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3 scary free agents Red Sox should avoid signing this offseason

By Sean Penney

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 03: Anthony Rizzo #48 of the New York Yankees in action against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on October 03, 2021 in New York City. New York Yankees defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 1-0. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK - OCTOBER 03: Anthony Rizzo #48 of the New York Yankees in action against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium on October 03, 2021 in New York City. New York Yankees defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 1-0. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /
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HOUSTON, TEXAS – JULY 19: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros pitches during an intrasquad game as they continue with Summer Workouts at Minute Maid Park on July 19, 2020 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TEXAS – JULY 19: Justin Verlander #35 of the Houston Astros pitches during an intrasquad game as they continue with Summer Workouts at Minute Maid Park on July 19, 2020 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images) /

Red Sox shouldn’t bet on Verlander returning to form

Justin Verlander has been one of the game’s most dominant pitchers over the last decade and a half. He’s an eight-time All-Star, a Triple Crown winner and a former MVP. The last time we saw a healthy Verlander for a full season was in 2019 when he captured his second career Cy Young award.

The concern with Verlander is that we haven’t seen him healthy in almost two years. The right-hander made only one start in 2020 before undergoing Tommy John surgery that kept him sidelined through this season.

The Red Sox saw Chris Sale battle inconsistency as he struggled to regain his previous form when he returned from this surgery. The progress he made is an encouraging sign that he’ll be closer to his old self next season but his return to the mound could hardly be considered smooth sailing.

Verlander will be 39 years old next season. How many years does he have left in the tank? He might need to settle for a one-year deal, which could potentially be the last of his magnificent career.

If the Houston Astros extend a qualifying offer to him, surrendering a draft pick for only one year of Verlander isn’t worthwhile for the Red Sox.

Even on a short-term deal, Verlander won’t be cheap. It would be tempting to gamble on his upside if it were an incentive laden deal or one with a vesting option that keeps him under team control through 2023 if he has a successful return next season. If he’s healthy, Verlander isn’t likely to settle for a team-friendly deal and there should be enough interested suitors that he won’t need to.

Next. Red Sox top-30 prospect rankings. dark

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