Boston Red Sox top-30 prospect rankings after the 2021 season

Ranking the top prospects in the Red Sox farm system

The Boston Red Sox minor league system is as good as we’ve seen it in a long, long time. They are absolutely stacked. Not only do they have some bonafide studs at the top, but they have tons of depth.

This is the hardest ranking I’ve ever had to do. It took me far too long to finally come to a conclusion, and I still feel like I left off names that deserve some recognition. That being said, the list is 30. So obviously some players are going to get snubbed.

Let’s also keep in mind that this isn’t meant as a slight towards any of the players that didn’t make the cut. I’m incredibly high on a number of minor leaguers in the Red Sox system that didn’t make my top-30 list.

This is simply the 30 best prospects in my opinion, far from the only 30 that I think are good.

A lot of prospects won’t be mentioned, that deserve love. Joe Davis mashed, Stephen Scott broke out, Tyreque Reed showed off the muscles, and Devlin Granberg was phenomenal. Jeremy Wu-Yelland looked great, and Bradley Blalock has tons of potential. Christian Koss can do it all, Jaxx Groshans and Elih Marrero are exciting catching prospects. Victor Santos looks great, and Ryan Fitzgerald added power to an already phenomenal well-rounded game. Meanwhile, Niko Kavadas added a lot of power in the draft. I could keep going but you get the point.

Now with that out of the way, let’s discuss the rules and reasoning behind the rankings. As for the rules, I still just have the one – you can’t play in the Majors. The second someone plays a game in the Majors, I disqualify them from this list. I know they might still be prospects, but this just makes it easier. It frees up space.

A few things go into the rankings. There is production, eye-test, tools, potential, and even age can factor into it. The positions they are given are based on where they played in 2021. If someone played somewhere overwhelmingly in 2021, that’s the position they were given.

Oh, and fair warning. I’m extremely positive. I’ll gladly point out negative aspects of a game. But expect my ratings of the players tools to be much higher than you’d normally see.

Speaking of those ratings, we’re going to be using the same system as the MLB. So tools are graded from 20-80. However, when we get to overall sometimes it might not match with their tools. That’s because I’m also taking into account potential and some things will matter more (especially for pitchers, I’m not going to look at a great fastball that is thrown 55% of the time and count it the same as a secondary pitch that the pitcher barely even shows).

So with all the housekeeping out of the way, who sits atop the Red Sox prospects following the 2021 MLB season? Let’s dive into the Top-30.

No. 30: Red Sox outfield prospect Pedro Castellanos

Pedro Castellanos once again had a phenomenal year in the Red Sox minor leagues. Despite that, he tends to get overlooked quite a lot. In 2021, the right-handed hitter slashed .289/.364/.471 in 87 games (325 at-bats). He did that while officially moving to the outfield full-time (he was primarily a first baseman before this season).

Castellanos made some serious improvements too. The 23-year-old was in Double-A for the first time in his career. Despite that, he managed 14 doubles and three triples to go along with a new career-high of 13 home runs, showing that there is something there with the power potential.

He wasn’t great at driving in runs (44 RBI) but did set a new career-high with 66 runs scored. This was more due to circumstance than anything else though. If anything, it’s impressive he even had 44 RBI. Castellanos only had 67 at-bats in 2021 with runners in scoring position. He collected 25 hits, slashing .373/.458/.597 in those chances.

One of the biggest improvements was in the walks. Despite appearing in his least amount of games since 2017, Castellanos set a new career-mark with 32 walks. Not a great number but still a major improvement from his old-high of 22 (in 117 games).

The potential is definitely real for Castellanos. He has proven he can hit for contact (career-.300 hitter) and is making improvements when it comes to his eye. Meanwhile, his raw power that was talked about when he first popped up in the minors is starting to come through. There’s very little in the speed department and he isn’t a great fielder. However, Castellanos is a very good baserunner, which makes the speed a little bit less of an issue. Meanwhile, he played left field a lot better than people thought he would.

One of the biggest issues for Castellanos might be that there is no path for him. The reason they moved him off of first base is Triston Casas. There’s no reason to even really consider anyone else at that position for the future, as Casas is set to be a star. And with Bobby Dalbec playing well, that complicates things even further.

Castellanos played well in the outfield but the Red Sox have a lot of talent there as well. This might be why he doesn’t get the recognition he deserves. Castellanos is not the flashiest player, so others steal the spotlight.

That being said, he has legitimate .300-hitting potential and could turn into a 25-30 home run bat. He’ll never be a Gold Glover and the speed is minimal. But it looks like he won’t kill you in the outfield and he knows what he’s doing on the base paths. Despite his low RBI-total in 2021, he can produce runs nicely for a future Red Sox lineup.

Hit: 65
Power: 60
Run: 35
Arm: 50
Field: 50
Overall: 55

No. 29: Red Sox starting pitching prospect Thaddeus Ward

Thaddeus Ward should be in a much better spot on this list than 29. However, Tommy John surgery took away his 2021 season. Well, he threw eight innings technically, but you know what I mean.

Missing out on a full season didn’t help his case, especially as the Red Sox system filled up with even more talent. They are overflowing with prospects at the moment. Due to that, Ward took a hit.

The good news is, he already has a pretty impressive career. Ward was good in his first year in the organization in 2018, then absolutely dominated in 2019. In that season, Ward posted a 2.14 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, .198 BAA, and 157 strikeouts in 126 1/3 innings between Low-A and High-A.

This already helped him to build a reputation. With that reputation, he was seen as someone that could be rotation help within the next few years.

Obviously, losing his 2021 season did not help (especially after losing the 2020 season like the rest of the minor leagues). But overall there is still a lot to love about the 24-year-old’s game.

This is where it gets interesting. Ward’s pitching repertoire. The right-hander has a fastball that sat in the low-mid-90s and could get above 95 at times. I say “sat” because as I’ve mentioned, he’s had Tommy John surgery. Something that happens to TJ pitchers sometimes is that they actually gain velocity. This is a pitch that had good velocity, good control, and good movement. Now add some more velo and it could be absolutely dangerous.

Ward also has a cutter that is his best pitch. It sits in the high-80s, but again might gain one or two MPH. There’s a ton of late movement on the pitch, and he has good command of it. Absolutely a go-to pitch that will get him a lot of strikeouts.

Then there’s an elite wipeout slider. Strong and shape slice to it. Sits in the low-80s and he has good command over the pitch. Something that will probably have a lot of hitters looking stupid.

My favorite pitch is a changeup, but if I’m being honest that’s not Ward’s best pitch. Good late fade on it and it looks like a fastball coming out of his hand. Drops off and is thrown in the high-80s though, so it could confuse some batters. Doesn’t throw it often anymore.

Like the changeup, Ward also has a curveball that he doesn’t use much. I think given time he’ll throw both a little more, as it’s not a bad thing for a starter to have extra pitches. The curve hits the high-70s and has good vertical drop to it. Rarely used though so it’s hard to rate it much.

Ward absolutely has potential to be a rotation arm within the next year-or-two. From there, don’t be surprised if he continues to develop into a very good Major League starter for the Red Sox.

Fastball: 55
Cutter: 70
Slider: 65
Changeup: 40
Curveball: 40
Control: 55
Overall: 55

No. 28: Red Sox third base prospect Brandon Howlett

Brandon Howlett has had the unfortunate position of being a third base prospect in the Red Sox system for the last few seasons. Why is that unfortunate, you ask? Well, Rafael Devers is at the position in the Majors. And he’s still younger than some people on this list. Then there was Michael Chavis at one point, Bobby Dalbec, and Triston Casas. Chavis is gone, Dalbec and Casas have moved to first base. So then the path is a little more clear, right? Well here comes Blaze Jordan.

Through it all though, Howlett has carved out a strong start to his MiLB career and deserves some recognition for his serious potential. 2019 was his first full season (spent in Low-A), and he had moments of brilliance in it. The right-handed hitter showed some pop but not very much. That was a little worrisome as it was supposed to be a big part of his game.

However, then came 2021. In a new level (High-A), Howlett flourished. Despite having less plate-appearances by a decently healthy 51 (465 to 414), he set a lot of new career-highs. The 19 doubles didn’t set a mark, but his four triples and 17 home runs did. And there’s the power they were expecting.

Meanwhile, Howlett drove in 57 runs and scored 62 more (both new career-highs as well). He even set a new mark in all his slash line numbers, with a .253/.345/.469. Oh, and what was most impressive about all this? Howlett just turned 22 in mid-September. He’s still growing and clearly his game is catching on quickly, which could mean he’s in for a massive 2022. Could that see him shoot up the boards even more?

The bat is the main attraction. It will be interesting to see how he grows there. Howlett needs to cut back on the strikeouts but the spike in average is very promising. There’s no reason to believe he can’t keep getting that up and become a legit .280 guy. Meanwhile, the power potential was shining in 2021. 25-30 homers is definitely obtainable and he could even find himself hitting 35-plus in a season.

He doesn’t have much speed, so don’t expect him to bring anything to the table there. But he’s fast improving on defense, which is great to see. I don’t think he’ll even become a Gold Glove defender, but there’s absolutely nothing wrong with having a consistently solid glove at first base. He’ll make the right play and has a solid arm to match the glove.

