3 Red Sox who would be negatively affected by a delayed 2022 season
Red Sox who could be affected if the lockout delays the 2022 season
We should be counting down the days until the Boston Red Sox report to Fort Myers but the timeline has been blurred by the current work stoppage. We’re over a month into Major League Baseball’s lockout and the sides haven’t shown any substantial progress in striking a new deal, according to a report from ESPN’s Jeff Passan.
The report paints a pessimistic picture of the state of these negotiations. Both sides appear to be more concerned with winning the battle rather than finding a solution. Negotiations are about give and take. Ask for something you want while making concessions to the other side as you inch closer to an agreement. MLB and the Players’ Union have been wasting time shouting their demands while ignoring what the other side has to say.
While Passan outlines a path back to baseball, this stalemate won’t be resolved overnight. Spring Training should be right around the corner but the longer the lockout lingers, the chances increase for a delay in when players can report to camp. At this point, we can’t rule out Opening Day being pushed back. The worst case scenario of games being cancelled, resulting in another shortened season, remains an unfortunate possibility.
Any alteration to the schedule would be a frustrating outcome for everyone involved, especially the fans who are caught in the crossfire of this feud. Some would be affected more than others. There are a few Red Sox players who could potentially have their seasons derailed by a delayed start to camp or a shortened season.
Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran
Jarren Duran turned some heads with a blistering performance during spring training last year. We had heard whispers of his emerging power when he was at the team’s alternate site in Pawtucket in 2020 but the cancelled minor league season prevented us from getting a proper glimpse of his improvement until last spring.
An impressive camp led to a strong start to his season in Triple-A Worcester leading up to his major league debut in July. Unfortunately, his first taste of the big leagues proved to be a challenge.
Duran hit a meager .215 with a .578 OPS in 33 games with the Red Sox last season. He showed flashes of power with three doubles, two triples and a pair of homers but his .336 SLG was very underwhelming. His blazing speed is one of his calling cards but he stole only two bases in three attempts.
A demotion back to the minors helped Duran find his swing again. He ended the year hitting .258 with an .873 OPS, 16 home runs and 16 steals in 60 games at the Triple-A level.
The Red Sox have shaken up their outfield this offseason, creating a potential opening for Duran. Granted, they might not be done shopping in free agency or exploring the trade market to add an outfielder once the lockout is lifted. As it stands, Duran’s upside at the plate exceeds what we can expect from the returning Jackie Bradley Jr.
Duran could potentially push the veteran center fielder into a reserve role as a defensive replacement by earning a spot on the Opening Day roster this spring. If training camp is cut short as teams rush to prepare for the season to begin on time, the focus will shift toward giving playing time to those locked into roster spots. Players like Duran hoping to win a position battle will have fewer opportunities to shine in that scenario.
If Duran doesn’t break camp with the major league team, he’ll still have a chance to get called up mid-season if he performs well in Worcester. A shortened season would leave him with a shorter window to prove himself.
The longer he has to wait to spend meaningful time on the major league roster, the longer it takes for him to reach arbitration eligibility and free agency. The 25-year-old should be ready to graduate from prospect status this year but fewer opportunities in a truncated training camp or a shorter season could be a setback that prevents him from completing his rookie season.
Red Sox pitcher James Paxton
The Red Sox got creative when they signed free agent pitcher James Paxton knowing he would miss the majority of this season while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Paxton will be paid $6 million this season, most of which will be spent rehabbing. The contract contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. After the 2022 season, the Red Sox can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13 million apiece for the following two seasons. They can’t pick up the 2023 option while waiting to see if they want him for the extra year. They need to decide after this upcoming season whether or not they want to lock him in for two more years. If the club declines the option, Paxton has a $4 million player option he could exercise for 2023.
The lockout prohibits the Red Sox from having any contact with their players, preventing them from tracking Paxton’s recovery. While contact might be relatively minimal at this point in the offseason, it will be a more pressing concern if we get to March and the team still can’t check on his progress. Paxton also won’t have the benefit of using the team’s resources, trainers and medical staff as he works his way back from injury.
Paxton might be just fine working out on his own. Perhaps there’s no reason to be concerned about the lefty getting off track with his rehab but the Red Sox can’t know that if they can’t connect with him during the lockout.
The timeline for Paxton’s season debut remains murky but the expectation is he won’t be ready before August. He wasn’t going to step on the mound during training camp anyway. However, a delayed start to the season potentially delays when he can begin his rehab assignment in the minors. Paxton will need at least a handful of starts to build up his arm strength before he can join the team in Boston. If that schedule is delayed, it leaves Paxton with less time to perform at the major league level.
The Red Sox need to see how Paxton looks against big league hitters at some point this season in order to assess whether or not to pick up those team options. How do they decide if Paxton is limited to only a few September starts – or worse, if he doesn’t pitch in the majors at all in 2022? It would take a leap of faith to commit that salary for two more years without seeing how he’s recovered from surgery.
Paxton could be a tremendous bargain if he returns to form. It’s worth paying a modest amount for a mostly lost season if it allows the Red Sox to lock in a talented starting pitcher for two more years at a discount. If the Red Sox decide that they simply haven’t seen enough progress to warrant picking up the options, they will essentially have flushed $6 million down the drain while paying a pitcher to rehab.
Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez
Baseball players are creatures of habit. Disrupting those habits risks negative consequences. Few hitters struggled more from having their routines altered from the pandemic-delayed 2020 season than J.D. Martinez.
We were only a few weeks into training camp when the COVID-19 outbreak brought baseball to a screeching halt. We waited months before players could gather again for a rushed camp to prepare for a shortened season. Those are less than ideal conditions that many players struggled with.
Martinez had a miserable year, hitting .213 with a .680 OPS in 54 games. Counting stats were obviously reduced in a shortened season but his seven home runs and 27 RBI put him on pace for his lowest marks since before he became a full-time player with the Detroit Tigers in 2014.
In fairness, the chaos of the shortened season wasn’t the only reason for his struggles. MLB implemented temporary rules that prohibited players from watching video of their at-bats during games, a habit Martinez has relied on heavily to make adjustments. He was very vocal about how that change drastically hindered his approach. Access to video was restored this year and Martinez predictably bounced back with a strong season.
The interruption to training camp, uncertainty about when the season would begin and a shortened schedule created a mess that must have been a factor in his downfall though, as it was for many players. It’s not a scenario that Martinez would be eager to face again.
Especially this year with Martinez entering the final season of his contract. An opt-out provision in his contract gave him the opportunity to test free agency after the 2020 season but he obviously wasn’t going to do that in the wake of that dismal campaign. Despite coming back strong in 2021, Martinez did not opt-out when given another chance after last season. That was his last option year. He can’t opt-in for 2023 so barring an unlikely extension, Martinez will hit free agency next winter at the age of 35.
The possible introduction of the universal DH could expand his market but another down year anywhere near his disastrous 2020 season would be crippling to his value. Martinez will be looking for a big year so he can cash in with one last payday and a full season that allows him to follow his normal routine would go a long way toward helping him achieve that goal.
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