Red Sox History: Analyzing the cases for all nine Hall of Fame hopefuls

Analyzing the cases of all nine Red Sox on the 2022 Hall of Fame ballot

After winning four World Series titles in eighteen years, it’s no wonder that recent Hall of Fame ballots are filled with former Red Sox greats. This year’s ballot is no different, as nine former Sox players are eligible for induction. But how many have a realistic shot at Cooperstown?

One of the main tools I used when evaluating Hall of Fame cases was JAWS. Invented by Hall of Fame guru Jay Jaffe, JAWS averages a player’s career WAR and the WAR of their seven-year peak.

This makes it possible to compare players with short careers but long peals and players with long careers but no real period of dominance. By measuring a player’s JAWS to the average score at their position, it becomes easier to tell if they are Hall of Fame worthy.

I also used the Hall of Fame data collected by Ryan Thibodaux. Thibodaux’s spreadsheet tracks all public Hall of Fame ballots, revealing how many voters they have gained and lost year to year.

Red Sox C: A.J. Pierzynski

Career Stats: .280/319/.420, 94 OPS+, 2043 H, 188 HR, 909 RBI, 23.8 WAR

Years on Ballot: 1st

Current Percentage: 0

By far the least impressive resume on this list is former Red Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski. About the best thing you can say about Pierzynski is that he was a durable and a comparatively good hitter for a catcher. Pierzynski had 12 straight years with over 125 games played, and his 2,043 hits are 12th all-time among catchers.

Yet unlike most good-hitting catchers, he was much more of a contact hitter than a power hitter. He hit more than 20 home runs just once and drove in more than 75 runs just twice. This lack of power and patience combined to give Pierzynski a mediocre 94 OPS+, 200th all-time among catchers.

While Pierzynski underwhelmed at the plate, he was not much better behind it. Fangraphs rates him 88.0 runs above average over his career, but his 6-3, 250-pound frame severely limited his mobility.

He never won a Gold Glove or was considered one of the premier defensive catchers in the league. Pierzynski’s resume is also light on accolades, as he made just two All-Star teams and never finished above 30th in MVP voting.

All told, Pierzynski doesn’t have a serious case for the Hall of Fame. His 23.8 career WAR and 20.9 JAWS are both nearly half of the standard for Hall of Fame catchers. Still, Pierzynski deserves praise for carving out a 19-year career and for being an integral part of the 2005 World Series Champion White Sox.

Vote Prediction: 0.4%

Red Sox SP: Jake Peavy

Career Stats: 152-126, 3.63 ERA, 110 ERA+ 2207 SO, 39.2 WAR                               

Year on Ballot: 1st                                                                                                                       

Current Percentage: 0%

From 2004-2008, there was arguably no better pitcher in baseball than Jake Peavy. Over those five years, he went 68-44, had a 2.95 ERA, struck out 1010 in 968 innings, and averaged 4.8 WAR per season. His best season came in 2007, when he led the NL with 19 wins, a 2.54 ERA, and 240 strikeouts, capturing the Cy Young award in the process.

Unfortunately for Peavy, it takes more than five good years to make the Hall of Fame. After 2008, he pitched more than 150 innings only twice and never again won more than 12 games. After an injury-plagued 2009 season in which he was dealt to the White Sox, Peavy had back-to-back poor seasons in 2010 (7-6, 4.63 ERA) and 2011 (7-7, 4.92 ERA).

He had one more All-Star campaign in 2012 (3.37 ERA, 194 strikeouts) before being just a marginal part of the 2013 World Series champion Red Sox and the 2014 champion San Fransisco Giants.

Similar to Pierzynski and Crawford, Peavy is well behind the Hall of Fame standard at his position. The average JAWS line for a Hall of Fame pitcher starting pitcher is 73.0/49.8/61.4, and Peavy (39.2/30.7/35.0) is not in the same ballpark. His case is also hurt by a terrible postseason resume (1-5, 7.98 ERA).

Still, with a strong peak and a Cy Young Award to his name, don’t be surprised if Peavy garners a couple of votes. His numbers compare favorably to fellow 2000’s Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum (110-89, 3.74 ERA, 19.4/23.4/21.7), who already has three votes.