Howlett’s biggest problem is the current landscape of the Red Sox. Devers isn’t going anywhere and Casas is clearly the future at first base. Howlett’s got a lot of potential but right now is still very raw. So predicting a spot for him is really tough. If he continues to build on his game though, the Red Sox might need to figure something out.

Hit: 55
Power: 65
Run: 35
Arm: 55
Field: 50
Overall: 55

No. 27: Red Sox outfield prospect Tyler Dearden

2021 was absolutely a breakout year for Tyler Dearden. The outfielder came into the year without much of an identity. He was seen as someone who had potential, but wasn’t really putting up the numbers. Due to that, his projections went down a bit. Dearden was a prospect that graded out average-at-best in nearly every category.

2021 changed a lot of that. A .261/.368/.523 slash line will certainly make people see you in a different light. Dearden did all that at the highest level he’s ever been at too, High-A. The 23-year-old did have a little bit of a strikeout problem, but is patient and drew a good amount of walks as well.

Dearden managed to set career-highs in a lot of categories, including doubles (20), home runs (24), RBI (80), and runs scored (73). There will be some that believe he over-performed in 2021, but I don’t believe that’s the case. He’s a prospect, prospects improve their game – that’s what happened. The left-handed hitter showed off legitimate power, power that he always had shown the potential for.

What was a major positives were his splits. He had a lot more power against righties (.259/.361/.573), got on base better against lefties (.269/.394/.346). The fact that Dearden slashed .308/.422/.670 with runners in scoring position is a serious highlight too.

Defensively, Dearden isn’t going to win any awards in the outfield. However, he isn’t going to hurt you either. He can make plays and will do enough to make you feel confident with him out there, which is something the Red Sox could use right now in their outfield.

If I’m being honest, it’s the same story for his arm. Dearden doesn’t have a cannon, but his arm isn’t bad. He has enough strength behind it and can hit his spots. That’s a positive. Especially considering he has played left field a lot. If he could learn how to play the Green Monster, he would be really solid out there, as his arm is more-than-good-enough for the short left field of Fenway Park.

Dearden isn’t the fastest on the field, but he isn’t exactly slow. He’ll be able to get a lot of doubles, especially if he starts going opposite field off that Green Monster. His gap power is nice, and with enough speed he could be an extra-base machine. Dearden won’t be stealing a lot of bases, but he’s a smart base-runner so that helps his case.

I don’t think Tyler Dearden is below-average at anything. Some aspects of his game aren’t phenomenal but they are solid. Meanwhile, his bat could be absolutely lethal. He could some serious steps forward in 2021. It should be fun to see where he goes from there.

A .275-type hitter who will take walks and mash 25-plus home runs, who can produce runs at a strong clip. Dearden is a stud at the plate, and the Red Sox always love some offense.

Hit: 60
Power: 65
Run: 45
Arm: 45
Field: 45
Overall: 55

No. 26: Red Sox shortstop prospect Brainer Bonaci

Brainer Bonaci is a very intriguing prospect. He already has phenomenal defensive tools. However, his game at the plate leaves some to be desired. The switch-hitter absolutely has potential offensively, but he’ll need to make some improvements.

In 2021, Bonaci slashed .245/.336/.383 in 188 at-bats between Rookie Ball and Low-A. His numbers in Low-A were not very good, but again he has the potential and he’s shown flashes.

It’s also important to remember that he is only 19 – so there is a reason he seems so raw. There were also some positives in that slash line. For example, in just 188 at-bats, Bonaci managed 16 doubles, two triples, and two home runs.

Now, the shortstop doesn’t really have much home run power. It does look like he can hit it into the gaps though. And he certainly has the speed to stretch those into doubles and triples. Maybe he can sneak some extra power into his game and go for 10-plus homers.

It was also good to see him show patience. Despite being extremely young, Bonaci limited his strikeouts to 45. That’s definitely not a terrible number although it could use some work. The big positive though was the fact that he also walked 24 times. A solid amount that shows good maturity and restraint at the plate – great for a player who isn’t going to have the most devastating bat.

Oh, and that speed? Bonaci is doing fantastic in that department. Legitimate 25-plus steal speed. He can help impact games heavily on the base paths if he gets on. This is something the Red Sox could certainly use.

Finally, there’s the defense. Bonaci is phenomenal here. Even at just 19, he has an elite arm. Great strength and has shown pinpoint accuracy too. He’s got good range and can make the flashy plays, but is also extremely trustworthy to make the routine ones without fail. Already great, if he can continue to mature this could be what gets him to the Majors.

Overall, Bonaci has a lot of work to do offensively. His speed and defense could carry him a long way though. That’s a combination that will never get old. And at just 19, he has a lot of time to grow and become a part of the Red Sox future in 4-5 years (he’d still be south of 25).

Hit: 50
Power: 40
Run: 60
Arm: 70
Field: 60
Overall: 55

No. 25: Red Sox starting pitching prospect Josh Winckowski

Josh Winckowski was part of the Red Sox return for Andrew Benintendi from the Kansas City Royals. He’s already looking like a great addition. Starting the year in Double-A, the starting pitcher put up pretty solid numbers for them. The big thing though, was the fact that he finished the year with a couple of phenomenal outings in Triple-A.

In Double-A, the right-handed pitcher posted a 4.14 ERA, .253 BAA, and 1.30 WHIP. He struck out 88 batters compared to 30 walks in 100 innings, picking up a nice 8-3 record.

However, in Triple-A, Winckowski made two starts – throwing 12 innings. In that time, he posted a 2.25 ERA, .122 BAA, and 0.67 WHIP. He struck out 13 and walked three, going 1-1.

Definitely more of a pitch-to-contact type of arm, but he can get strikeouts when needed. Due to being more of a contact pitcher though, he’ll need to work on his command. At the moment he walks a few too many. The walks aren’t bad at all, but if you aren’t striking people out it’s not a good idea to let people on-base for free.

That all being said, Winckowski absolutely has the stuff to make it all work. He has the ability to lower the walks, create weak contact, and even pick up the strikeouts. It’s all there.

The 23-year-old has a four-seam fastball that moves around 93-95 but he can reach back for a little more if he has to. However, the pitch does not have much movement. Due to that, it isn’t much of a swing-and-miss pitch. Another reason why he’s more pitch-to-contact.

Winckowski also has a sinker that has some nice side-to-side and sinking movement on it. This is low-90s and definitely pitch-to-contact. Great pitch for keeping the ball on the ground.

Next up is a slider, which is absolutely his best pitch. It sits right around 85-MPH and is pretty wipeout. This is the pitch that he has to miss bats with. There’s some really good break on it, and it can move both vertically and horizontally. Most importantly, the pitch snaps close to the plate, making it even harder to recognize.

Finally, there is a splitter that goes from the high-80s to the low-90s. Decent enough movement and dip to it. Looks like his normal fastball out of his hand, which should help to confuse hitters a little bit and make this more of a swing-and-miss pitch. This is still a work in progress, but if Winckowski can improve it – the splitter could help him rack up more strikeouts at a nice pace.

Overall, Winckowski is actually pretty close to the Majors with the Red Sox. There are still some things he needs to fix but for the most part he could be a competitive pitcher right now. If he can get the splitter going, there’s a lot to like about him. None of his pitches are bad, which gives him a nice repertoire. This will keep hitters guessing, keeping them from playing to the slider which makes it that much more dangerous.

Fastball: 55
Sinker: 55
Slider: 60
Splitter: 60
Control: 55
Overall: 55

No. 24: Red Sox relief pitching prospect Durbin Feltman

When Durbin Feltman was first drafted by the Red Sox in 2018, he was heralded as the “closer of the future” for Boston. Everyone was excited about what he could bring. The hype only intensified as he dominated in his first year with the team. In 2019 though, he hit a bit of snag. This significantly cooled off some of the hype. Then came 2020 and with the minor league year washed, it felt like Feltman was almost a forgotten man to some of the fans.

Naturally, that means he had a phenomenal year. A year that saw the 24-year-old get extremely close to the Majors.

How did he do in 2021 exactly? In 51 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, Feltman went 8-1 with five holds and two saves. The right-handed pitcher posted a 2.96 ERA, .215 BAA, and 1.06 WHIP with 62 strikeouts compared to 14 walks.

Even more impressive than that, Feltman’s numbers in Triple-A were an improvement from his Double-A numbers. He recorded a 2.59 ERA, .200 BAA, and 0.90 WHIP. In 24 1/3 innings he racked up 25 strikeouts and only walked four batters. Utter domination.

Feltman has three pitches, all good. He has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. It doesn’t have the best movement, but he has solid control of the pitch. Despite not much movement, he can miss a decent amount of bats with it thanks to solid velocity and the good command. If the movement improves this is an elite pitch.

Next is a curveball, which is his worst of the three pitches – but still solid. A low 80s pitch with nice break. Has both a cut and a dip to it. Good late movement, which helps to create more swing-and-misses. He has enough control over the pitch as well. Solid pitch that is getting better.

Finally, there’s the slider and this thing is nasty. Mid-80s with tons of movement. Just disgusting break, bite, snap, whatever you want to call it. One of those pitches that could start outside on a left-handed hitter and nearly hit him as he fails at the ball. 100% going to lead to a lot of strikeouts. Sometimes loses the pitch but overall has really good command of it. Elite potential.

