4 Biggest ‘What ifs’ of the Boston Red Sox postseason

BOSTON, MA - APRIL 20: Matt Barnes #32 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the ninth inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on April 20, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
BOSTON, MA - APRIL 20: Matt Barnes #32 of the Boston Red Sox pitches in the ninth inning of a game against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on April 20, 2021 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/Getty Images)
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The Boston Red Sox are officially in offseason mode after losing three in a row to end the ALCS and send the Houston Astros to the World Series.

While the Sox wait for the postseason to be over so they can start upgrading for next year, it’s time for a postmortem to examine what went wrong. Maybe these problems were unavoidable, but we’ll never know.

Here are the four biggest ‘What Ifs’ of the Sox postseason run:

What if Nathan Eovaldi had started Game 1 of the ALCS instead of Chris Sale?

Nathan Eovaldi opening the series in Houston felt like a foregone conclusion. He’s an absolute force of nature in October and had earned the honor of starting the series.

When Cora threw a curveball and announced that it would be Chris Sale instead, people worried that the Sox manager was overthinking or getting too cute with the roster moves. Sale had struggled in every postseason start of his career, especially against the Astros, who had lit him up in his October debut in the 2017 ALDS.

Sale ultimately went 2 2/3 innings and only allowed one earned run on five hits in Game 1, while Eovaldi went 5 1/3 innings and allowed three earned runs on five hits the following game. Despite the team loss, it was encouraging to see Sale tie his postseason career-high 5 1/3 innings in his Game 5 start a few days later.

Sale is still working back from Tommy John, and will hopefully be back to the scary old monster we knew and loved before 2019. But we’ll always wonder if the ALCS could’ve started on a more dominant note if Eovaldi had taken the mound in Game 1.

Matt Barnes #32 Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images
Matt Barnes #32 Photo by Duane Burleson/Getty Images /

What if Matt Barnes had been on the Red Sox ALCS roster?

This feels like the biggest ‘What If’ other than ‘What if the Red Sox offense hadn’t laid down and died for three straight games in the ALCS?’

Matt Barnes is supposed to be the Sox closer, so much so that they gave him a lucrative extension midway through the regular season. He won AL Reliever of the Month early in the season and was a first-time All-Star.

Barnes had an awful second half of the regular season, but it was still a shock when he was left off the ALDS and ALCS roster. He was ultimately added to the division series roster when Garrett Whitlock got hurt, and pitched a scoreless 9th inning in Game 2, allowing one hit and walking a pair of batters, but ultimately shutting down the potent Rays offense in a 14-6 win.

Despite his struggles down the regular-season stretch, Barnes still probably would’ve done as well, if not better in the ALCS than Darwinzon Hernandez and Hirokazu Sawamura, neither of whom had ever pitched in a postseason game prior to this series.

Barnes made his postseason debut in the 2016 ALDS and had 11 appearances worth of experience before this October, totaling a 0.87 ERA. Over 10 1/3 innings of postseason work between 2016-18, the righty held 42 batters to a .167/.286/.250 line and .536 OPS, and had only allowed one earned run.

Hernandez allowed two earned runs over 2/3 of an inning in his postseason debut in Game 2 of the ALCS, and followed it up with a scoreless 2/3 of an inning in Game 5.

Sawamura appeared in three ALCS games. Over two innings total, he only allowed one earned run, but it was in the eighth inning of Game 1, making it 5-3, Astros. The Red Sox answered back with a run in the top of the ninth that would have been a tying run, if not for Sawamura’s struggle the inning before.

Garrett Richards (43) Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
Garrett Richards (43) Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports /

What if Garrett Richards had been healthy for the Red Sox postseason?

If you had told me that I’d regret a postseason run without Garrett Richards back when he was in the starting rotation, I would’ve told you to go to the nearest hospital to get your head checked.

But his demotion to the bullpen turned out to be a glow-up. In 22 starts, he’d posted a 5.22 ERA and opponents were teeing off him to the tune of a .300/.371/.497 and a .868 OPS. In 18 relief appearances, he had a 3.42 ERA and lowered opposing lineups to .240/.319/.340 and a .659 OPS. That ERA was raised from 2.49 after an overworked Richards gave up three earned runs in his final relief appearance of the season.

Richards was originally on the ALDS roster but was replaced with Matt Barnes after one appearance due to injury. He made a brief scoreless appearance in Game 1, recording one out, but that was it for the 33-year-old righty.

The Red Sox signed Richards to a one-year deal for $10 million with a pricey club option for 2022. His brief ALDS appearance might be the end of his tenure in Title Town.

Manager Alex Cora #13 of the Boston Red Sox (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images)
Manager Alex Cora #13 of the Boston Red Sox (Photo by Omar Rawlings/Getty Images) /

What if Alex Cora hadn’t stuck with the same lineup throughout the ALCS?

This one’s hard, because the Sox didn’t have enough bench depth to make impactful lineup changes.

However, leaving Hunter Renfroe in the lineup for every game when he literally made postseason history in the worst way felt like shooting someone who was already dead: not productive, and would only lead to a bigger mess.

Over six ALCS games, Renfroe hit .063/.250/.125 with a .375 OPS; it feels irresponsible to even call that hitting. He managed one hit, and it was in Game 1. Going 1-for-16 in the series, he walked four times and struck out eight. He ground into more double plays than he had actual hits.

JD Martinez was also a problem throughout the postseason run. He hurt his ankle on the final day of the regular season and missed the Wild Card game and beginning of the ALDS as a result. Like most of his teammates, Martinez was hot early in the ALCS, with a pair of two-hit games in Game 2 and 3, but then went ice-cold, going 0-for-6 in Games 4-6 with three walks and six strikeouts. The Sox need more from the guy who inherited David Ortiz’s heavy postseason mantle. Heavy is the head that wears the crown.

Ultimately, knowing that the team needs more depth off the bench should serve as an offseason guide to build better for 2022. It’s not so much a ‘What if’ as a ‘What we know we need now.’

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