Red Sox History: Analyzing the cases for all nine Hall of Fame hopefuls
Red Sox SP: Jake Peavy
Career Stats: 152-126, 3.63 ERA, 110 ERA+ 2207 SO, 39.2 WAR
Year on Ballot: 1st
Current Percentage: 0%
From 2004-2008, there was arguably no better pitcher in baseball than Jake Peavy. Over those five years, he went 68-44, had a 2.95 ERA, struck out 1010 in 968 innings, and averaged 4.8 WAR per season. His best season came in 2007, when he led the NL with 19 wins, a 2.54 ERA, and 240 strikeouts, capturing the Cy Young award in the process.
Unfortunately for Peavy, it takes more than five good years to make the Hall of Fame. After 2008, he pitched more than 150 innings only twice and never again won more than 12 games. After an injury-plagued 2009 season in which he was dealt to the White Sox, Peavy had back-to-back poor seasons in 2010 (7-6, 4.63 ERA) and 2011 (7-7, 4.92 ERA).
He had one more All-Star campaign in 2012 (3.37 ERA, 194 strikeouts) before being just a marginal part of the 2013 World Series champion Red Sox and the 2014 champion San Fransisco Giants.
Similar to Pierzynski and Crawford, Peavy is well behind the Hall of Fame standard at his position. The average JAWS line for a Hall of Fame pitcher starting pitcher is 73.0/49.8/61.4, and Peavy (39.2/30.7/35.0) is not in the same ballpark. His case is also hurt by a terrible postseason resume (1-5, 7.98 ERA).
Still, with a strong peak and a Cy Young Award to his name, don’t be surprised if Peavy garners a couple of votes. His numbers compare favorably to fellow 2000’s Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (110-89, 3.74 ERA, 19.4/23.4/21.7), who already has three votes.
Vote Prediction: 0.8%