Feltman lost his way a little bit in 2019. But 2021 was about as good of a bounce-back year as anyone could hope for. I was surprised he didn’t make it to the Majors this year. Clearly in the cards for him in 2022 though. Could be a vital piece of the bullpen right away. And that Red Sox closer role could still be his, sooner than you might think even.

Fastball: 60
Curveball: 50
Slider: 65
Control: 55
Overall: 55

No. 23: Red Sox starting pitching prospect Chih-Jung Liu

Chih-Jung Liu signed with the Boston Red Sox organization as an international free agent in 2019. At that time, he was a pitcher that could almost reach 100 MPH with his fastball. But also a switch-hitting shortstop who was very talented in the field.

At this point, the 22-year-old is just a starting pitcher. It’s highly unlikely he’ll be a two-way player but that tiniest of tiny chances certainly adds some intrigue.

Liu is the perfect example of why you shouldn’t look too heavily into certain stats in the minors – especially for pitchers. In 12 games for Low-A this season, the right-handed pitcher posted a 4.29 ERA, .257 BAA, and 1.35 WHIP. He struck out 54 batters compared to 19 walks in 50 1/3 innings pitched.

Now, those aren’t terrible numbers – but they don’t jump out at you either. Let’s take out his game on July 24 though, when he gave up eight runs on seven hits and a walk in 2/3 of an inning. Those numbers would drop significantly. For example, his ERA would lower all the way to 2.90.

I know you could argue that you can’t just eliminate bad games. I agree for the most part. However, look at it this way. For 11 starts, Liu was good or great. Just one where he truly imploded. You could also take out a game where he gave up five runs in three innings. Then the numbers for the other 10 games are even better. If you were told a pitcher will be phenomenal for 10 starts and bad for two, wouldn’t you take it?

It’s tough to use numbers for pitchers because there is so much that goes into it. And one or two “implosion” starts have no real factor outside of the one game. But it leaves a mark on their numbers as a whole.

Liu sits in the low-mid 90s right now with his fastball, but can get it back up a little bit. Hopefully he can get it all the way back to sitting in the mid-high 90s soon. He was unable to train during the early portions of the pandemic, so the velocity issues could have something to do with that. There’s a lot of movement there and he has pretty solid overall control of the pitch.

His slider has a lot of great movement on it. It sits in the mid-80s and can sweep horizontally with a little downward movement in it as well. This can be used to drop it in for a strike or to toss in the dirt and out of the strike zone, leaving a hitter looking stupid. That being said, Liu doesn’t have total control over the pitch. Sometimes he’ll leave it flat and that leads to hit getting hurt.

Finally, there’s a changeup that I’m a big fan of. The pitch sits in the low-80s and has a good late biting dip to it. He seems to throw the pitch a good amount, which shows he trusts it – and that makes sense. It looks like a fastball out of his hand and leaves a lot of hitters looking bad. Good control over the pitch already.

Liu sometimes struggles to find his pitches. This leads to those implosion outings and sometimes much smaller “implosion innings” during an otherwise solid outing. If he can figure that out, there’s a lot for the Red Sox to love about the starting pitcher.

Fastball: 55
Slider: 55
Changeup: 60
Control: 50
Overall: 55

No. 22: Red Sox third base prospect Antoni Flores

Antoni Flores was a shortstop his entire career heading into 2021. This season, the 20-year-old didn’t even appear at the position once for the Red Sox. Instead, he was playing third base (with a tiny bit of second base sprinkled in).

Personally, I think his career would be best served if he stuck to shortstop. The defense is the moneymaker for Flores. It’s elite Gold-Glove-every-year type potential. However, he is phenomenal in other areas of his game. The Red Sox have a few shortstop prospects they seem to value a little bit higher. Like Matthew Lugo, who was playing shortstop on the same team as Flores this year.

With the likes of Lugo and others (especially including Marcelo Mayer now), the Red Sox probably wanted to see how Flores could handle other positions. The good news is he’s talented enough that the defense should translate to third and second base if they choose to go that route.

Personally though, why not let the one who plays the position the best stay there? Try the not-as-gifted-fielders elsewhere? I’m not in charge so I can’t really say.

Anyways, let’s get into the player. Flores is one of the best defenders in the Red Sox entire system, I love watching him in the field it’s so fluid. He shows off solid range, makes all the routine plays, throws in flashy plays, and has a phenomenal arm. Legitimate Gold-Glove type player.

As for his offensive game, Flores is still growing there. The good news is, the right-handed hitter is only 20. So he has more than enough time to improve. In 45 games in Low-A this year, Flores slashed .232/.335/.331 with 12 doubles and one home run. He drove in a strong 22 runs and scored 23 more though, stealing two bases.

Flores absolutely has the profile of someone that could become a solid hitter. Nothing insane, but he could definitely hit .260-range and he does have some power potential. 30-plus doubles and 15-20 home runs could be in his future. That could lead to someone really good run production from someone that the Red Sox would probably have near the bottom of the order. It’s especially phenomenally from a Gold Glover – just saying.

He has some speed too. 10-15 steals are possible. Meanwhile, he’s going to stretch some hits for extra bases, beat out some grounds, and use his speed to help score runs. It will also show in his defense with solid range.

Overall, Flores probably won’t excite everyone. They’ll see someone who is very raw and needs to improve at the plate. But you need to look past that. You need to see a 20-year-old who is already a fantastic defender and has shown he can make things happen with his bat.

Fun fact, Antoni Flores is also one of the biggest MVPs in my all-Red-Sox-prospect team in MLB The Show. We’re surprisingly really good right now, slumping, but still in first. And yes, I have an all-Red-Sox-prospect team. Don’t act like that surprises you.

Hit: 45
Power: 50
Run: 50
Arm: 70
Field: 70
Overall: 55

No. 21: Red Sox corner infield prospect Nicholas Northcut

Nick Northcut was incredibly fun to watch this season. Playing in Low-A Salem, the 22-year-old tore the absolute cover off the ball all year long. He slashed .261/.352/.513 – that’s phenomenal. Meanwhile, the right-handed hitter drove in 77 runs and scored 68 more. That’s insane run production, as he didn’t play a full year. And in just 345 at-bats he racked up 32 doubles, two triples, and 17 home runs. He’s a masher.

Northcut is actually a pretty decently well-rounded player. The only category that he isn’t particularly great in is speed. There’s really not much to talk about there. He isn’t insanely slow or anything but he isn’t fast, and that will never be a part of his game.

Outside of that, it’s all pretty good-to-great. The defense is fine. He plays both first base and third base. I feel like he looks better at first base. Although he came in as a third baseman it seems like Northcut is smoother and more natural at first. However, he has a very good arm that plays well at third and is kind of wasted at first. That’s his best asset on defense so it’s a weird situation.

Offensively, he’s a juggernaut. Northcut went on a run for a while during 2021 that saw him really boost the average. It proved that he can hit for contact while still putting a lot of muscle into the swings and hitting the ball a mile.

Might not ever be a .300-hitter but could absolutely manage .270-range. 91 strikeouts wasn’t great but it really wasn’t terrible. He sometimes gets into funks where the K is far too common but that’s something he can limit at times too. If Northcut improves there, it would be massive. Meanwhile, he has a decent eye and can get on-base even if he isn’t hitting the ball well. That being said sometimes when he starts to slump, that’s when the strike zone gets expanded (that’s natural for most hitters though).

The power is already shining through. He can be a 30 double and 25-30 home run bat. There’s a ton of pop in his bat and Fenway could be a great place for it to thrive.

Northcut is sort of in a weird position due to his position. He plays the corner infield slots, but isn’t fantastic at either. However, he can manage both. That might help him as Boston has other options at both (looking at Devers and Casas mainly). It might get hard for the Red Sox to ignore the power if it keeps growing though.

Hit: 55
Power: 70
Run: 40
Arm: 55
Field: 45
Overall: 55

No. 20: Red Sox outfield prospect Nick Decker

I swear I didn’t do this on purpose – Nick Northcut and Nick Decker were a force together in Low-A this year and now they end up right next to each other on the Top-30 prospect list.

Decker does not have an overpowering aspect of his game like Northcut did with his power, but he’s much more well-rounded. He has potential to be good-to-great in everything really.

The 22-year-old slashed .276/.377/.452 in 250 at-bats for Salem this year. He hit 18 doubles, one triple, and eight home runs. In that time, the left-handed hitter also drove in 39 runs and scored another 55 – even stealing four bases.

Decker struck out a bit too much (83 times) but had a decent 37 walks. He’s getting better in this area, and it could really help boost his already solid average and OBP. Potential to hit .280 with 30 doubles and 20 home runs.

When it comes to speed, Decker is pretty solid there. He isn’t in the elite-speed category, but certainly above average. The outfielder can cover a lot of ground on defense and make a lot of plays with his legs on the base paths. Could get 15-20 steals.

Defensively, I’ve already talked about how he can cover ground. Has a very sure glove and while his instincts aren’t the best, he is improving in that area. If he can get the first step and pursuit angles down, there could be something really good here. Definitely high potential. It doesn’t hurt that he has a very strong and accurate arm that will work anywhere and would be perfect for right field at Fenway.

Overall, Decker has some improving to do in a few areas of his game. But he can barrel up the ball nicely and has legitimate 20-20 potential. Good all-around game that the Red Sox should love. Defense, speed, and power are all above average and his hit and arm tools could both be true “plus” traits.

