3 scary free agents Red Sox should avoid signing this offseason
Buyer beware for the Red Sox when it comes to these free agents
Halloween is approaching but there is something scarier at this time of year than the ghouls and goblins lurking in the dark – MLB free agency. The Boston Red Sox will be active on the free-agent market as they aim to upgrade a roster on the verge of championship contention but they must be careful not to get tricked into spending on players who aren’t the treat they appear to be.
Chaim Bloom has shown a knack for finding underappreciated players. It’s not that he’s cheap, he simply recognizes value. Kike Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe weren’t splashy names when they signed bargain deals last offseason but where would the Red Sox have been without them this year?
We expect more of the same from Bloom as he tinkers with this roster. Not every move is going to pan out but his track record shows he can be trusted to get most decisions right. If he swings and misses at a few low-cost options, we can live with that.
When an expensive free-agent signing backfires, it can be crippling to an organization. The Red Sox have a history of spending on the top free agents in an effort to “win” the offseason. Remember Pablo Sandoval? Signing a big name grabs headlines that excite the fan base but it can be disastrous when they don’t work out.
This year’s crop of free agents is loaded with those big names but the bust potential for some of them is terrifying. The nightmare scenario of overpaying a player based on name value is what the Red Sox must steer clear from this offseason.
Red Sox shouldn’t sign Rizzo
Few players were tied to the Red Sox in the rumor mill more than Anthony Rizzo leading up to the trade deadline. Many fans were frustrated that Bloom failed to trade for the three-time All-Star first baseman, especially when he landed with the New York Yankees instead.
As it turns out, the Red Sox dodged a bullet by not trying to top New York’s offer to the Chicago Cubs. Rizzo’s production in pinstripes was mildly disappointing, hitting .249 with a .768 OPS, seven home runs and 21 RBI in 49 games with the Yankees.
Meanwhile, Bobby Dalbec‘s late-season surge, which saw him produce a .955 OPS after the break, proved that first base didn’t require an upgrade. Kyle Schwarber was a far better trade deadline acquisition, producing a .957 OPS in 41 games with the Red Sox. Both hitters performed significantly better than Rizzo after the deadline. Trading for Rizzo would have meant limiting Dalbec’s opportunities, not pulling the trigger on the Schwarber trade, or potentially both.
Rizzo remains a solid hitter but he’s no longer the 30+ home run, 100+ RBI threat he was during his peak years. The four-time Gold Glove award winner would be an upgrade defensively for the Red Sox but his career-worst -6 defensive runs saved shows that Rizzo’s defensive skills slipped his year.
The 32-year-old appears to be on the downswing of his career, making him a prime candidate to be overpaid based on his past achievements. With Dalbec proving he can handle big league pitching and top prospect Triston Casas on the way, the Red Sox can find a better way to allocate their resources than giving Rizzo a lucrative deal.
Red Sox should worry about Story’s splits
This year’s free-agent class is loaded at the shortstop position. You might be thinking, “Wait, the Red Sox already have a shortstop!” You would be correct, as Xander Bogaerts is among the elite at the position. That doesn’t mean they can ignore the talent available in this market. Bogaerts has the ability to opt out of his deal after next season. While he’s expected to stay in Boston, perhaps with a new extension, Bogaerts is also open to the idea of switching positions if it helps improve the roster.
If the Red Sox were going after another star shortstop, now is the time to pounce. There are plenty of appealing options hitting free agency this winter but the one I would be most cautious of is Trevor Story.
The Colorado Rockies shortstop has been excellent through his first six major league seasons, hitting .272 with an .863 OPS. The two-time All-Star is a perennial 20/20 threat with 35+ homer upside and a pair of Silver Slugger awards on his resume.
Story enters free agency on the heels of his worst season since 2017, the year before he broke out with his first All-Star campaign. He hit .251 with an .801 OPS, 24 home runs and 75 RBI. Solid production but not the type of numbers that fit his superstar reputation.
The biggest red flag is the boost that Story gets from playing his home games at Coors Field. He still hits like an elite player in the thin air of Colorado, posting a .296 average and .880 OPS at home this year. He’s essentially a replacement-level hitter on the road, where he hit .203 with a .717 OPS. Story has had massive home/road splits for his entire career so this isn’t an outlier from a down season.
Story’s career 112 OPS+, which is adjusted for park effects, ranks ninth among shortstops with at least 2,000 plate appearances since 2016. That places him above-average but not quite at the level other metrics suggest. His 102 OPS+ this year was barely above-average.
While Coors Field inflates offensive production, Rockies hitters are at a disadvantage on the road. It’s harder for pitchers to control breaking balls in Colorado where the ball doesn’t move the same way. Rockies hitters tend to feast on fastballs at home but are then unprepared when they face a wider arsenal on the road. We’ve seen Nolan Arenado and DJ LeMahieu continue to thrive after switching teams despite concerns about their home/road splits during their time in Colorado. Perhaps Story will follow that trend by remaining an elite hitter if he moves to another ballpark.
Is that a risk the Red Sox want to take when Story is coming off a down season?
The Rockies will undoubtedly extend a qualifying offer to Story, which means the Red Sox would be penalized a draft pick if they sign him. That has to be factored into the cost on top of the long-term deal he’s expected to demand.
There are some shortstops worth pursuing even if it means asking Bogaerts to switch positions earlier than he expected. Story isn’t one of them.
Red Sox shouldn’t bet on Verlander returning to form
Justin Verlander has been one of the game’s most dominant pitchers over the last decade and a half. He’s an eight-time All-Star, a Triple Crown winner and a former MVP. The last time we saw a healthy Verlander for a full season was in 2019 when he captured his second career Cy Young award.
The concern with Verlander is that we haven’t seen him healthy in almost two years. The right-hander made only one start in 2020 before undergoing Tommy John surgery that kept him sidelined through this season.
The Red Sox saw Chris Sale battle inconsistency as he struggled to regain his previous form when he returned from this surgery. The progress he made is an encouraging sign that he’ll be closer to his old self next season but his return to the mound could hardly be considered smooth sailing.
Verlander will be 39 years old next season. How many years does he have left in the tank? He might need to settle for a one-year deal, which could potentially be the last of his magnificent career.
If the Houston Astros extend a qualifying offer to him, surrendering a draft pick for only one year of Verlander isn’t worthwhile for the Red Sox.
Even on a short-term deal, Verlander won’t be cheap. It would be tempting to gamble on his upside if it were an incentive laden deal or one with a vesting option that keeps him under team control through 2023 if he has a successful return next season. If he’s healthy, Verlander isn’t likely to settle for a team-friendly deal and there should be enough interested suitors that he won’t need to.
Next. Red Sox top-30 prospect rankings. dark