Red Sox: 3 reasons why J.D. Martinez didn’t opt-out to test free agency
J.D. Martinez is staying with the Red Sox for another season
When J.D. Martinez signed with the Boston Red Sox prior to the 2018 season, the common perception was that he wasn’t going to stick around for all five years. At least not under the same $110 million contract. The terms of the deal included language to protect the team from concerns of a previous Lisfranc injury while providing Martinez with the option to opt-out of any of the final three years of the contract.
Martinez proved he was healthy through two All-Star campaigns to begin his tenure in Boston but didn’t find enough incentive to trigger the first opt-out with three more years potentially locked in and his salary still a year away from declining. Martinez earned $23.75 million in each of the first three years but his salary would dip to $19.35 for the final two seasons if he didn’t opt-out.
A brutal slump in 2020 wiped away any chance of Martinez opting out when given the opportunity for a second time. He bounced back with a strong 2021 season, hitting .286 with a .867 OPS, 28 home runs and a league-leading 42 doubles.
His productive season set the 34-year-old up to cash in on a multi-year deal. Even if he was unlikely to find offers that would pay north of $19 million next season, he could secure more guaranteed money with a new contract.
Many expected the veteran designated hitter to hit the market this winter but when the deadline came for him to exercise his final opt-out opportunity, Martinez declined.
JD Martinez declines to exercise optout and remains a Red Sox.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) November 7, 2021
It’s hardly unusual for players to bet on themselves but considering his age and the fact that he was already coming off an All-Star season, it’s hard to imagine Martinez expecting his value to go up from here. So why is he staying?
Opt-in with the Red Sox avoids labor uncertainty
Players are typically eager to reach free agency but this is a difficult year to test the market with the collective bargaining agreement expiring next month. The possibility of a lockout threatens to freeze the market until a new deal is put in place. That could leave players scrambling to find deals in a frenzy that begins once the lockout is lifted. A veteran who is limited to being a DH might get left out in the cold in that frantic climate.
We expect a new CBA to be put in place eventually but it’s unclear what the new terms will be. Steeper penalties for teams exceeding the luxury tax could make big budget teams more reluctant to spend. On the other hand, the implementation of a salary floor could force small-market teams to spend, leaving more money available for free agents to grab.
The new CBA might include the universal DH, which would open a path for Martinez to receive offers from a longer list of suitors. If Martinez opted-out under the assumption that National League teams would show interest in him, the plan could backfire if the universal DH doesn’t get added in the new deal.
There was the potential for Martinez to make more money under a new CBA but he had to make his decision before the current deal expires. Opting out would have carried some risk due to the uncertainty surrounding the terms of the CBA so Martinez played it safe by finishing out the remainder of his current deal.
Red Sox would have extended a qualifying offer
The Arizona Diamondbacks weren’t able to extend a qualifying offer when Martinez hit free agency after the 2017 season since they acquired him in a deadline deal. That means he’s still eligible to get a qualifying offer from the Red Sox the next time he reaches free agency.
If Martinez declined the qualifying offer, another club would be forced to forfeit a draft pick in order to sign him. That penalty needs to weigh into the decision for those interested teams, which could limit the player’s market. Many players who decline the offer are superstars who are worth giving up a draft pick to acquire. For a designated hitter entering his mid-30s, it’s a more difficult decision, even when the bat remains as productive as Martinez’s.
It’s possible that Martinez would have accepted the qualifying offer if he had opted out. It would have meant a pay cut from the $19.35 million on his player option to the $18.4 million qualifying offer. The tradeoff of a short-term reduction in salary is that it would have allowed Martinez to enter free agency next year without being encumbered by a qualifying offer, since teams can only pull that card on a player once.
By opting in, Martinez gets his full $19.35 million for the 2022 season and kicks the decision down the road for another year. It’s possible that the new CBA will eliminate qualifying offers or drastically alter the terms of those offers in a player-friendly way. He avoids the headaches of being a free agent attached to a qualifying offer in an uncertain labor market and potentially avoids it completely if the new CBA turns out favorably to players in his situation.
Martinez is comfortable playing for the Red Sox
While plenty of teams with money to burn would have interest in adding his veteran presence to their young core, Martinez should be focused contending teams at this stage of his career. Why go looking for a contender in free agency when he’s already a part of one in Boston?
The Red Sox recovered from a dismal 2020 season to make a surprising run to the ALCS. With a few tweaks, this roster is capable of contending for a World Series title. Boston has also greatly improved their minor league system over the past two years, stocking the farm with impact talent that should arrive in the near future and creating a bright long-term outlook.
Boston is a far more desirable destination than it appeared to be a year ago. Martinez has formed a bond with his teammates, has a solid relationship with manager Alex Cora and has been embraced by the fan base.
Martinez has made a home for himself here and might not be eager to pack up and leave it behind for a new city. It’s uncertain how many years he would be offered on a new deal and at this stage of his career, he might not be interested in hopping around for short-term stints with other teams.
He could have rolled the dice that a more lucrative offer was out there but it’s unclear which AL contenders have a vacant spot for a DH in their lineup and money to spend. There might not be a better landing spot for him than Boston. With all the lingering questions that come with venturing into free agency, Martinez was better off with the security of a spot he finds familiar.
Next. Red Sox must avoid these expensive free agents. dark