Hit: 60
Power: 55
Run: 55
Arm: 60
Field: 55
Overall: 55

No. 19: Red Sox catching prospect Nathan Hickey

The Red Sox selected Nathan Hickey in the fifth-round of the MLB Draft this year and the catcher has already found himself decently-high on the Top-30 prospects list.

Due to him being drafted in 2021, there isn’t much to go off when it comes to Hickey. The 21-year-old has only appeared in 11 games, picking up 28 at-bats and 40 plate appearances. Those 40 plate appearances were pretty impressive though.

The left-handed hitter may have only hit .214 with a .286 slugging percentage, but he managed a .400 on-base percentage thanks to an already impressive eye. Hickey hit just two doubles in that time, driving in two runs and scoring five more.

It was the nine walks that really impressed though. Now, at the same time he did have a bit of a strikeout problem. 10 strikeouts in just 28 at-bats and 40 plate appearances isn’t a great look. It’s a young player getting his first taste of professional ball though, so you need to cut him a little bit of slack.

I haven’t gotten to see much of his defense, but it does not seem to be anything phenomenal. He’s definitely much more of an offensive catcher. Hickey does appear to have a solid arm, which could make up for some of his deficiencies on the defensive end. He currently has some problems with framing and blocking the ball. Those can be improved with some work though, so it is certainly something to keep an eye on.

Hickey also is not much of a runner. But that’s nothing wild to hear from a catcher. He isn’t going to add anything to the game with his speed. For his position though, it’s nothing terrible.

As I’ve alluded to, the main attraction here is his offense. Hickey definitely has potential to be a perennial .280-plus bat and could turn into someone that can manage 25-plus doubles and 20-plus home runs. That would likely equate to some really good run production as well.

There are a few catchers ahead of him in the Red Sox system though, so Hickey might need to improve his defense if he wants to make headway there. Don’t be surprised if he is moved to a corner infield spot at some point unless he makes those necessary leaps.

Hit: 60
Power: 65
Run: 35
Arm: 60
Field: 45
Overall: 55

No. 18: Red Sox starting pitching prospect Brandon Walter

Brandon Walter is the perfect example of how hard it was to place the prospects in their rankings. I couldn’t decide where to put him. At one point, I didn’t even have him in the Top-30. At another point, he was sitting at 12. It’s been a roller-coaster ride.

The left-handed pitcher has one big thing going against him that made it so hard to place him. That would be the fact that he is 25 and hasn’t pitched past High-A yet. There’s some good news there though. Walter just turned 25 in September. Meanwhile, he looked phenomenal in 2021. Starting 2022 in Double-A is very strong possibility. With it, there’s a legitimate chance he could be in the Majors as soon as late next season.

And as I’m typing all this, I’m once again wondering if I don’t have him placed properly. It would make an awful lot of sense to have him sitting somewhere a tiny bit lower.

One of the things you have to love about Walter is how close he is to the Majors, despite not pitching any higher than High-A yet. That’s because he seems to already have a lot of what he needs.

In 2021, the lefty tossed 89 1/3 innings between Low-A and High-A. He posted a 2.92 ERA, .199 BAA, and 0.97 WHIP in that time. Walter went 5-4 with two holds and two saves in two opportunities. Perhaps most impressively, he struck out 132 batters compared to 20 walks.

Working with three pitches, he could play a role as a starter or a reliever able to eat innings if needed. And both are something Boston could use.

Walter’s fastball sits in the low-mid-90s but he can reach back for 97. The pitch has some two-seam movement to it but it’s best property is it’s sinking action. As you can tell, there’s a good amount of movement. He has good control over the pitch. Definitely a very strong fastball.

His slider works in the low-80s with a good sweeping horizontal-ish break to it. Good command for the most part but sometimes it isn’t working as well for him. When it’s on though, Walter can drop it in to steal a strike – or toss it away and have a hitter looking stupid.

Finally there’s a changeup. And anyone that knows me doesn’t need me to tell them – a changeup is my favorite pitch. So I’m happy to tell you Walter’s is pretty nasty. Low-mid-80s with tons of movement and great late drop to it. Looks like a fastball out of his hand, but that speed and drop will leave hitters flailing. Good command, but could get a little better. Overall great pitch with even better potential though.

Overall, Walter is in a weird spot. As a 25-year-old who hasn’t worked past High-A, he’s going to probably have some doubters. There is a lot to love about the lefty though – don’t be fooled. He’s certainly proving he can dominate in the minors and could make it to the Majors as early as 2022 for the Red Sox.

Fastball: 55
Slider: 60
Changeup: 60
Control: 55
Overall: 55

No. 16: Red Sox catching prospect Kole Cottam

I love Kole Cottam, I don’t think that’s much of a secret. The catcher won my heart when I was watching him play back in 2018 – his first season in the Red Sox system. I even mentioned him as someone I was excited to watch in 2019.

So far, he hasn’t disappointed at all.

Cottam slashed .278/.371/.500 in 71 games between High-A and Double-A. In just 234 at-bats he roped 18 doubles, two triples (career-high), and 10 home runs (career-high). The right-handed hitter drove in 33 runs and scored 33 more.

He had a strikeout issue this year, but has also shown great patience and a very good eye. Cottam has shown good run production skills and a serious ability to get on-base. There’s plenty of pop in his bat too, and that can continue to grow. He isn’t fast, but for his position it’s not bad. Nothing that’s going to kill you or the opposing team, just sort of there.

Could hit over .250 and creep up towards .280 even. Will get on-base a lot. And the potential for 30-plus doubles and 20-plus home runs is very real. This would lead to some great run production from the catcher position, which is always a massive positive. Let him pepper the Green Monster.

The big thing to talk about here is his defense though. Yes, the main attraction with Cottam is his offense. But I wouldn’t be doing my job if I didn’t praise the improvements that he has made.

Cottam came into the Red Sox system 100% as a hitting catcher. He had potential defensively, but he seemed to be a fringe-guy. Three years in and he’s changed the perception completely, or at least he should have by now.

Cottam has immensely improved his game-calling skills. The 24-year-old is vastly better at blocking the plate as well, and framing pitches. Even his arm looks like it’s gotten better. It was such a step forward that anyone paying attention had to be impressed.

What really excites me though is the fact that he clearly worked hard and it payed off and we saw some rapid improvements. Cot saw the hole in his game and did his best Dulé Hill in HOLES impression “I can fix that.” (If you don’t appreciate that reference please stop reading and block all my social media pages, I don’t want to interact with you anymore).

It’s that type of mentality that gets you far. He wasn’t content being a good offensive catcher. Cottam wanted to be the entire package. And now he’s getting there. With this type of work ethic and a now proven track record of fast improvements, there’s no telling where he could go next.

The Red Sox have a lot of fantastic catching prospects. Cottam is right near the top of that list though. Pay attention to him, because the bat is impossible to deny and the defense is improving by the day. Could be special if the Red Sox give him the chance he deserves.

Hit: 65
Power: 65
Run: 35
Arm: 55
Field: 55
Overall: 55

No. 15: Red Sox shortstop prospect Matthew Lugo

Matthew Lugo is a very interesting one. First of all, he’s the nephew of Carlos Beltran. I’ve said it before but I’ll say it here again – when Lugo makes it to the Majors expect to hear that in every National Broadcast. Every game on ESPN, FOX, TBS, and others. That will be their go-to trivia. It will be the baseball version of “Julian Edelman used to play quarterback” and “Chris Hogan plays lacrosse”.

Lugo is very much his own person though. The shortstop had an up-and-down season in 2021. The numbers ended up being solid. However, there were a few cold streaks (that some insane hot streaks counteracted). And he had some fielding issues.

The right-handed hitter slashed .270/.338/.364 in 105 games in Low-A this season. He didn’t do too much with the power swing, notching 21 doubles, three triples, and four home runs. However, that’s something that he absolutely has the chance to develop into something serious.

Lugo managed solid run production with 50 RBI and 61 runs scored. He hit .301 with runners in scoring position, so he has already shown he can hit in clutch situations. Meanwhile, he stole 15 bases and that could be a serious part of his game.

Lugo has potential to hit around .300. He won’t strikeout too much and has a pretty decent eye. The power is a question mark. He will likely never be a serious home run threat. That being said, he has plenty of gap power, which could lead to 40-plus doubles and a handful of triples thanks to his speed. As for home runs, he could manage 15 potentially.

The speed is legit and don’t be surprised if he turns into a 25-30-plus steal player. He’ll give you some runs on the base paths. That being said, any scout will tell you he could lose some speed as his body matures. But only time will tell, as of right now it’s a great tool.

The fielding is sort of a weird one to grade. Lugo has all the tools to be very good here. A strong arm and he can get the ball out quickly. He has plenty of range and good footwork. Good glove too. Everything is there on paper. And when you watch him you’ll think he’s a natural most of the time. However, there are times where he just loses it. The ball will sail on him. It will bounce of his glove. Any number of issues. And it led to 35 errors on the year.

Now, Lugo is only 20. So mistakes are bound to happen. He also is playing in Low-A, which means his teammates are less likely to bail him out with scoops or other good plays. But that number definitely needs to improve. He has all the tools to be pretty great in the field though. Don’t let errors in Low-A at 20 years old turn you off to a prospect please.

It sounds wild, especially because I always say I am a big fan of “what have you done for me?” The eye-test and stats are two easy ways to grade a prospect. But sometimes bad defensive and pitching stats especially are hard to grade. Because there are so many factors in minor league baseball.

