5 Black Friday deals the Red Sox should consider in free agency
The Boston Red Sox can find some bargains in free agency
The Boston Red Sox will be tied to many of the top free agents in the rumor mill but they won’t be able to afford all of them. They may splurge on a big name this winter but filling out the roster will require finding talent at a more affordable cost. Since it’s Black Friday, we’ll follow the annual tradition of shopping for bargains by exploring some free agents who could be undervalued on the market.
Chaim Bloom has proven himself as a master of uncovering these gems. While some will accuse him of being too frugal, I counter by pointing out how the strategy has worked out for him.
The fanbase wasn’t exactly overflowing with excitement when Enrique Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe were signed to modest deals but they both were pivotal to the Red Sox securing a Wild Card spot and making a surprising run to the ALCS. Their contracts are now viewed as tremendous bargains whereas some of the flashier names fans were hoping for last winter range from disappointing (George Springer) to disastrous (Marcell Ozuna).
Bargain hunting will inevitably lead to a fair share of misfires but striking out on these low-cost deals doesn’t hurt nearly as much as whiffing on an expensive contract. The Red Sox have the financial resources to spend up for a star player but they’ll need to mix in some values as well.
Red Sox starting pitching target Alex Cobb
A star-studded pitching market headlined by Max Scherzer and Robbie Ray will grab most of the attention but the Red Sox don’t necessarily need to pay for an ace. They have their own Cy Young candidate in Nathan Eovaldi plus Chris Sale should return to form in his first full season following surgery. What they need is depth and an inexpensive back of the rotation arm is a sufficient way to bolster their stable of starters.
Alex Cobb was on his way to developing into an ace early in his career with the Tampa Bay Rays but he was derailed by Tommy John surgery that wiped out his 2015 season. He struggled in a brief five-game sample when he returned the following season but bounced back with a solid 2017, going 12-10 with a 3.66 ERA.
Cobb signed with the Baltimore Orioles in 2018 on a deal that turned into an absolute disaster. He was 7-22 with a 5.10 ERA in three seasons in Baltimore.
The O’s traded him to the Los Angeles Angels where he revitalized his career this year, going 8-3 with a 3.76 ERA and a career-high 9.5 K/9. Maybe the problem was pitching for a woeful Orioles staff since he’s performed well everywhere else in his career.
Cobb is primarily a groundball pitcher, ranking 11th in the majors with a 53.3 GB% this season. Until this year, Cobb hadn’t recorded a strikeout rate higher than 6.5 K/9 since before he had Tommy John surgery. If he can maintain this newfound rate of striking out over a batter per inning, Cobb may have more untapped potential to uncover.
MLB Trade Rumors projects Cobb to receive a two-year, $16 million deal. There’s risk in signing a pitcher who made fewer than 20 starts in four of his last six seasons but he would be a strong value if he stays healthy while replicating this year’s results.
Red Sox infield target Eduardo Escobar
Eduardo Escobar made his first All-Star appearance this year, hitting .253 with a .786 OPS, 28 home runs and 90 RBI.
He finished the season strong with a .268/.342/.458 slash line following a deadline deal that shipped him to the Milwaukee Brewers. Acquiring Escobar helped the Brewers clinch the NL Central. While they lost to the Atlanta Braves in the NLDS, Escobar wasn’t the problem. He was 3-for-10 (.300) with a double in the four-game series.
Escobar had a miserable 2020, as many players did while adjusting to the chaos of the shortened season (just ask J.D. Martinez). He hit a meager .213 with a .605 OPS but that was a clear outlier. Escobar hit .269 with a .831 OPS, 35 home runs and a league-leading 10 triples in 2019. He might not reach that level again but a solid 2021 season shows last year was a fluke.
The switch-hitter fares better against lefties but handles right-handed pitching well enough to avoid being relegated to a platoon role. He provides adequate defense at third base, shortstop and second base. The Red Sox covet versatility but his ability to cover second is most appealing since it allows Kike Hernandez to stick in center field.
Escobar will turn 33 before next season so he might be heading for the downside of his career but that isn’t too concerning on a short-term deal. Some of the top prospects in the Red Sox system are middle infielders so they might not want to lock themselves into a long-term deal for the top free agents at those positions. Escobar is a cheaper solution who can provide a bridge to those prospects for a couple of seasons. He’s projected for a two-year, $20 million deal. That’s a fair price based on his production this year and a steal if he returns to his 2019 level.