Vote Prediction: 0.8%

Red Sox RP: Jonathan Papelbon

Career Stats: 41-36, 2.44 ERA, 177 ERA+, 808 SO, 368 SV, 23.3 WAR

Current Year on Ballot: 1st                                                                                                                           

Current Percentage: 0.7%

During his tenure with the Red Sox, Jonathan Papelbon was arguably the best closer in baseball this side of Mariano Rivera. From 2006 to 2011, his 257 saves led all of baseball, while his 88.9% save percentage was fourth among closers with at least 100 saves.

His 2.32 ERA in that span, meanwhile, was second to Rivera among relievers with at least 400 innings. He had three seasons with an ERA under 2.00, made four All-Star teams, and saved at least 30 games in each of his six seasons at the Red Sox closer.

Papelbon was even more than spectacular in the postseason. He didn’t allow a run and converted all seven save opportunities during the Red Sox 2007 and 2008 postseason runs.

After blowing Game 162 of the Red Sox’s 2011 September collapse, Papelbon signed a four-year/$50 million deal with the Phillies. Papelbon kept up his dominance in Philadelphia, saving 123 games over four years to go along with a sparkling 2.32 ERA.

His success on the mound, however, was undercut by a significant velocity dip and a series of immature acts, including making an obscene gesture to fans that got him suspended seven games. Papelbon was dealt to the Nationals at the 2015 trade deadline, and, after a career-high 4.37 ERA and attempting to choke Bryce Harper, was out of baseball by age 35.

Papelbon was on a Hall of Fame course through age 34, but his early retirement leaves him well short of the WAR standard for Hall of Fame relievers. His career WAR is 15 wins shy of the standard, while his JAWS is eight behind. Yet the relief pitcher JAWS is challenged to evaluate because Goose Gossage and Mariano Rivera are both outliers that distort the average.

To look at it another way, Papelbon is 10th among relievers in JAWS, ahead of Hall of Famers Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers, and Bruce Sutter. This is not to say that he should be slam-dunk Hall of Famer, but his decade-long run of dominance should be enough to prevent him from being shut out on the ballot.

Vote Prediction: 1.2% 

Red Sox OF: Manny Ramirez

Career Stats: .312/.411/.585 ,154 OPS+, 2574 H, 555 HR, 1831 RBI, 69.3 WAR   

Year on Ballot: 6th                                                                                                                       

Current Percentage: 40.4%

The pros and cons of Manny Ramirez’s candidacy are pretty cut and dry. Whatever you feel about him and his antics, there is no denying he is one of the greatest right-handed batters of the last 50 years. He was first and foremost a gifted pure hitter, finishing in the top ten on average seven times and total bases nine times. He hit for tremendous power as well, hitting more than 40 home runs five times and over 30 home runs twelve times.

Ramirez supplemented his hitting ability with an all-time great eye. He finished in the top ten in walks six times and led the league in on-base percentage. Manny’s raw hitting ability led to 12 All-Star teams and eight straight years in the top 10 in MVP voting. Any way you slice it, Ramirez was among the best hitters of the generation.

There’s a reason, however, Ramirez is still on the ballot. As good as Manny was at the plate, he might have been just as bad on the field and on the bases. Over his career, he cost his team 35 runs on the bases and 276 runs in the field. That put a severe dent in his WAR slash line, although he is still at or around the left-field standard at each of the three WAR categories.

Yet these flaws pale in comparison to his off-field issues. His Red Sox tenure ended abruptly after he pushed 64-year-old traveling secretary Jack Mccormick to the ground after Mccormick failed to provide enough tickets. In 2011, he was arrested for domestic assault after reportedly slapping his wife.

Ramirez is also one of the faces of the MLB steroid problem, as he was suspended twice for performance-enhancing drugs, the latter one ending his career. For many Hall of Fame voters, these off-the-field controversies overshadow what a great player he was on it.

Though he debuted at a solid 23.8%, Ramirez’s vote total has increased just 5% over the last four years even as the ballot has cleared up. It’s clear that the voters who are against Ramirez’s candidacy aren’t changing their minds anytime soon.

The only thing that might be able to affect Ramirez’s fate is if fellow PED-suspendee Alex Rodriguez gets elected before Ramirez, but with just four years of eligibility remaining, it’s doubtful that Ramirez has enough time to make up the ground.