Overall, Lugo could be a very good offensive player with speed and good contact. He might be able to sprinkle in some power too. Meanwhile, his defense has the potential to be great. But there is also some risk with him. Thank makes it all that much more fun for the Red Sox though, doesn’t it?

Hit: 60
Power: 45
Run: 65
Arm: 55
Field: 50
Overall: 55

No. 14: Red Sox catching prospect Ronaldo Hernandez

Ronaldo Hernandez was surprisingly traded to the Red Sox last offseason. It was surprising for two reasons. First of all, he was sent over by AL East rivals – the Tampa Bay Rays. Second, Hernandez was one of their better prospects. And he (as well as Nick Sogard how is very solid himself and had a great year) was traded to the Red Sox for Chris Mazza and Jeffrey Springs.

Mazza and Springs were both designated for assignment by Boston. So Tampa Bay might not even have had to trade for them. Mazza is 31 and posted a 4.80 ERA and 1.63 WHIP in 30 innings for the Red Sox in 2020. He had a 4.61 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in just 27 1/3 innings for the Rays this year. Springs is 28 and had a 7.08 ERA and 1.82 WHIP in 20 1/3 innings for the Red Sox in 2020 and a much better 3.43 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 44 2/3 innings for Tampa this year.

So one not-very-good pitcher and one potentially very solid one. Boston got their top catching prospect out of the deal.

2021 started off slow for Hernandez, and maybe that had Rays fans feeling good about the trade. He turned it around in a wild way however, and ended up having one of his best seasons ever.

The right-handed hitter slashed .284/.326/.501 in 99 games between Double-A and Triple-A. In seven games in Triple-A he managed a .333/.400/.444 slash line.

Hernandez smacked one triple and 16 home runs, to go with a career-high 29 doubles. He doesn’t strike out too much, but he also does not walk (just 12 times in 387 plate appearances in 2021).

The bat is absolutely legit. Hernandez has potential to hit around .270-plus, and could rack up the extra-base hits too. Similar situation to Cottam. 30-ish doubles and 20-ish home runs. Another catcher that could have fun with the Green Monster. He won’t hurt you with rally-killing strikeouts too often, but he needs to work on his patience.

The speed isn’t really there. Hernandez isn’t aggressively slow, but he’s a big catcher (6’1″, 230 lbs). You really shouldn’t expect him to be flying around the bases. Nothing miserable for his position but it won’t ever be a part of his game.

Fielding wise, Hernandez could be special. The 23-year-old is a solid game-caller already. However, he doesn’t help the pitchers in a few other ways. That is to say, Hernandez needs to improve when it comes to blocking and framing pitches. But he was getting better as the year moved on. There’s definitely potential for him to improve and for this to be a big part of his game.

The big thing here is that Hernandez has an absolute cannon of an arm. His caught stealing numbers weren’t phenomenal this year, but they have been in the past. I know this sounds weird, but I don’t really care about caught stealing numbers in the minors when they aren’t good. If they are good, that’s amazing – look at them. But if they’re bad, I just don’t care. There are too many factors in the minors to care about bad caught stealing numbers.

I am 100% sure if you went back and watched every potential steal against Hernandez this year you would see some pitchers being too slow to the plate, not noticing the runner, throwing a miserable pitch, or the tag man not making a good play on at least a handful of them.

Hernandez has a tank of an arm. Go watch him and you’ll know it immediately. In the Majors, he’s getting a good percentage and people will be hesitant to run on him pretty quickly.

Overall, Hernandez has a lot of great tools. He can be a great hitter with an elite arm. If he can continue to improve on his defense, there won’t be much to complain about when it comes to his game for the Red Sox.

Hit: 55
Power: 60
Run: 35
Arm: 70
Field: 60
Overall: 55

No. 13: Red Sox utility-man prospect Tyler McDonough

In the third round of the 2021 MLB Draft, the Red Sox selected Tyler McDonough out of North Carolina State. Want to hear little bit about him? Okay, well – dude can rake, mash, run, and field basically any position.

How does that sound? Pretty good?

McDonough slashed .298/.388/.496 with seven doubles, four triples, and three home runs in 31 games. He drove in 15 runs and scored 25 more, stealing three bases. The switch-hitter’s run production is legit, and he has a good eye.

Not a ton of home run power, but a pretty decent amount. Could manage a lot of extra base hits, with tons of doubles and peppering in some triples. 20-ish home runs is a real possibility as well.

He has great speed. This helps him on defense, adding a lot of range. Meanwhile, it could lead to not only him taking the extra-base on occasion, but stealing a good 20-plus bases.

As I’ve already mentioned, McDonough can play a ton of positions. He was mostly in center field this season. However, he can play all three outfield spots. He also played a decent amount at second base this year. The 22-year-old has even played some third base in the past and I wouldn’t be surprised if he took some reps at short and first to round it all out. Oh, and I did say “round it all out” because he used to be a catcher. Literally put him anywhere in the field.

McDonough has a glove too. Good first step, quick with a lot of range, soft glove, and good footwork. He doesn’t seem lost no matter where he is. And he has a very solid arm that should play at any position. Swiss-army-knife type players are invaluable. They can be plugged in anywhere, giving your team so much extra flexibility. The fact that he can give you a great OBP, with power and a ton of speed is just the icing on the cake.

McDonough could be a phenomenal utility-man. And one that will be good defensively anywhere you put him. He’ll give you average and steals, and throw in a decent amount of home runs for good measure. Definitely someone to keep an eye on as he develops. The fact that he’s coming out of College means he’s already a little more mature, so he could climb the Red Sox ranks quickly.

Hit: 60
Power: 50
Run: 60
Arm: 55
Field: 55
Overall: 55

No. 12: Red Sox starting pitching prospect Wilkelman Gonzalez

Wilkelman Gonzalez signed with the Red Sox as an international free agent back in 2018. You’d be forgiven if you didn’t know much about him though. Why is that, you ask? Well for one thing, he was just 16 at the time and had a lot of maturing to do.

Throw in the fact that the right-hander only appeared in some Rookie Ball games (46 1/3 innings) in 2019 and he was a virtual unknown heading into this season.

However, 2021 saw more great pitching from Gonzalez in Rookie Ball. Then the big move happened, he made four starts in Low-A. And there, the 19-year-old dominated. This was huge. Gonzalez had this profile of a very very raw prospect. He has a lot of the potential, but needs to mature a lot. He’s only 6’0″ and weighs 167 lbs. There’s a lot that still needs to be worked on in his game.

So the fact that Gonzalez took the mound in Low-A and not only looked at home, but was untouchable – that was incredible.

Gonzalez posted a 1.53 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, .206 BAA in those four games. In 17 2/3 innings his only real issue was walks, issuing eight of them. However, he also managed 20 strikeouts in that time, helping keep the trouble at bay.

Gonzalez has already added a lot of velocity on his fastball since signing. It sits in the low-to-mid 90s with just absolutely ridiculous life on it. The pitch moves all over the place, every direction and sort of action that you could think of. However, sometimes he loses control of it. If he can figure it out, this pitch will be unstoppable. Especially considering the velo could still go up.

There’s a solid changeup with good late drop to it. The pitch sits in the low-80s. However, as of right now, it could still use some fine tuning. Deceptive arm motion, sort of looking like his fastball out of his arm. However, sometimes it’s pretty obvious – and sometimes he loses command of it and leaves it a little flat.

Lastly, Gonzalez has a curveball. The pitch sits in the high-70s with a lot of great break to it. Even when he doesn’t throw his best offering, it still moves enough to confuse hitters. Wipeout pitch that could be a serious strikeout-racker.

Gonzalez needs to work on his command at the moment. Other than that though, it’s hard to complain about him. He has an incredible fastball. His curveball could be elite, and his changeup has all the potential in the world if he can just fix a few things. He’s already performing well in the minors too despite being seen as an extremely raw prospect. It’s important to remember that’s he’s only 19 when considering his flaws too. Plenty of time to work things out.

Could be a future ace for the Red Sox.

Fastball: 65
Changeup: 55
Curveball: 60
Control: 50
Overall: 55

No. 11: Red Sox middle infield prospect Jeter Downs

2021 was not very kind to Jeter Downs. The second baseman and shortstop slashed .190/.272/.333 in 99 games (357 at-bats). However, there are a few things I feel people should remember when it comes to him.

Downs was playing in a new organization – a year after the 2020 minor league season was cancelled. He was also doing so while playing in Triple-A. Before this year, he had 12 career games in Double-A – nothing higher than that. He also spent most of the year as a 22-year-old at the highest level of the minors.

A lot of things were going against Downs here and with it, the numbers suffered for the right-handed hitter. Nine doubles was a terrible sign. He hit 23 in 2018 and 35 in 2019. The 14 homers were down from 24 in 2019, but still decent. Run production wasn’t great either, with 39 RBI and 39 runs scored. While his steals were down, getting 18 in just 21 attempts is very promising.

Downs is an all-around talent. You shouldn’t judge him too harshly on his 2021 season. The bright side is that he was swinging a much better bat towards the end of the year. Let’s not give up on a 23-year-old who was highly touted coming into the season.

