5 Boston Red Sox players who have the most to prove in 2022
Which Red Sox players have the most to prove in 2022?
The Boston Red Sox proved a lot in the 2021 season. Predicted by pundits to finish fourth in the AL East, they rode an early-season nine-game winning streak to a first-place lead at the All-Star break. Despite struggling in the second half in large part due to a COVID outbreak, the Red Sox grabbed the AL Wild Card on the last day of the season.
They again proved the “experts” wrong in the postseason. They upset the New York Yankees and Gerrit Cole in the one-game playoff, then shocked the 100-win Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. Even though they lost to the Houston Astros in six games in the ALCS, the 2021 Red Sox season cannot be described as anything but a success.
Just because they exceeded expectations last year, however, doesn’t mean there aren’t players on the roster who are still feeling the pressure. Here are the five Red Sox who have the most to prove in 2022.
Red Sox starting pitcher James Paxton
Of the three pitchers the Red Sox signed to short-term deals this winter, none have a higher ceiling than James Paxton. His stuff is as good as any left-handed starter in the game, featuring a mid 90’s fastball, an upper 80’s cutter, a knee-buckling knuckle-curveball, and a changeup that gained seven inches of vertical movement from 2018 to 2020. When’s he’s on and his stuff is playing, Paxton can do some magical things, such as his seven inning, 16 strikeout performance against the Athletics in 2018, or his no-hitter against the Blue Jays the very next time out.
The issue for Paxton, however, has always been health. Over his nine years in the big leagues, Paxton has never made 30 starts or thrown more than 160 innings. He has made just six starts since 2019 due to a myriad of injuries, most notably Tommy John surgery this past April.
When Paxton returns at some point this summer, there will be a lot he has to prove. First, he needs to show he has at least a semblance of the stuff that made him an elite pitcher just a few years ago. Paxton is now entering his age 33 season with only minimal work in the last two years. It is highly unlikely that he returns with the same velocity and sharpness he had in his mid 20’s. The question is whether he will have enough in the tank to contribute meaningful innings.
Paxton also needs to prove he can handle a starter’s workload. As mentioned earlier, Paxton has not made it through an MLB season. If he can’t show that he can go deep into games, the Red Sox won’t hesitate to make him a lefty reliever. Whichever way you look at it, Paxton will have a lot to prove this season.
Red Sox first baseman Bobby Dalbec
It’s a testament to Bobby Dalbec‘s resilience and ability to make adjustments that he enters 2022 with a starting spot in the Red Sox lineup.
Through June 8, Dalbec was slashing just .185/.237/.358 with only six home runs while striking out in whopping 47.4% of plate appearances. With the trade deadline approaching, many Red Sox fans were clamoring for a replacement at first base and Dalbec to go back to the minors for more development.
Like a switch, Dalbec not only played his way back into an everyday role, but he became one of the best first baseman in baseball. From June 10 on, Dalbec posted a .275/.336/.580 slash line with 19 home runs and 54 RBI. Though he was pushed out of the starting lineup in the postseason with the acquisition of Kyle Schwarber, Dalbec proved he could hit at the big-league level.
That doesn’t mean the pressure is off Dalbec, however. Top prospect Triston Casas is coming off another solid minor league season that saw him finish in Triple-A. Casas has already shown much more plate discipline and a better all-around feel for hitting than Dalbec. With the promising youngster so close to the majors, Dalbec cannot afford to get off to another ice-cold start.
Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran
Even while Boston was rolling to a first-half division lead, all of Red Sox nation was on Duran watch. The top prospect was tearing apart Triple-A, launching 16 home runs and swiping 16 bases over just 60 games in Worchester. Duran’s collection tools were some of the best in all of the minor leagues, and Red Sox fans were eagerly anticipating the day where he would bring his electricity to the big club.