Vote Prediction: 25.4%

Red Sox RP: Billy Wagner

Career Stats: 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 187 ERA+, 1196 SO, 27.7 WAR                               

Year on Ballot: 7th                                                                                                                   

Current Percentage: 47.9%

On a per-inning basis, there may have been no better pitcher than Billy Wagner. His 11.9 K/9 and .098 WHIP are the best in MLB history among pitchers who threw over 800 innings, while his 187+ is second to Mariano Rivera. Wagner was not just dominant; he was also remarkably consistent.

Besides his injury-plagued 2000 season, he never had an ERA over 3.00 or struck out less than ten batters per nine innings. He saved at least 30 games in nine different seasons and made seven All-Star teams in his thirteen full seasons.

The main knock on Wagner’s candidacy is his lack of innings. Wagner did not have his first full season until age 25 and retired at 38 after a career-low 1.43 ERA in 2010. Because of this, Wagner pitched in just 903 innings in his career.

If elected, this total would be the lowest of any non-Negro League, Hall of Fame pitcher, over 100 innings less than Bruce Sutter. Wagner is also plagued by his poor postseason performance. Although it was in a small, 11.2 inning sample size, Wagner had a 10.03 career playoff ERA.

One could argue that the most memorable moment of Wagner’s career was allowing a game-winning home run to Yadier Molina in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS. As unfair as it may be, these are the type of moments that stick in the mind of voters, especially with a pitcher with so few innings.

After debuting on the ballot in 2016 with just 10.5% of the vote, Wagner’s candidacy has gained steam as of late. This is especially true after the election of inferior reliever Lee Smith, as Wagner’s vote percentage went from 16.7% in 2019 to 31.7% in 2020 to 46.4% in 2021. Wagner’s candidacy, once hopeless, now appears on the fast track to Cooperstown.

While he is no Rivera or Eckersley, Wagner has one of the strongest Hall of Fame cases of any reliever. As the years go on, voters seem more focused on his decade-long period of dominance than his short career or postseason underperformance.

The momentum has continued this year, as Wagner has already gained eight votes through the first 132 ballots. It now seems only a matter of time before Wagner has a plaque in Cooperstown

Vote Prediction: 55%

Red Sox SP: Curt Schilling

Career Stats: 216-146, 3.46 ERA, 127 ERA+, 3116 SO, 79.5 WAR                             

Year on Ballot: 10th                                                                                                                     

Current Percentage: 58.2%

There has not been a player in the history of the Hall of Fame who has caused more damage to his candidacy with his words than Curt Schilling. Schilling debuted on the ballot with a sold 38.8% of the vote and steadily gained support in the coming years.

Then came the tweet supporting the lynching of journalists, the sharing of a transphobic meme, the support of the January 6th insurrection, and, finally, the plea to the Hall of Fame to take him off the ballot.

All these controversies seem to have finally taken their toll, as Schilling has lost sixteen votes so far this year and has slipped from 70% of the vote to 56%. Now in his tenth year on the ballot, Schilling’s candidacy is on life support.

The two biggest knocks on Schilling are his relatively measly 216 wins and a mediocre 3.46 ERA. Both can be explained when put into context, however. Schilling’s lowly win total is a result of the late start to his career, as he didn’t have his full season until age 26 and his first All-Star season until age 30.

During his peak years of 1997-2004, he averaged 16 wins a year even while spending half of those years pitching for a terrible Phillies team. In the end, his win total is just three less than recent Hall of Fame inductee Pedro Martinez.

Schilling’s ERA also needs to be put into context. His 3.46 ERA would be 71st among the 83 starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame. Yet it should be noted that Schilling played during the most hitter-friendly environment in the history of baseball in two of the most hitter-friendly ballparks (Chase Field and Fenway Park).

His 127+, which takes into account the run-scoring environment of the era and the ballpark a pitcher pitched in, is the same as first-ballot Hall of Famers Tom Seaver and Bob Gibson.

The HOF monitor, in which a score of 100 represents a Hall of Fame-worthy player, rates Schilling at a lofty 171. His JAWS score of 64.0 is also above the Hall of Fame standard for starting pitchers (61.4). Yet it is highly likely that none of this is going to matter.

