Red Sox History: Analyzing the cases for all nine Hall of Fame hopefuls
By Daniel Fox
Red Sox SP: Roger Clemens
Career Stats: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 143 ERA+, 4672 SO, 139.2 WAR
Year on Ballot: 10th
Current Percentage: 79.5%
The best pitcher of his generation, Roger Clemens put up video game numbers for over two decades. An 11-time All-Star and record seven-time Cy Young winner, Clemens is third all-time in both strikeouts (4672) and WAR (139.2). He led the league in wins four times, strikeouts five times, and ERA seven times.
He posted 11 seasons with at least 5.0 WAR, including six seasons with at least 5.0, and finished top 10 in the MLB in the category an unfathomable 15 times. There is no reasonable argument one could make that Clemens’ on-field performance is not worthy of Hall of Fame induction.
The biggest flaw in Clemens’s candidacy, of course, is his connection to performance-enhancing drugs and the repeated lies he made in court of his innocence. He also had several off-the-field scandals, most notable an accusation of an affair with country singer Mindy McCready when she was just 15 years old. For many voters, this puts an unmistakable stain on his on-field accomplishments and makes him unworthy induction.
Yet Clemens has been slowly gaining support over the past couple of years for a number of reasons. First off, unlike ballot mates Alex Rodriguez and Ramirez, Clemens was not suspended for steroids, as there were no explicit rules against it at the time. The result is Clemens polling 30% to 40% higher than both players.
Secondly, Clemens’ dominance before taking PEDs already made him Hall of Fame worthy. If you accept the widely held belief that Clemens began taking steroids in 1999, he was actually a better pitcher before cheating (223-124, 151 ERA+, 3153 K, 2.8 BB/9, 8.7 K/9) than after (121-60, 129 ERA+, 1519 K, 3.1 BB/9, 8.3 K/9). His 95.8 WAR before 1999 was already 35 points above the Hall of Fame standard, making the numbers he put up with steroids irrelevant to his Hall of Fame case.
Though Clemens has steadily gained votes since debuting on the ballot with 37.6% of the vote, his climb has been too slow to have any real chance of induction. Clemens has gained just 7.5% since 2017, essentially all of which from first-time voters and not past voters changing their votes.
It’s been more of the same this year, as Clemens has flipped just one voter from 2021. In his last year of eligibility, this is the end of the road for Clemens, who, like Schilling, can only that the Veterans Committee is kinder.
Vote Prediction: 65%