That day would come on July 16, when the Red Sox purchased his contract from Triple-A. From the moment he stepped on the Fenway Park field, however, he was completely overmatched. In just 114 at-bats, he struck out forty times and walked only four times. A player expected to provide a major boost to the team during their playoff run was sent back down on September 1.
Duran will have a role on a major league team. His plus speed and defense gives him a floor of at least a fourth outfielder, but whether or not he becomes something more depends on how his plate discipline develops. Already at 25 years old, this is the season Duran needs to show that he is capable of making such adjustments.
Red Sox reliever Matt Barnes
If you were the pinpoint the biggest reason why the Red Sox fell from 55-36 in the first half to 37-35 in the second, it’d be hard not to point the finger at Matt Barnes. After years of solid-if-unspectacular middle relief work, Barnes was given the closer’s job in spring training and ran with it. He posted a 2.61 first-half ERA and converted 19 saves, earned an All-Star berth and a contract extension in the process.
Even in the success, however, there was an underlying issue. Barnes pitched 38 innings in the first half, his most since 2018. Barnes desperately needed the All-Star break to recover, but instead, he was forced to throw 25 pitches in a meaningless exhibition game. He managed to continue his success throughout the rest of July, but his arm was a ticking time bomb.
That bomb finally went off in August. His 13.50 ERA on the month cost him the closer’s role and eventually a spot on the postseason roster. One of the most valuable players on the Red Sox over the first half of the season pitched just one mop-up inning in October.
There are many reasons to be concerned about Barnes. His fastball velocity dropped around two miles per hour in the second half, and while his curveball was still effective, hitters were able to sit on the hook without fearing the heat. His control also fell off: He walked nine in the last two months after walking just eleven batters over the first four months. With limited control of diminished stuff, it’s no wonder why Barnes couldn’t get anyone out.
Barnes does have a history of falling off the second half only to come back good as new the following season. In 2018, the last time Barnes threw as many first-half innings, he had 6.41 second-half ERA only to rebound with a typical mid-three ERA the following year. As the longest-tenured pitcher on the Red Sox roster, Barnes will get the first shot at the closer’s role in 2022, but if he is the same pitcher he was in August, he won’t be long for the job.
Red Sox starting pitcher Chris Sale
In a sense, Chris Sale already proved a lot just in the last season. He proved that he could return after missing two years with arm injuries and that his stuff at least resembled that which made him one of the best starters in baseball. Sale deserves immense credit not just for returning, but for throwing meaningful innings down the stretch and helping the Red Sox make the postseason.
What he didn’t prove, however, is that he was still THE Chris Sale. Over his first seven starts, Sale was getting the results he was used to getting (5-0, 2.57 ERA), but in a far less dominant fashion. His 10.03 K/9 would have been his lowest since 2016, while his 9.5 H/9 would have been the highest of his entire career.
Obviously, it would be unfair to expect Sale to be in vintage form after two years away from baseball. Yet instead of improving as the season went along, his struggles only got worse. In two games the Red Sox needed to have at the end of the season, Sale allowed five runs in just 7 2/3 innings, including a two-inning, four-walk disaster in Game 162 that could have easily forced the Red Sox to play on the road in the Wild Card game.
The peak of Sale’s downfall came in Game Two of the ALDS. With the Rays already up 1-0 in the series, the Red Sox desperately needed a huge start for their former ace. Instead, Sale would get rocked for five runs in the first inning and didn’t see a second. He was better in the ALCS against the Astros (it would have been hard to be worse), but the Red Sox still lost both of his starts and would drop the series in six.
There’s no assurance that Sale will ever be the same pitcher again. Not many pitchers miss two full seasons and return at the same level, especially if they are in their early thirties like Sale. The only thing that is certain is that the Red Sox, who owe the lefty $97.5 million over the next three years and have an uncertain rotation after Nathan Eovaldi, need Sale to be productive to have any chance in the AL East.
Next. What to expect from every top Red Sox prospect in 2022. dark