Red Sox pitcher James Paxton
The Red Sox got creative when they signed free agent pitcher James Paxton knowing he would miss the majority of this season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Paxton will be paid $6 million this season, most of which will be spent rehabbing. The contract contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. After the 2022 season, the Red Sox can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13 million apiece for the following two seasons. They can’t pick up the 2023 option while waiting to see if they want him for the extra year. They need to decide after this upcoming season whether or not they want to lock him in for two more years. If the club declines the option, Paxton has a $4 million player option he could exercise for 2023.
The lockout prohibits the Red Sox from having any contact with their players, preventing them from tracking Paxton’s recovery. While contact might be relatively minimal at this point in the offseason, it will be a more pressing concern if we get to March and the team still can’t check on his progress. Paxton also won’t have the benefit of using the team’s resources, trainers and medical staff as he works his way back from injury.
Paxton might be just fine working out on his own. Perhaps there’s no reason to be concerned about the lefty getting off track with his rehab but the Red Sox can’t know that if they can’t connect with him during the lockout.
The timeline for Paxton’s season debut remains murky but the expectation is he won’t be ready before August. He wasn’t going to step on the mound during training camp anyway. However, a delayed start to the season potentially delays when he can begin his rehab assignment in the minors. Paxton will need at least a handful of starts to build up his arm strength before he can join the team in Boston. If that schedule is delayed, it leaves Paxton with less time to perform at the major league level.
The Red Sox need to see how Paxton looks against big league hitters at some point this season in order to assess whether or not to pick up those team options. How do they decide if Paxton is limited to only a few September starts – or worse, if he doesn’t pitch in the majors at all in 2022? It would take a leap of faith to commit that salary for two more years without seeing how he’s recovered from surgery.
Paxton could be a tremendous bargain if he returns to form. It’s worth paying a modest amount for a mostly lost season if it allows the Red Sox to lock in a talented starting pitcher for two more years at a discount. If the Red Sox decide that they simply haven’t seen enough progress to warrant picking up the options, they will essentially have flushed $6 million down the drain while paying a pitcher to rehab.