Schilling was just sixteen votes of election last year, but he’s already lost that many votes this cycle. It looks like Schilling will have to test his luck with the 16-man Veteran’s Committee in a few years.

Vote Prediction: 58%

Red Sox SP: Roger Clemens

Career Stats: 354-184, 3.12 ERA, 143 ERA+, 4672 SO, 139.2 WAR                             

Year on Ballot: 10th                                                                                                                       

Current Percentage: 79.5%

The best pitcher of his generation, Roger Clemens put up video game numbers for over two decades. An 11-time All-Star and record seven-time Cy Young winner, Clemens is third all-time in both strikeouts (4672) and WAR (139.2). He led the league in wins four times, strikeouts five times, and ERA seven times.

He posted 11 seasons with at least 5.0 WAR, including six seasons with at least 5.0, and finished top 10 in the MLB in the category an unfathomable 15 times. There is no reasonable argument one could make that Clemens’ on-field performance is not worthy of Hall of Fame induction.

The biggest flaw in Clemens’s candidacy, of course, is his connection to performance-enhancing drugs and the repeated lies he made in court of his innocence. He also had several off-the-field scandals, most notable an accusation of an affair with country singer Mindy McCready when she was just 15 years old. For many voters, this puts an unmistakable stain on his on-field accomplishments and makes him unworthy induction.

Yet Clemens has been slowly gaining support over the past couple of years for a number of reasons. First off, unlike ballot mates Alex Rodriguez and Ramirez, Clemens was not suspended for steroids, as there were no explicit rules against it at the time. The result is Clemens polling 30% to 40% higher than both players.

Secondly, Clemens’ dominance before taking PEDs already made him Hall of Fame worthy. If you accept the widely held belief that Clemens began taking steroids in 1999, he was actually a better pitcher before cheating (223-124, 151 ERA+, 3153 K, 2.8 BB/9, 8.7 K/9) than after (121-60, 129 ERA+, 1519 K, 3.1 BB/9, 8.3 K/9). His 95.8 WAR before 1999 was already 35 points above the Hall of Fame standard, making the numbers he put up with steroids irrelevant to his Hall of Fame case.

Though Clemens has steadily gained votes since debuting on the ballot with 37.6% of the vote, his climb has been too slow to have any real chance of induction. Clemens has gained just 7.5% since 2017, essentially all of which from first-time voters and not past voters changing their votes.

It’s been more of the same this year, as Clemens has flipped just one voter from 2021. In his last year of eligibility, this is the end of the road for Clemens, who, like Schilling, can only that the Veterans Committee is kinder.

Vote Prediction: 65%

Red Sox DH: David Ortiz

Career Stats: .286/.380/.552, 141 OPS+, 2472 H, 541 HR, 1768 RBI, 55.3 WAR     

Year on Ballot: 10th                                                                                                                       

Current Percentage: 83.6%

The biggest story of the 2022 Hall of Fame election cycle is whether David Ortiz can sneak over the 75% threshold and become just the fourth majority DH to be elected to Cooperstown. According to Jason Sardell’s model, Ortiz is projected to get 77.6% of the vote and get elected in 79% of the simulations.

There is no doubt that the elections of Edgar Martinez and Harold Baines have helped Ortiz’s odds. Though Frank Thomas was the first Hall of Famer to play most of his games at DH, Martinez redefined the position, as the league’s top DH award is named after him. Martinez was no doubt the more efficient player, as he has Ortiz beat handily in average (.312 to .286), on-base percentage (.418 to .380), and JAWS (55.8 to 45.3).

What Ortiz lacks in rate stats, however, he makes up in volume. Ortiz blows Martinez out of the water in home runs (555 to 309), total bases (4765 to 3718), and RBI (1768 to 1283). All in all, Martinez and Ortiz are pretty similar players, and Ortiz would likely not have the same support if not for Martinez’s election in 2019.

