in both barrel percentage and hard-hit percentage. He also cut down on his chase rate by 7%, which allowed him to post career-best numbers against lefties (.313/.411/.522). These strides should give the Red Sox faith that he is no longer the player he was in 2020.
It’s not often you get a player who can fill so many needs at once, but that’s precisely what Schwarber can offer the Red Sox. Simply put, the Red Sox were a different team when he was on the field last year, and they should do whatever it takes to retain the slugger.
5 Red Sox with the most to prove in 2022. dark. Next