What to look for from every top Red Sox prospect in 2022
What to look for from every top Red Sox prospect in 2021
It was hard to believe that it was just three years ago that the Red Sox had the worst-ranked farm system in baseball. It wasn’t a problem when the team was winning the World Series, but when the Red Sox slipped to third place in 2019, it cost GM Dave Dombrowski his job and ultimately a trade of franchise icon Mookie Betts.
Over the last few years, however, a combination of the development from unheralded prospects, better drafting, and savvy trades have transformed the Red Sox system into one of the best in baseball.
In this article, we will look at what reasonable expectations would be for each of the top ten prospects in MLB.com’s Red Sox rankings. Much of the information I gathered came from the comprehensive scouting reports from the site, as well as minor league stats from baseball-reference.
So without further ado, let’s kick things off with one of the fastest players in all of minor league baseball.
10: CF Gilberto Jimenez
What to look for: An improved approach at the plate
In terms of pure tools, there are few prospects in the Red Sox system who can top Gilberto Jimenez. MLB.com describes his speed as “plus-plus” and predicts he will one day be a “prolific base stealer.” He also possesses solid raw power, even if it hasn’t shown up in games yet, and has all the makings of a great defender with his elite speed and instincts.
For Jimenez to take the next step, however, he needs to improve his plate discipline. He stuck out 86 times against only 16 walks at High-A in 2021, a ratio that will only increase as he moves up the minor league levels. Jimenez’s struggles to draw walks or put the ball in play severely limit his ability to get on base and, therefore, his chances to steal bases.
Many young players have similar struggles, but at 21-year-olds and stuck at Single-A, it’s time for Jimenez to show he can make some adjustments. Jimenez will likely start this season at Double-A, a jump that many scouts believe is the toughest in all of the minor leagues. Jimenez will need to improve his approach at the plate or risk being just another elite talent who flames out before ever reaching the majors.
9: 3B/1B Blaze Jordan
What to look for: Holding his own at a full-season level
Though he doesn’t turn 20 until December, Blaze Jordan has been in the national spotlight for nearly nine years. He first gained recognition when he won a national Home Run Derby at eleven years old and won the High School Home Run Derby at the 2019 All-Star game in Cleveland. Jordan reclassed to the 2020 draft class and was taken in the third round at just 17 years and five months.
Expectations were high for Jordan in his first minor league season, and he didn’t disappoint. Over 19 games in the Florida Complex League, Jordan slashed .362/.408/.667 with four home runs and 19 RBI. His strong performance got him a callup to Single-A Salem, and while he didn’t hit nearly as well (.734 OPS), he did hit two home runs in nine games.
Jordan has major league power right now. That much has been evident since he was blasting 500-foot home runs at age 13. The question is whether the rest of his game will develop enough for him to become an everyday player at the big-league level.
Jordan has worked hard to improve his quickness and range at the hot corner, but most scouts project a future switch across the diamond. Like many young sluggers, Jordan has some swing and miss to his game, though his 18.4 strikeout percentage is far from unreasonable.
Jordan’s next step is proving he can hang at full-season ball. At just nineteen years old, Jordan will likely face some challenges in his first full season at Salem, but if he maintains his power and complements his strikeout totals with a sizeable amount of walks, it will qualify as a successful season.
8: SP Jay Groome
What to look for: Another season of good health
It feels like Jay Groome has been in the Red Sox system forever. Just 17 when he was taken with the twelfth overall pick in 2016, Groome has been slowly making his way up the Red Sox system while battling a litany of injuries. Tommy John surgery, lat and forearm issues, and the cancellation of the 2020 minor league season combined to limit Groome to just 66 innings as a pro in his first five seasons.
Groome finally managed to stay healthy in 2021, starting as many games last year (23) as he did in his minor league career to that point. His 4.81 ERA points to a disappointing season, but his 12.4 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 are encouraging signs. He also impressed in his three starts upon being called up to Portland, posting a 2.30 ERA and striking out 26 batters in 15.2 innings.
Groome has all the tools of a legitimate major league starter. He possesses a low-mid 90’s fastball that he complements with three average-to-above-average secondary offerings, most notably a biting, mid-80s slider. Scouts believe he has a clean delivery that will allow him to stick in the rotation.
The question for Groome will always be health. If he can make another 20 starts like he did last year, expect him to move up the prospect rankings and possibly make a late-season debut.