If Martinez’s election helped Ortiz’s odds, Baines’ one should make Ortiz a shoo-in. Baines had one of the weakest resumes of any modern Hall of Famer. His 38.7 WAR is the lowest of any Hall of Famer who has debuted in the expansion era. Baines cannot stack up to Ortiz in any category, whether it be accolades like All-Star appearances (10-6), rate stats like OPS+ (141 to 121), or cumulative stats like home runs (555 to 383). By any measure, Ortiz was a far superior player.

There are two big knocks that voters use when dismissing Ortiz’s candidacy. The first is his lack of innings in the field. While there have been other players elected to the Hall of Fame who have spent substantial time at DH, none spent nearly as much time as Ortiz, who took nearly 87% of his plate appearances at the position. This lack of defensive value leaves Ortiz’s career JAWS at just 45.3, nearly nine points below the Hall of Fame first base standard.

The second knock on Ortiz’s candidacy is his appearance in the 2003 Mitchell Report. It was revealed in 2009 that Ortiz was one of more than 100 players that tested positive for a now-banned substance during the league’s 2003 anonymous tests. Yet Oritz is already polling higher than steroid users Clemens and Ramirez.

His defenders can point to the fact that he did not fail a steroid test in the thirteen years of his career when MLB conducted tests. Ortiz was further vindicated by commissioner Rober Manfred casting doubt on the results of the 2003 tests.  “Even if your name was on the list, it was entirely possible that you were not positive,” said Manfred in 2016.

With Ortiz polling at over 83%, it is clear that most voters are willing to focus more on Ortiz’s elite hitting ability and incredible October resume (.289/.404/.542, 17 HR, 61 RBI) than his nonexistent defense and steroid allegations. Odds are that he will receive the necessary 75% this year, and even if he doesn’t get elected in 2022, Ortiz’s time will come sooner than later.

Prediction: 76%

My 2022 Hall of Fame ballot

1. Barry Bonds- He is the greatest baseball player since Willie Mays.  Though its clear performance-enhancing drugs played some role in his success, he is unquestionably a Hall of Famer before he started cheating, and there was no rule outlawing steroid use at the time.
2. Roger Clemens- The hitting version of Bonds, Clemens is the only pitcher of all time to be in the top 3 in both WAR and strikeouts. He’s a Hall of Famer.
3. Scott Rolen- Rolen’s career WAR of 70.1 is 11th all-time among third basemen, behind 10 Hall of Famers and Adrian Beltre. His eight gold gloves are more than any third baseman not named Brooks Robinson, Mike Schmidt, or Nolan Arenado. After getting 52.9% of the vote last year, he is likely to get elected soon.
4. David Ortiz- The greatest clutch hitter of his generation, there are few players who had a bigger impact on the game than Big Papi. His 541 home runs are 17th all-time while his 1768 RBIs are 23rd. No matter what position they play, a hitter like that should be in Cooperstown.
5. Andruw Jones- Most of the criticism with Jones’ candidacy centers around his combined 2.7 WAR after the age of 30. If you hit 434 home runs and win 10 straight gold gloves, however, I don’t really care how long your career was.
6. Billy Wagner- Similar to Jones, I don’t penalize Wagner too much for a short career. On an inning-by-inning basis, he was the most dominant pitcher in the history of baseball.
7. Gary Sheffield- One of the most feared hitters of his time, Sheffield batted over .300 nine times and hit over 30 home eight times. His 140 OPS+ is higher than Hall of Famers Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey Jr., and George Brett. Although there is no denying he was a terrible defender, his 60.5 WAR is higher than any non-Hall of Fame right fielder other than Reggie Smith, Dwight Evans, and the ineligible Joe Jackson.
8. Todd Helton- The election of fellow Rockie Larry Walker puts the Coors Field argument to bed and makes Helton’s election almost inevitable. His .316 average is higher than noted batsman Johnny Mize (.312), Ichiro Suzuki (.311), and George Brett (.305). A well-rounded player, he won three Gold Gloves and his 54.2 JAW is exactly at the Hall of Fame standard.
9. Jeff Kent: A remarkably consistent player, Kent hit over 20 home runs in nine straight years and batted over .280 in eleven straight. He also had a strong peak, finishing in the top 10 in MVP voting in four out of five seasons. His 377 home runs are more than any other second baseman in history, and his 123 OPS+ is higher than Hall of Famers Ernie Banks, Andre Dawson, and Derek Jeter.