Red Sox outfield target Mark Canha
Mark Canha might go a bit overlooked due to his meager .231 batting average but he’s always had a knack for getting on base. His .358 OBP ranked 14th in the American League this season.
The batting average might not improve much if he continues to strike out over 20 percent of the time but he offsets that concern by drawing walks at a high rate. His 12.3 BB% tied for 11th in the league.
Kike thrived when he was moved to the top of the Red Sox order this year but he doesn’t really fit the profile of a leadoff hitter due to his relatively low OBP. Canha would be a preferable choice for that role, allowing Hernandez to move down in the order to a spot where his power can drive in more runs.
Canha has modest power with 17 home runs this year. He smacked a career-high 26 homers in 2019, which shows there’s more upside in his swing. Canha matched his career-high with 22 doubles this season and we would expect the right-handed pull hitter to improve upon that total if he moves to Fenway Park to take aim at the Green Monster.
He’s not a strong defensive player but Canha is capable of playing all three outfield spots. The Red Sox are currently thin on viable outfielders unless Jarren Duran makes another leap in his development. Canha could provide depth as a potential fourth outfielder in the short-term. His presence could also allow Hernandez to stick at second base to boost a Red Sox infield defense that desperately needs an upgrade.
Canha will turn 33 before next season so he’ll probably settle for a short-term contract. He’s projected for a two-year, $24 million deal. He’s not quite a bargain at that price if he’s only the team’s fourth outfielder but if he cements and everyday role for himself at the top of the lineup, Canha should be well worth that salary.
Red Sox starting pitching target Alex Wood
Alex Wood has been limited by various injuries throughout his career but he’s typically pitched well when he’s able to take the mound.
The lefty was an All-Star in 2017 with the Dodgers when he went 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA and finished ninth on the NL Cy Young ballot. He was solid throughout his tenure in Los Angeles, going 31-21 with a 3.54 ERA and 8.4 K/9 over parts of five seasons.
A back injury limited Wood to seven starts in a forgettable one-year stint with the Cincinnati Reds. He returned to the Dodgers last year but hit the injured list with shoulder inflammation after only two starts and he finished the season in the bullpen.
Wood bounced back with a solid 26 starts for the San Francisco Giants this year, going 10-4 with a 3.83 ERA. His 26.0 K% ranked 30th in the majors among pitchers with 130+ innings. A strong strikeout rate is appealing to a Red Sox team with defensive issues in the infield.
Facing his old team in the NLDS, Wood held the Dodgers scoreless over 4 2/3 innings. Wood has been a trustworthy arm on the postseason stage with a 3.11 ERA in 21 career playoff games (three starts).
Wood will be 31 years old next season and he’s projected for a three-year, $30 million deal. That investment is a bit of a risk considering his injury history but the concern would be offset if Boston can convince him to make the final year a club option that vests if he reaches an innings target or if it’s an incentive-laden deal. Whether or not that’s feasible will depend on how much interest he draws on the market.
Red Sox relief pitcher target Mark Melancon
Mark Melancon‘s brief tenure in Boston back in 2012 won’t make Red Sox fans eager for a reunion but the four-time All-Star has been one of the game’s more reliable relievers since then.
Melancon led the majors with 39 saves while posting a 2.23 ERA for the San Diego Padres this year. It’s the second time in his career that he’s led the league in saves and he has tallied 244 in his career.
A groundball-heavy approach led to Melancon ranking 14th among major league relievers with a 56.4 GB% (minimum 50 innings). He doesn’t miss a lot of bats but he thrives by generating weak contact with a barrel rate and average exit velocity both in the 76th percentile or better.
He doesn’t fit the profile of a modern closer since he’s not an overpowering strikeout pitcher but Melancon is a crafty veteran with a strong track record of being able to handle the ninth inning. The Red Sox could use an upgrade at the back of the bullpen in the wake of Matt Barnes’ brutal second-half slump. Even if they intend to give Barnes a shot at reclaiming the closer role, Melancon would provide them with a valuable insurance policy.
Despite being an All-Star closer, Melancon isn’t expected to be paid like one with a projection of a two-year, $14 million deal. The lack of strikeouts might make teams hesitant to hand him a more lucrative contract and age could also be a factor for a pitcher who turns 37 before next season. That price would be a huge bargain if he continues to excel in the closer role and the cost is still reasonable if he settles into a setup role. The Red Sox aren’t likely to break the bank on a relief pitcher after giving Barnes an extension earlier this year but Melancon offers a cost-effective solution with plenty of upside.
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