Downs still has the potential to be a .280-plus bat. And even in his down year he showed that he is able to hit the ball out of the park. With more than enough speed, he has gap power that could lead to a high volume of doubles and triples. 20-plus home runs is easily within the realm of possibilities as well.

Downs has a good amount of speed, and is a solid base runner. 20 steals is doable. Might dip below that usually, but could throw in a few 20-20 seasons if he gets on-base enough.

He also has a pretty solid eye. Even in 2021, was able to walk a decent amount (38) and if he can start to improve at the plate again that number should rise. Downs does have a bit of a strikeout issue though. It was very prevalent in 2021. Outside of that, it was never too worrisome, but still something to keep an eye on. Hopefully he can bounce back on that as well.

Defensively, Downs is very solid. Probably won’t win any Gold Gloves. However, he shouldn’t be an issue at either of the two middle infield spots. That gives the Red Sox a little bit of flexibility. He would probably work better at second base. He seems more natural there. And if he makes a few improvements, a Gold Glove wouldn’t be the craziest thing. Solid arm, will make all the throws he needs to. Looks good turning double plays.

Overall, Downs still has all the potential in the world. He’s not insane in any one category, but could be above-average in all of them. Good contact, solid power, decent speed with great base running ability, reliable arm, soft glove. It’s all there.

Like I said earlier, don’t let one (admittedly miserable) year turn you off of Downs. The Red Sox still see big things for him. All the tools are there, now he just needs to get back to his dangerous ways. It will be interesting to see how he handles Triple-A next season now that he has had a lot of time there. If he figures it out, could we see him in the Majors in 2022?

Hit: 50
Power: 55
Run: 60
Arm: 55
Field: 55
Overall: 55

No. 10: Red Sox utility-man prospect Ceddanne Rafaela

Anyone that follows me on Twitter (@hnoll21 give the kid a follow) knows that I have an unhealthy obsession with Ceddanne Rafaela (and Liv Morgan). And anyone that reads my articles knows that I’ve made that same exact joke before.

I already wrote an article outlining how I feel Rafaela’s tools should be graded compared to what MLB had given him. However, that was during the season. I’m even higher on the prospect now. Rafaela just turned 21 in mid-September.

He spent the entire year in Low-A with the Salem Red Sox. On the year, Rafaela slashed .251/.305/.424 with fantastic run production, driving in 53 runs and scoring 73 more. He also stole 23 bases in just 26 attempts. A .280-plus bat could be in his future. Meanwhile, Rafaela won’t strikeout much and can draw a walk. The RBI numbers won’t be bad at all, and he has tons of speed. That speed will lead to a lot of runs and 30-plus steal potential.

One of the biggest improvements we saw on the year was with his power swing. Not showing much early on, Rafaela flipped a switch. He ended the season with 20 doubles, nine triples, and 10 home runs. It’s starting to look like there’s some legit power in his bat. I’m not saying he’ll be a massive pop threat. But 30-plus doubles, five-plus triples, and 15-plus home runs wouldn’t be crazy for the right-handed hitter.

Now let’s get to the defense, because this is just absolutely wild. In 2021, Rafaela spent time at third base, second base, shortstop, and all three outfield spots. Even at his young age, he’s already showing a serious ability to play multiple positions. That’s not even the crazy part though. The crazy part is that he is a Gold Glove talent defender at all the positions. And isn’t that something the Red Sox have really focused on recently? Players that can play multiple positions and give them flexibility?

Seriously, every time I tuned into a game, Rafaela would make some sort of play. It didn’t matter where he was on the field. Not only did he look comfortable, but he looked like a natural. He was making great reads, diving plays, incredible throws – and more. It’s way too entertaining to watch him play defense. If the Red Sox decide to have Rafaela focus on one position, he will win Gold Gloves (plural) at that position. Keep him as a utility-man, and he’ll give you Gold Glove defense wherever you put him at that night.

This isn’t just me thinking this either. Go to the Salem Red Sox Twitter and Instagram pages. You can find some highlights from Rafaela there. Or you could even just look at the MiLB awards. Rafaela was named Boston’s MiLB defensive player of the year.

He truly is their best defensive prospect. Rafaela’s not just defense though, he’s got promise offensively and elite speed. Listed at 5’8″, 152 lbs – his size might make people underrate him. Give Rafaela a chance though, he’ll likely surprise you.

This was my biggest “jump.” MLB does not have Rafaela as a top-30 prospect in the Red Sox system. After watching him all year, that astounds me. How can you watch someone put up that performance in 2021 at such a young age and then go and overlook him?

Maybe I’m drinking the Kool-Aid too heavily (red with a disgusting amount of sugar is GOATed) but I seriously see a potential future star. Someone Red Sox Nation needs to pay attention to.

Hit: 55
Power: 45
Run: 70
Arm: 70
Field: 70
Overall: 60

No. 9: Red Sox third base prospect Blaze Jordan

Blaze Jordan has taken almost no time at all to prove how special he can be. The Red Sox drafted him in the third round back in 2020 and he made his MiLB debut in 2021. Despite being just 18, Jordan is already showing insane power.

The right-handed hitter appeared in just 28 games between Rookie Ball and Low-A this year due to injury. That’s all he needed to make an impression though. Jordan slashed .324/.368/.590 with an incredibly impressive 26 RBI and 19 runs scored. He even stole a base.

What stood out the most though was the power. In only 105 at-bats, Jordan managed to mash eight doubles, one triple, and six home runs. For those keeping track at home, that means he recorded an extra-base hit every seven at-bats.

Obviously, there isn’t a lot to go off with Jordan here. He’s only had 105 at-bats in his MiLB career, and only 36 of those came in Low-A. And with him being so young, there is a lot of projecting you have to do here. Not only do you have to take into account that he hasn’t played much professional baseball – but also that he is still maturing and could see major changes in his game.

That being said, it’s impossible not to look at Jordan and love the potential. He’s got just about everything going for him. All the tools of his game (with the exception of speed) could absolutely end up grading out to be above-average.

What makes this a little more tricky though is the position. Jordan came in as a third baseman. But it wouldn’t be surprising if the Red Sox made a switch to first base. Or maybe even a corner outfield spot as he does have a solid arm. So there are a few different positions he could play, and this would factor into his fielding rating.

For now though, he’s a third baseman – so that’s what we go off of.

There might be some concern when it comes to strikeouts, but I’m honestly not worried. Jordan has already shown he can make adjustments and while it might not be a “great” category for him it won’t be crippling or anything. He should hit for pretty decent averages. And if he can continue to improve his eye, we could see him find a few .300 seasons with good OBPs.

Meanwhile, the power has potential to be insane. I’m talking 35-plus homer potential. That’s always fun. There’s really nothing else to say here. Jordan’s already showing he has power and that’s something you should expect to grow even more as he matures.

Speed won’t ever be a part of his game. He isn’t slow, but he isn’t fast. Jordan might be able to get a few steals. And he won’t have any issue legging out doubles. But don’t expect him to bring much to the table here. Fast enough, especially for his position and with his power. His speed certainly won’t hurt the Red Sox though.

The arm is really solid. I think it’s a little underrated in fact. Jordan can bring some heat and that should translate nicely to third base. Meanwhile, he’s a pretty decent fielder too. I think he might work better at first base when it comes to the glove, but that would then sort of be wasting his good arm. Defense will be interesting for Jordan. Remember he’s only 18, there’s a lot of time for him to get better here. He’s already not bad at all and has shown some natural abilities. With time he could be very solid.

Overall, Jordan is such an entertaining prospect at the moment. He’s still a few years from the Majors but it will be fun watching him mature. When he does get there though, it’s going to be thanks to the bat. The defense might be good and the speed will be “eh”. But it’s the offense that will draw eyes to him. Legitimate stud-middle-of-the-order type hitter for the Red Sox.

Hit: 60
Power: 70
Run: 45
Arm: 60
Field: 55
Overall: 60

No. 8 Red Sox starting pitching prospect Chris Murphy

It’s no secret that I love Murph. That’s my guy. Chris Murphy was selected by the Red Sox in the sixth-round of the 2019 MLB Draft. He immediately made a strong impression.

2021 was more of the same story. Some of the numbers don’t reflect just how good he was though. In 101 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A, the left-hander posted a 4.62 ERA. That’s not a great number, but as you can see he was promoted midway through the year. There’s a very clear reason for that.

Murphy looked great on the mound. He just ran into trouble a few times, and it hurt his ERA pretty badly. However, he still had a solid .246 BAA and strong 1.26 WHIP. He also struck out a hefty 128 batters. Outside of the ERA, the numbers were very good.

Don’t forget too, this was his first full year in the minors. Before this season, he had 10 appearances (33 1/3 innings) in Short-A (which isn’t even a thing anymore) – that’s it.

This should tell you that the Red Sox have pretty big plans for Murphy. They started him in High-A and even got him to Double-A this year. They’re moving him up the ranks quickly.

The 23-year-old has four pitches. They start with a fastball that tends to sit in the low-mid 90s. However, he can crank it up a little bit more sometimes. Good movement, but the control isn’t 100%. Sometimes he’ll lose the pitch, and that contributed to his home run problem (21 allowed) and his walks (36, which isn’t terrible but sometimes he would lose the strike zone for a bit and get himself in trouble).

Then there’s a curveball that works in the mid-70s. This is an interesting pitch. Murphy has a ton of break on it, and it can be absolutely devastating at times. However, he doesn’t always have a feel for it. If left flat in the zone, that’s going to cause problems. That being said, if he can get some more command over the pitch this has potential to be great.