7: SP Bryan Mata
What to look for: A successful return from Tommy John surgery
Bryan Mata burst onto the Red Sox prospect radar with a breakout season in 2019. After a 2018 season in which he struggled with his control and walked over seven batters per nine innings, Mata cut that number in half the following year, allowing his elite stuff to play up. Mata posted a 1.75 ERA over ten starts at Salem and earned a midseason promotion to Double-A Portland.
Mata’s fastball is arguably the best in the Red Sox system. He features a sinking two-seamer that can touch 97 and a four-seamer that can reach triple digits. He pairs that with a slider and a changeup that can be plus pitches at times, giving him a repertoire that may already be major league ready.
The issue for Mata has always been inconsistency. He too often follows great locations with poor ones, solid outings with disasters. That unevenness plagued him again in his Double-A stint, as he had 5.03 in his 53.2 innings in Portland. Mata was expected to try his luck again at Double-A in 2020, but the coronavirus pandemic wiped out his age 21 season.
Mata’s career was further decimated when he underwent Tommy John surgery in April of 2021. He will return sometime this summer over two and a half years since he threw his last pitch. With a layoff that great, all Red Sox fans can hope for is that Mata still possesses a semblance of the elite stuff that once made him the top pitching prospect in the Red Sox system.
6: SP Brayan Bello
What to look for: Proof that 2021 wasn’t a fluke
With Mata on the shelf for the last few years, Brayan Bello has taken over the mantle as the best pitcher in the Red Sox minor league system. Bello signed with the Red Sox in 2017 at an 18-year-old and spent his first two years in the system dominating the Dominican Summer League and rookie ball. He took his licks in the Single-A Greenville in 2019 (5.43), but his 3.13 K/BB ratio showed he wasn’t overmatched.
It was this past year, however, that Bello really put himself on the map. Bello earned a callup to Double-A after posting a 2.27 over six starts in Greenville, and although he wasn’t nearly as sharp in Portland, his 12.3 K/9 speaks to his swing-and-miss stuff.
Though his mid 90’s fastball and average slider/changeup combination are nothing to write home about, his above-average command of each pitch allows him to generate strikeouts.
What Bello needs to prove in 2022 is that his breakout season was not a fluke. His only experience having success in full-season ball has been his six-game stint at Greenville last year, and he failed to show he has mastered Double-A. Bello will have another chance to prove himself in Portland, but as he now enters his age 23 season, the clock is ticking.
5: SS Jeter Downs
What to look for: Proof that 2020 WAS a fluke
The biggest disappointment last year in the Red Sox minor league system was undoubtedly Jeter Downs. The centerpiece of the Mookie Betts deal, Downs entered the season as the second-ranked prospect in the Red Sox organization and the 49th ranked prospect in all of baseball. In his previous two years in the Reds and the Dodgers organization, Downs combined for 51 bases and 37 home runs, a rate set of skills for a middle-infield prospect.
Yet while Downs still flashed the elite tools in his first season in the Red Sox organization, the rest of the game fell apart. He hit just .191 while showing abysmal plate discipline (38 BB, 131 K) that limited his ability to steal bases. Downs struggles only got worse as the season went on, as he went just 3-56 over a stretch in mid-August.
Despite his down season, the shine hasn’t completely worn off on Downs. Scouts still believe he has the hands and the arm strength to be a shortstop, and he would be an above-average second baseman if he were ever forced to move there.
And while his season at the plate was unquestionably a failure, he did manage to hit 14 home runs and swipe 18 bases. He also showed improvement in the Arizona Fall League, walking 14 times in just 72 plate appearances and smacking five home runs.
Downs still enters this year as the fifth-ranked prospect in the Red Sox system, which will be his first season where he will not be young for his level. Downs still has a significant role in the Red Sox future plans, but he needs to prove he can make the adjustments from a lost 2021 season.
4: 2B Nick Yorke
What to look for: Continued production at Double-A
If Brayan Bello was the breakout pitching prospect of the Red Sox minor league system last year, Nick Yorke was the breakout hitter. The Red Sox drew a lot of criticism when they took the relatively unknown Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft, as many believed that the Sox took him just to save money for Blaze Jordan later in the draft.
