Red Sox: 5 free agent pitchers who can replace Eduardo Rodriguez
The Boston Red Sox have a void to fill in their starting rotation
Eduardo Rodriguez signed a free agent deal with the Detroit Tigers this week, leaving a hole in the middle of the Boston Red Sox rotation.
Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta are currently locked into their starting roles. Boston could fill out the rotation internally with Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. While the upside of both young pitchers is appealing, the versatile role they provided from the bullpen last season was invaluable. The Red Sox should keep one of them in that role where they have the flexibility to handle multiple innings or record key outs late in games while still maintaining the ability to spot start when necessary.
Every team needs more than five starters to get through the grind of the regular season, making it vital that they stockpile depth. Houck and Whitlock should both get opportunities to start next season regardless of the role they are assigned on Opening Day. The Red Sox still need to add at least one starting pitcher to replace Rodriguez.
While the trade market is always an option to explore, there are several free agent starters who should be on Boston’s radar.
Max Scherzer will be the most coveted pitcher in free agency. While the 37-year-old won’t get the biggest contract this winter, a short-term deal would still be expensive on an average annual basis. The three-time Cy Young award winner may very well be worth the price but considering the bounty surrendered to acquire him at the trade deadline, it’s hard to imagine the Los Angeles Dodgers allowing anyone to outbid them.
There are plenty of back of the rotation arms available. We know Chaim Bloom has a habit of bargain hunting but targeting a starter who is viewed a significant downgrade from Rodriguez would be an underwhelming reaction to losing their No. 3 starter. We’re looking at realistic options the Red Sox should target who can join Sale and Eovaldi to assemble a formidable trio at the top of the rotation.
Red Sox could gamble on upside of Carlos Rodon
Carlos Rodon will be an interesting case this offseason. He brings significant upside on the heels of his first All-Star campaign in which he posted a 2.37 ERA and 12.6 K/9. The lefty also carries some red flags that will make many teams hesitant to sign him.
The former No. 3 overall pick has never made more than 28 starts in a season due to a series of injuries. A biceps injury limited him to 12 starts in 2017 and he was shut down after 20 starts the following year after undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery. Rodon missed most of the next two seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Rodon was brilliant through his first 16 starts this season, improving to 8-3 with a 2.14 ERA after shutting out the Houston Astros over seven innings on July 18.
He seemed to wear down after that, failing to log more than five innings in any of his final eight starts. He remained productive with a 3.00 ERA while striking out 45 batters in his final 36 innings but there were some concerns. His fastball velocity declined from 96 mph to an average of about 94 mph over his final eight starts, dipping as low as 91 mph in his final regular season appearance, per FanGraphs. He allowed six home runs in his final eight starts after allowing only seven through his first 16 starts.
The second-half swoon was likely the result of fatigue. Rondon finished the regular season with 132 2/3 innings, his highest innings total since 2016. That’s hardly surprising considering how much time he’s missed in recent years. He won’t be a 200 inning workhorse (who is these days?) but Rodon should take another step forward to handling a reasonable starter’s workload next season. Building rotation depth around him and the support of a deep bullpen would help keep Rodon fresh for the long haul. He just needs to stay healthy.
The White Sox surprisingly didn’t extend a qualifying offer to Rodon. It’s unclear if the decision was motivated by their payroll or if they are concerned about his health. Either way, he appears to be on his way out of Chicago. Any team looking to sign him will need to have a high tolerance for injury risk but he’s one of the most talented pitchers on the market who isn’t tied to a qualifying offer. A one-year deal is a worthwhile gamble without a draft pick penalty.
Red Sox could bring Marcus Stroman back to the AL East
Marcus Stroman opted-out of the 2020 season due to COVID-19 concerns, then bet on himself by accepting the qualifying offer from the Mets. That decision is about to pay off as he hits free agency without the burden of draft penalties limiting his market.
Stroman didn’t miss a beat when he returned this year, producing a 3.02 ERA and 1.145 WHIP in 33 starts.
He excels by limiting walks (2.2 BB/9) and home runs (0.9 HR/9) but Stroman’s strikeout rate has always underwhelmed. His 21.6 K% and 11.6% swinging-strike rate were both career-highs yet he remains a below-average strikeout pitcher.
Stroman is a groundball pitcher, ranking eighth among qualified starters with a 50.8 GB% this season. That’s a bit of a concern for a Red Sox team with a weak defensive infield. Boston would need to upgrade defensively for Stroman to be a viable target. Adding one of the elite shortstops on the free agent market and moving Xander Bogaerts to second base would be one way to achieve that goal.
The usual concerns about pitchers transitioning from the National League to face the deeper lineups of the American League where the designated hitter is utilized don’t apply to Stroman. He’s battled tested in the AL East after spending the first six years of his career with the Toronto Blue Jays. He was an All-Star in 2019 before the Jays shipped him to the Mets at the deadline and he earned some Cy Young votes along with a Gold Glove in 2017.
MLB Trade Rumors predicts a five-year, $110 million deal for Stroman. That’s a fair price for a 30-year-old who has been fairly durable in his career. He’s not an ace but Stroman would make a strong No. 3 starter for the Red Sox. They were willing to pay Rodriguez $18.4 million if he accepted his qualifying offer so spending $22 million for a comparable pitcher isn’t unreasonable.
Kevin Gausman’s resurgence puts him on the Red Sox radar
Speaking of former AL East pitchers who bet on themselves by accepting a qualifying offer last winter, Kevin Gausman is ready to cash in on his All-Star campaign.