Next is a low-mid 80s slider. Not as much break as his curveball but still good sweeping action. He has better control over this pitch, so he is able to throw it more effectively. It has improved a lot and is a pitch he can bury to pick up some strikeouts. Will make hitters look stupid.

Finally, there’s a changeup. And oh, wow – Hunter’s talking about a changeup with heart eyes. Of course I am, don’t be stupid. A good changeup is the best pitch in baseball, fight me. Luckily, Murph has a nasty one. Looks like a fastball out of his hand, throws it with a similar motion and speed. However, the pitch works in the low-80s and has really nice late dip to it. He seems very comfortable using it and it will create a good amount of swings-and-misses as well as weak contact.

Overall, Murphy is creeping up on the minors already. There are a lot of positives to his game. The only real negative is that he was prone to the home run ball and a few implosion innings. They usually correlated with some bad luck and losing the strike zone. Murphy tends to have command of his pitches though, and when he does he can be untouchable. Someone the Red Sox need to pay close attention to.

Fastball: 60
Curveball: 55
Slider: 60
Changeup: 65
Control: 55
Overall: 60

No. 7: Red Sox starting pitching prospect Brayan Bello

Brayan Bello signed with the Red Sox back in 2017. Since then, he’s constantly shown flashes of brilliance. There is plenty to love, including some absolutely nasty pitches. However, in 2021 Bello took a major step forward.

No longer was the right-handed pitcher just showing “flashes of brilliance”. Instead, he was going out on the mound and dominating his competition. Constantly making hitters look miserable, racking up the strikeouts, and starting the year in High-A (the highest level he was ever in) and finishing the year in Double-A.

In that time, Bello combined for a 3.87 ERA, .251 BAA, and 1.28 WHIP in 21 starts. He walked 31 batters in 95 1/3 innings, but managed an absolutely ridiculous 132 strikeouts. That was thanks to those disgusting pitches mentioned earlier.

And at just 22, the fact that he was able to dominate like this is incredibly impressive. It helped him to fly up the ranks of the prospect ladder this year. Meanwhile, he got a lot closer to the Majors than many probably thought he would this early. Suddenly, the jump to Boston could arrive as soon as 2022.

How is he doing all this, you ask? Well Bello has a great four-pitch repertoire. That includes a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and can even touch triple-digits. There’s plenty of movement to the pitch, and he can blow it by batters. Command needs some work though.

He also has a two-seam that is a few MPH slower, but adds even more movement. Again, the command could use some work, but it’s nothing to worry about.

Next up is a slider with pretty sharp break to it. Not the sweepiest of pitches, but the movement is quick, it snaps. That should get a lot of hitters reaching for it. The pitch sits in the mid-high-80s and it can produce a lot of bad swings. However, sometimes he leaves the pitch flat. That’s when he gets in trouble. If he can figure that out and fix the command a little bit, this could be a devastating pitch.

Finally, there’s a very good changeup that sits in the mid-high-80s. Looks pretty similar to his fastball out of his hands. However, Bello can get the pitch to take a pretty devastating drop right at the plate. That, combined with the “slower” speed of the pitch should get a lot of strikeouts for the righty.

Overall, Bello still needs to work on a few things. The command isn’t terrible, but sometimes he loses control. This leads to not only walks, but some hard hit balls – especially if his slider isn’t working. He has a lot going for him too though. And could absolutely build on all three pitches. If that happens, he has true ace potential for the Red Sox.

Fastball: 65
Slider: 60
Changeup: 65
Control: 55
Overall: 60

No. 6: Red Sox starting pitching prospect Jay Groome

Jay Groome used 2021 to reestablish himself as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. In his first start of the year, the left-handed pitcher allowed five earned runs in two innings. Then four earned runs in 2 1/3 innings. Next, three earned runs in three innings.

After that, he allowed 40 earned runs over his last 90 innings. Despite that terrible start and a select few other bad starts, Groome was phenomenal. The left-handed pitcher finished with a 4.81 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and .239 BAA. He struck out 134 batters in just 97 1/3 innings (although he did walk 36 batters) between High-A and Double-A.

Even more important, Groome made three starts in Double-A to finish the year. In those three starts the 23-year-old posted a 2.30 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .211 BAA. He struck out 26 batters (compared to four walks) in 15 2/3 innings.

Groome has all the tools to be an elite pitcher. The only thing that has held him back has been a myriad of injuries. 2021 was his healthiest season. After knocking off the rust, he proved how good he can be.

He needs to work on his command a bit, but he has good control over his pitches (if that makes any sense). He tends to have the pitches working, but sometimes gets a little wild.

Groome’s fastball sits in the low-90s. I wouldn’t be surprised if he can ramp it up a few more miles though. Great movement, and can get a good amount of swings-and-misses. If he can keep the fastball under control, it could be a phenomenal pitch. That’s impressive, because if he does get a little more speed on it – this will be dangerous.

His changeup is actually the worst of his secondary pitches. That’s saying something because it’s still a really solid pitch. Actually, let me rephrase that. Groome’s changeup is his worst secondary pitch, right now. And that’s only because he isn’t very consistent with it. This could be a great pitch. It has deceptive movement, good dip, and sits in the high-70s to low-80s. However, sometimes it just isn’t working. It won’t dip, is obvious out of his hand, etc. That brings it down a bit, but when it’s on – it’s on.

Next is a slider with a sharp bite to it. Not crazy movement, but a good amount. Paired with the fact that it cuts so quickly, it can be pretty nasty. This pitch sits around the mid-80s and has plenty of potential. He just started working on it in 2020. So the fact that it’s already this good makes you think it has potential to be elite.

Finally there’s a curveball and wow is it disgusting. I’m pretty sure I’ve used this comp on Groome’s curve before but I don’t care. Remember prime Barry Zito? He came into the league and immediately became one of the best pitchers in baseball for like four years? A serious reason for that was his wicked curveball. Groome has the same potential here. High-70s to low-80s with phenomenal drop. Dips sharply and he has pretty solid command of it. This is already an MLB-level out-pitch. Give it another year or two and it could be one of those pitches you see 10 times on Pitching Ninja every time he starts.

Overall, Groome has sort of flown under the radar because of all the injuries that stumbled the start of his career. However, he’s back to being that elite-potential ace that everyone was hoping for when the Red Sox drafted him. Could be in the Majors relatively soon and could turn into a top-tier starter pretty fast.

Fastball: 60
Curveball: 70
Slider: 60
Changeup: 55
Control: 55
Overall: 60

No. 5: Red Sox outfield prospect Gilberto Jimenez

Gilberto Jimenez had an interesting 2021 season. The reason for that is some people might consider it “disappointing”. However, the only real reason you could call it disappointing is because he came into the year significantly bulked up. And with it, there were talks that he added a lot of power to his game.

Instead, Jimenez actually posted the worst slugging percentage of his career. That being said, it was the only negative part of his game. Everything else was extremely promising. The switch-hitter slashed .306/.346/.405 with 16 doubles, six triples, and three home runs. He hit much better against right-handed pitching (.330/.377/.428) than he did left-handed pitching (.211/.222/.316). This doesn’t concern me from such a young hitter though. Has potential to hit well from both sides of the plate.

Despite the lack of power, the average was very much still there. He also had no issues with run production, driving in 56 and scoring 64 more.

This was thanks to a very clutch-bat. If you can hit in clutch situations, you don’t need power to drive in runs. And Jimenez slashed .363/.385/.520 with runners in scoring position in 2021. That’s pretty wild.

Jimenez had a bit of a strikeout problem at one point, but he corrected it somewhat. And it likely won’t be much of a problem for him as he matures. The 21-year-old will definitely put the ball in play a heavy majority of the time. With crazy speed, that’s going to cause problems for the defense. Could be a .300 hitter in the Majors. Won’t give you much in the homer department but could still mature there and get 10-15. Meanwhile, the speed and contact should lend itself to all types of doubles and triples.

Speaking of his speed, Jimenez hasn’t stolen that many bases in his minor league career – just 13 in 2021. However, he has the speed to rack them up. This is something the Red Sox need desperately. Imagine if they had someone that was not only getting on-base at a high clip, but then stealing bases at will. Give someone for all those power bats to bring in. *Chef’s kiss*

Defensively, there’s not much bad to say here. Jimenez still seems like he’s learning a little bit. Sometimes his read of the ball off the bat isn’t great. However, that speed makes up for it. If he can get the instincts right, this is 100% a Gold Glove type player. It also helps that he has a really strong arm. An arm that might surprise you due to his smaller size (5’11”, 212 lbs) and the lack of power in his bat. He has no problems throwing base runners out though. Would be great patrolling that massive center field at Fenway Park.

Even if the power never improves, it’s hard not to fall in love with Jimenez. Not everyone in the lineup needs to be a 30-plus home run type of bat. Not to sound like an old head here, but I miss those contact and steal type players. Having one or two of them in the lineup can do wonders for an offense.

Jimenez could legitimately hit .300 and steal 50 bases. He might throw in a couple homers. Meanwhile, he can play elite defense. Tell me you wouldn’t love having that on your team. The stock took a hit this year because people were disappointed with the lack of power, but to me that just means he is who we thought he was – and that’s a top-tier prospect in every other aspect of the game.