York, however, has proven to be worth the pick. In his first season in professional baseball, Yorke batted .325 between Salem and Greenville and displayed more power than scouts believed he had. Though he likely will have to move to second base from shortstop due to a below-average arm and range, he still profiles an above-average major league who can hit .300 with 20-home-run power.
The next step for Yorke is to prove that he can hit at the Double-A level. Scouts believe that the jump from Single-A to Double-A is the toughest in all of the minor leagues, and while Yorke is undoubtedly an advanced hitter for his age, he is likely to find some resistance for the first time in his professional career.
If Yorke can continue to produce in Portland, however, he will enter the conversation as one of the best hitters in all of minor league baseball.
3: CF Jarren Duran
What to look for: The ability to adjust at the big-league level
The only prospect on this list to spend time in the major leagues, Jarren Duran’s stint in Boston was unquestionably a disappointment. Expected to be a sparkplug when he got called up in July, Duran posted a 51 OPS+ in 33 games before getting sent back down in early September.
Like many young players, a lack of plate discipline hurt Duran in the majors. He struck out in nearly 37% of plate appearances while walking just four times. And while his poor strike-zone management may have been excused if he was hitting home runs and stealing bases at the rate he did in Triple-A, Duran only hit two homers and swiped one base with the Red Sox.
No matter what, Duran is going to have a role in the major leagues. Scouts rate his speed as “plus-plus,” and while he is still adjusting to the outfield after moving there from second base, his wheels already give him a solid base to work from. Duran’s newly added power (16 home runs in 2021 after eight in his first two minor league seasons) gives him even more tools in his toolbox.
Duran can contribute to the Red Sox right now as a fourth outfielder, but his true potential is way higher. Duran has all the makings of a 5-tool-superstar, but unless he can make adjustments at the big-league level and develop better plate discipline, his struggles from 2021 will only continue.
2: 1B Triston Casas
What to look for: An MLB debut
Triston Casas entered the 2021 season as both the best hitter and the top-ranked prospect in the Red Sox system, and he lived up to the lofty expectations. It didn’t start off so hot, however, as he struggled moving back and forth between the U.S Olympic team and the Sea Dogs and hit just .272 with six home runs through mid-July.
When he returned in early August, he was a changed player. He hit .302 with seven home runs in 30 games before earning a call-up to Triple-A Worchester. Casas’s production dipped upon his debut with the Woo Sox, but he still worked eight walks and had an .866 OPS.
Even with the underwhelming start of the season, Casas ended the season the same place he started it: As one of the top prospects in baseball.
There’s no secret to Casas’s profile. He doesn’t run well, and while he has good hands in the field, his large frame prevents him from being a good defender. Casas needs to hit to provide value to a baseball team, but fortunately for him, he hasn’t seen any level of pitching that he can’t mash.
He pairs his plus power with a tremendous eye and an overall above-average hit tool. While Casas has only played nine games above the Double-A level, all signs point to him being an All-Star caliber hitter.
Casas has nothing left to prove at the minor league level. Whether it be Single-A, Double-A, pandemic summer camp, or the U.S Olympic team, Casas has impressed at every stop. And though the Red Sox will likely send him to a tune-up at the Triple-A level, it’s only a matter of time before he adds the majors to that list.
1: SS Marcelo Mayer
What to look for: Signs of Greatness
It’s not often that a player is the number nine prospect in baseball the year after he was drafted, but it’s also not often that a player like Marcelo Mayer comes around. Mayer was MLB Pipeline’s top-rated prospect headed into last year’s draft, and the Red Sox couldn’t believe his luck when he fell to them with the number four pick.
Mayer didn’t disappoint in his short stint with the FCL Red Sox, posting a solid .275/.377/.440 slash line and displaying an advanced approach at the plate.
The expectations for Mayer are already off the charts, as he has already drawn comparisons to fellow sweet-swinging, left-handed shortstop Corey Seager. Mayer rates well above average in hitting, arm strength, and fielding, while scouts rave about his easy raw power.
The only relative hole in his game is his speed, but he makes up for it with great instincts and a quick first step. Simply put, Mayers has all the makings of a future superstar and his Baseball America ranking more than backs that up.
Entering his age 19 season, Mayer will likely start his season at Single-A Salem as one of the youngest players at his level. It is inevitable that Mayer will face some struggles during his minor league career, but that doesn’t mean Red Sox fans can’t look for signs of greatness. Mayer has the chance to be a generational player, and he should show us why in 2022.
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