Gausman was selected by the Orioles with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 draft put never lived up to that pedigree during six solid yet unspectacular seasons in Baltimore. He finished 2018 strong following a midseason trade to Atlanta but the Braves waived him midway through the 2019 season after he produced a 6.19 ERA through 16 starts. He was scooped up by the Cincinnati Reds and spent most of the remaining season in their bullpen.
Moving to San Francisco revitalized his career. Their pitcher-friendly park certainly helped but the Giants unlocked his potential by urging him to lean more on his split-finger fastball while relying less on other ineffective secondary pitches. Gausman held opposing hitters to a .133 batting average with his splitter, which he threw 35.3% of the time this season, per Baseball Savant. He became primarily a four-seam fastball/splitter pitcher. The slider that had been pounded by opposing hitters earlier in his career was more effective (.250 BAA) when used sparingly.
Gausman went 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA, 3.00 FIP, 10.5 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9. His career-best 145 ERA+, which is adjusted for the player’s ballpark, proves his success wasn’t merely a product of pitching half his games in Oracle Park. Gausman actually fared better on the road (2.33 ERA) than he did at home (3.44 ERA).
The six-year, $138 million deal predicted by MLB Trade Rumors is the highest in terms of total dollars for any free agent pitcher on their list. That’s due to several of the top pitchers expecting shorter deals due to age or injury concerns. Six years is fair for a 30-year-old and the $23 million average annual value isn’t outrageous as long as teams are confident that their coaching staff can replicate what the Giants did to turn his career around.
Red Sox could steal for a division rival
Robbie Ray is the front-runner for the Cy Young award after leading the league with a 2.84 ERA, 1.045 WHIP, 248 strikeouts and 193 1/3 innings.
Ray has always been an elite strikeout artist, owning an 11.2 K/9 for his career. His 11.5 K/9 this year was certainly no fluke and he’s shown the upside for more. His walk rate might be an outlier though. Ray improved his command to reduce his staggering 7.8 BB/9 last year to a stellar 2.4 BB/9 this season. His career rate still stands at a troubling 3.9 BB/9 so the drastic decline in walks was certainly a surprise.
As dominant as he could be at times, Ray has a habit of giving up the long ball. His 1.54 HR/9 was tied for the fourth-highest and his 90.4 average exit velocity was the worst among qualified starters. It’s shocking that he managed to win an ERA title with those numbers. If Ray’s control regresses toward his career walk rate, many of the solo shots he coughed up will turn into crooked numbers in a hurry.
Reworking his approach by adjusting his mechanics and bringing a more aggressive mentality to the mound can be credited for the improvement in walk rate. Ray is almost exclusively a fastball/slider pitcher now. He can generate swings-and-misses with his curve but struggles to command it in the strike zone so cutting back on utilizing it has helped limit walks. A case can be made that increasing the usage of his fastball to 59.4% and attacking the strike zone explains the high home run rate and exit velocity. That’s a fair trade off for reducing walks, which can lead to multiple runs and rapidly increasing pitch counts.
A team willing to sign Ray is banking on him sustaining this performance. Is that a fools errand? No more so than assuming Gausman can do it while switching leagues. Ray’s price tag might be steeper, especially if he takes home the Cy Young hardware, but the commitment might be shorter. MLBTR predicts a five-year, $130 million deal.
The Blue Jays extended a qualifying offer to Ray. While the Red Sox should be more willing to pay that penalty for a top free agent than they have been in recent years, it’s still a cost that has to be factored in when debating between Ray and other options on the list.
Red Sox could add a Hall of Fame pitcher
Justin Verlander is the ultimate high-risk, high-reward pitcher in this free agent market. The last time we saw Verlander on the mound for a full season was when he won his second career Cy Young award by going 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA and league-leading 7.13 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Unfortunately, that was in 2019. Verlander only made one start during the shortened 2020 season and underwent Tommy John surgery in October of that year. He’ll be about 17 months removed from surgery when spring training rolls around so he should be able to begin a relatively normal routine to prepare for the season on time. It’s a different situation than the one Chris Sale faced when he was only a year removed from his surgery in the spring and didn’t debut until August. The Red Sox were overly cautious with Sale but even if they followed the same path with Verlander, the former MVP would still be available for most of the season.
Verlander held a showcase for interested suitors last week that reportedly went very well. His fastball velocity was in the mid- to upper-90s and he appeared sharp with all of his pitches.
There’s obvious concern for any pitcher returning from Tommy John surgery, let alone one who will be 39 years old next season. If you’re going to place that bet on any pitcher, make it a future Hall of Famer who was still pitching at an elite level deep into his 30s.
The other drawback to signing Verlander is that he received a qualifying offer from the Astros. Even if Boston is willing to pay the penalty, surrendering a draft pick to sign a player to a one-year deal is a horrible waste of an asset. The Angels were willing to do so when they signed Noah Syndergaard but following in the footsteps of the Angels is rarely a wise team building strategy. That should take the one-year “prove it” deal off the table for the Red Sox. Considering his age, how many years does Verlander have left in the tank? How many effective years would it take to make a lucrative multi-year contract worth surrendering the draft pick?
A healthy Verlander is arguably the best pitcher available in this market. He won’t be cheap and there’s plenty of downside but if the right-hander can return to form, he’s capable of being the difference-maker the Red Sox need to put them over the top.
Next. Predicting the 2030 Opening Day roster. dark