Hit: 65
Power: 40
Run: 75
Arm: 65
Field: 65
Overall: 60

No. 4: Red Sox starting pitching prospect Bryan Mata

This one was so painful. Bryan Mata missed the entire season after an injury right before the year started led to Tommy John surgery. 2019 saw him pitch in High-A and Double-A. In that time, he showed plenty of flashes of brilliance. Flashes that made you 100% sure he would be an ace.

So of course a serious injury had to come in and ruin the fun. The good news is, Mata is only 22. So there is plenty of time for him to come back and still develop in the minors. Even after all that he could still be just 23 or 24 when he makes his Major League debut.

The right-handed pitcher has almost everything going for him. There’s only one glaring issue, and that is his control. Mata’s had some serious walk problems in his career. In 315 innings in the minors, he’s allowed 145 base on balls. That’s something that needs to get worked out.

However, he’s already making improvements on that. In 2018, Mata walked 58 batters in 72 innings. Then in 2019, he lowered that number to 42 walks despite throwing a career-high 105 innings. He also managed 111 strikeouts in that time (307 in his career).

Most impressively though, Mata has always been one of the youngest players at his level and he dominates while doing so. He has a career 3.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .242 BAA. So far, he’s given up just 13 home runs in those 315 innings – that’s wildly impressive.

Mata has one of the best fastballs I’ve ever seen. It plays in the mid-high 90s and can go back over 100. Really good movement. When he can command the pitch, it’s really hard to hit. He also has a two-seamer that sits in the mid-90s with even more ridiculous movement. Same thing here, if he’s commanding it – you probably aren’t hitting it.

Then there’s a changeup that looks just like his fastball, but sits in the low-mid-80s. It has really solid late drop to it too. However, sometimes he throws the pitch a little bit too hard. That leads to it basically being a high-80s fastball with not much drop on it. Tends to be a really solid pitch though and even when it isn’t great, he buries it down so it doesn’t lead to home runs.

Next is a curveball in the high-70s to low-80s. Really nice sweeping break to it. What’s great about it is even though it’s a sweeping pitch, he can snap it off. So the break is actually really sharp and quick. This should lead to a lot of hitters looking pretty bad. Has decent command of the pitch, but sometimes lets it get away from him.

Finally, there’s a really nasty slider in the high-80s to low-90s. Really hard and late break to it, which is going to cause absolute migraines for opposing hitters. If any pitch is going to rival his fastball, it’s this one. Especially considering how much it is improving in rapid succession. Seems like something he can throw whenever and will devastate hitters.

Overall, Mata is an absolute ace. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the Red Sox best pitcher by 2025. Maybe even one of the best in the Majors. I know the hype has cooled off a bit with him due to the injury. But he’ll remind everyone just how good he is in 2022. If he gets that control under control, the sky is the limit.

Fastball: 75
Slider: 65
Curveball: 60
Changeup: 60
Control: 45
Overall: 60

No. 3: Red Sox shortstop prospect Marcelo Mayer

The Red Sox had the fourth overall pick in the 2021 MLB Draft. They were poised to get a great prospect. No one dreamed that they would somehow land Marcelo Mayer though. The shortstop was seen as the top prospect in the draft, by a large margin. That’s not insulting any of the other prospects either – Mayer is just that good.

Just how high is everyone on Mayer? MLB already has him listed as the top prospect in the Red Sox organization and the ninth best prospect in all of baseball. That’s absolute insanity. The sky is the limit. Superstar potential.

As of right now though, I don’t really have all that much to go off of. He’s an 18-year-old left handed hitter with a phenomenal build that could allow him to help the team in any number of ways. Great defensive potential and insane offensive potential. It’s all there.

Mayer appeared in 26 games (91 at-bats) for Rookie Ball this year. He slashed .275/.377/.440 with four doubles, one triple, and three home runs. Mayer also drove in 17 runs, scored 25 more, and stole seven bases.

Next year he’ll likely start his season in Low-A, and it will be extremely entertaining to watch what he does there and where he can go in 2022.

For now though, we have to go with projections based off of a small sample size. Mayer has an amazing bat. He has the potential to be a .300-ish hitter. Not only that though, but he can add 40-ish doubles and 25 home runs while doing it. This will help him to put up some fantastic run production as well.

The speed is decent. It isn’t a game-changer, but it’s decent. He could steal a few bases and certainly won’t shy away from extra-base hits. If Mayer can add 10 steals to the rest of his game, that’s just unfair.

Defensively, there’s a lot to love. Mayer has a smooth glove, good range, great footwork, and a strong and accurate arm. There really isn’t much to complain about in this area. Has the potential to be a Gold Glove winner at shortstop.

Overall, it’s hard to judge Mayer too much right now. However, there is a reason everyone is so high on him. Boston somehow landed the best prospect in the last draft and everyone in Red Sox Nation should be absolutely thrilled about that. In a few years, he could be a household name across the league.

Hit: 65
Power: 60
Run: 50
Arm: 60
Field: 65
Overall: 60

No. 2: Red Sox second base prospect Nick Yorke

Something that surprised a lot of people back in 2020 was when the Boston Red Sox used their first-round pick (17th overall) on infielder Nick Yorke. The second baseman was good, absolutely – but it seemed like a reach.

One year in, and there is no one left questioning this move. Yorke has been superb. In 2021 he spent time in Low-A and High-A. He appeared in 97 games (378 at-bats) in that time and Yorke only went out and slashed .325/.412/.516 as a 19-year-old. Wild doesn’t even begin to describe it.

The right-handed hitter showed some nice pop too, mashing 20 doubles, five triples, and 14 home runs. He drove in 62 runs and scored 76 more, stealing 13 bases. There was almost nothing to complain about. He’s not going to strikeout much (69 times in 2021) and will draw plenty of walks (52) at the same time. That disciplined at such a young age is so impressive.

What makes these numbers even better though, is the poor start to the year. Heading into a game on May 30, Yorke was hitting .177. So one month in, and he was sub-.200. Even worse, he was struggling a bit defensively with eight errors in that time as well.

Obviously the hitting corrected itself. But he was a whole different animal defensively too. Yorke committed just one error the rest of the way. He has solid range, really good footwork, a good glove, and a great arm for second base (used to play shortstop and could look good there too if needed).

Yorke has the potential to hit .300 with 30ish doubles and 15-plus home runs. He’ll be a great run producer and has enough speed and great base running skills that he could steal 15 bases as well. The ability to limit strikeouts and get on-base makes him a perfect 1-or-2 hitter.

Defensively, he could be well above-average. Not a perennial Gold Glove candidate, but he could be in the race regularly and win one or two.

Overall, the Red Sox hit an absolute home run with this draft pick. Nick Yorke looks to be an incredibly advanced hitter and someone that could be hitting .300 every year. Should be at the top of the order for a long long time. Even more impressively, he might find his way to the Majors within the next two years (with next season being an extremely long shot but possible).

Hit: 75
Power: 60
Run: 55
Arm: 55
Field: 60
Overall: 60

No. 1: Red Sox first base prospect Triston Casas

Marcelo Mayer has come along and everyone considers him the top prospect in the Red Sox organization now. That’s fair for a lot of reasons, but I can’t look past what Triston Casas has done.

Since being drafted by the Red Sox back in 2018, he has done nothing but impress. That includes a few accolades outside of the Red Sox organization. You know, like being one of the best players on a Silver Medal winning Team USA in the Olympics this year.

Casas had a great year between Double-A and Triple-A too. The left-handed hitter slashed .279/.394/.484 in 86 games (308 at-bats). What makes that even more impressive is the fact that he was out for so long due to the Olympics. What could he have done if his season wasn’t broken up?

Casas also roped 15 doubles, three triples, and 14 home runs. He drove in 59 runs and scored 63 more, even scoring seven bases. The discipline is phenomenal too. Despite being seen as a “power” hitter, he struck out 71 times (which isn’t bad) and managed 57 walks. Something that helps here is that Casas doesn’t seem too concerned with going for home runs. He’ll gladly choke up high on the bat (and somehow still hit home runs pretty regularly).

The Red Sox drafted Casas as a third baseman. He’s been playing first base though, and could be the Red Sox long-term answer there pretty quickly. The 21-year-old had decent range for third base but it’s really solid for first. He also has good footwork and is naturally good at picking balls in the dirt. Great glove and elite arm – especially for first base.

This isn’t going to be the part of the game people focus on when it comes to Casas, but he could be a Gold Glove type defender, he’s seriously that good.

Speed wise, there isn’t much going on here. Casas isn’t painfully slow, but he’s certainly not fast. He’s really good on the bases though and could steal a few bases if teams fall asleep on him and overestimate his slowness.

Overall, Casas is a superstar in the making. Middle-of-the-order bat for the Red Sox for a long time. Will be very good defensively. Meanwhile, he could hit around .300 with 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBI pretty regularly. The fact that he’ll gladly go oppo tells me that he’s going to fall in love with the Green Monster too, and pepper in a lot of doubles off the wall. He’s got such a complete game, it will be fun to watch.

It feels bold to predict a 21-year-old’s career. Especially when he’s never even played in the Majors. But he could go down as one of the best players in the history of the Red Sox if he spends his entire career in Boston.

Hit: 70
Power: 70
Run: 40
Arm: 65
Field: 65
Overall: 65