Red Sox: Astros’ latest injury update could seriously impact ALCS

Astros ace Lance McCullers Jr. may not pitch against Red Sox in ALCS

Lance McCullers Jr. won’t start the first two games of the ALCS, and the Boston Red Sox may not have to face him at all.

Houston’s star pitcher had been crucial to his team reaching the pennant round but was pulled from his Game 4 start in the ALDS due to right forearm tightness.

On Thursday, MLB insider Jon Heyman reported that while McCullers “should be fine in the long run,” he is “most likely” not going to be pitching in the ALCS.

Astros GM James Click kept mum about McCullers’ ALCS availability but did confirm the pitcher had an MRI:

Which Astros pitchers could the Red Sox face in the ALCS?

In the regular season, McCullers posted a 3.16 ERA and 1.220 WHIP over 28 starts. He set new career-highs in strikeouts (185) and innings pitched (162 1/3), though he also led MLB by issuing 76 walks.

However, McCullers has struggled against Boston throughout his career to the tune of a 5.40 ERA over 25 innings. In five games, Sox batters slashed .300/.381/.450 with a .831 OPS against the righty, with 12 doubles in 100 at-bats. McCullers has allowed 15 earned runs and issued 13 walks to Boston bats.

McCullers has faced the Red Sox four times in the postseason between the 2017 ALDS and 2018 ALCS, but never as a starter. In 2017, he allowed two earned runs in Boston’s only win, a 10-3 victory. Over three innings of work in three ALCS games the following year, he only allowed one earned run on two hits, but issued two walks as well.

Without McCullers, the Astros still have some solid pitching options: Luis Garcia, Zack Greinke, Framber Valdez, Jake Odorizzi, and Jose Urquidy. Neither Odorizzi nor Urquidy pitched in the ALDS.

Garcia’s first two years in the big leagues have amounted to a 3.27 ERA over 35 games – 29 starts – but the White Sox lit him up in Game 3 earlier this week. He couldn’t make it out of the third inning without allowed five earned runs on five hits, walking three, and only striking out three.

Greinke isn’t the Cy Young he once was, but he has 20 games of postseason experience under his belt, though none of them have been against Boston. He’s made one appearance in the postseason so far, a scoreless inning in which he allowed two hits.

Valdez had the best season of his career, posting a 3.14 ERA over 22 starts, pitching 134 2/3 innings, nearly double his previous career-high. However, like Garcia, Valdez got knocked around in the ALDS, getting tagged for four earned runs on seven hits in 4 1/3 innings when he started Game 2. He has made four career postseason starts daring back to 2020, and has allowed at least one earned run in each.

Urquidy has not pitched in the 2021 postseason so far, but appeared in four games last October; he allowed at least one earned run in each of the three starts and one relief appearance. Odorizzi’s sole postseason appearance came back in 2019 when he was with the Minnesota Twins; he started the Wild Card game and allowed two earned runs on five hits to the Yankees over five innings.

The Astros are currently favored to win the series and the World Series. But without McCullers, their path forward is no cakewalk.

Update on Lance McCullers Jr. in ALCS:

Astros manager Dusty Baker has announced that Framber Valdez will start Game 1 of the ALCS and Luis Garcia will start Game 2.

Update: Lance McCullers Jr. is not on the Astros’ ALCS roster

Lance McCullers Jr. is officially out for the entire ALCS. He’s not on the Astros’ roster, making him unable to pitch, regardless of health.