Red Sox: Projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players

Projecting Red Sox arbitration salaries for the 2022 season

MLB Trade Rumors has a prediction, and the Red Sox are part of it. This is regarding arbitration salaries, and the Sox have a list of nine players. A cursory exam is that they will likely sign the bulk of them.

Arbitration can be a contentious operation with lasting animosity by both parties. The usual settlement is a split the difference and move on.

Rafael Devers‘s arbitration projection is $11.1 MM and the highest figure among those in arbitration. Devers’ offensive numbers fall somewhere between flashy and spectacular.

In baseball, runs are the most important offensive statistic, and Devers is a machine at run production. A total of 101 runs were scored and 113 RBI. Tack on a 134 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR, Boston has a bargain if MLBTR is correct.

The discussion during the season is signing Devers long-term and avoiding another complicated Mookie Betts situation. The only item of negativity is Devers’ less-than-average defense. An item that becomes muted with three-run shots.

Next in line on the millionaire’s list is the bargain of 2021 in Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe was paid $3.1 MM, and the return was phenomenal. Again it is that run production that is 89 runs, 96 RBI, and 31 home runs. The translation is 114 wRC+ and 1.8 fWAR. Renfroe is pegged at $7.6 MM, and as with Devers, it could be a springboard to a more lengthy contract.

Nick Pivetta has come on strong in the playoffs and had his ups and downs during the regular season. The former Philly right-hander made 30 starts and tossed to a 4.53 ERA/4.28 FIP. If working quickly on the mound is a plus, then Pivetta is the Michelangelo of hurlers.

Pivetta earned $600,000 for his 2021 efforts and is projected to receive a hefty boost to $3.2 MM. Pivetta’s ability to plug in just about anywhere on the staff will be a bargain no-brainer unless he reverts to his Philadelphia form.

Next up on the projected $3.2 MM handout is another no-brainer and candidate for a longer-term deal. Alex Verdugo has been a plus on the field and is a new fan favorite.

Verdugo slashed .289/.351/.777 in 2021 and was close to league average in whiffs (15.9 K%) and walks (8.4%). Defensively, the metrics are the good (9.2 UZR/150) in right field, the bad (-4.3 UZR/150) in left field, and the ugly (-14.1 UZR/150) in center field.

Sandy Leon priced himself out of Boston, but Kevin Plawecki will not. The projected tag is $2 MM, and if Connor Wong was a bit more viable, then Eovaldi’s personal catcher may be on the market.

Plawecki has hit with the Red Sox with a .287 average in 64 games in 2021. Last season it was a surprising .341. Plawecki’s performance has resulted in some grumbling on social media about more playing time. I doubt the Red Sox will go that route unless Christian Vazquez falters.

Former number one draft pick (2013 -Giants) Christian Arroyo has been cursed. If there is an injury or illness available in 2021, the right-hand hitter grabbed it. Arroyo still chipped in with a 106 wRC+ and .262/.324/.769 slash and some pop with six home runs in 57 games.

Arroyo’s obvious problem is staying on the field. Will the Red Sox risk an arbitration kiss of a possible $1.1 MM? Does the sun rise and set? Arroyo may or may not be the second baseman next season (7.8 UZR/150), but he will be on the team.

Lefty Josh Taylor was one I thought was cooked after a wretched April (8.68 ERA), but he recovered, got more high leverage situations, and is in the closer mix for next season. Projected at $1.1 MM in arbitration, he would be an exceptional bargain.

Right-hander Ryan Brasier had a mountain of health issues during the season. Brasier tossed only 12 innings with a strange mix of 1.50 ERA/4.84 FIP. With pitching having a premium value, a possible $1.4 MM arbitration settlement is not staggering. Of course, Boston could cut Brasier loose and attempt to resign him. A risky proposition.

Then there is just $1 MM, and that is the possible price tag for Franchy Cordero. Cordero managed a 32 wRC+ which is 20 points lower than my wife’s cat. Failure follows Franchy around like a perpetual dark cloud.

The Red Sox should say “See Ya!” and then resign the Triple-A power machine and save a few beans. I watched Cordero in Worcester, and he certainly has power plus and has adapted to first base. There will be a market somewhere for the 27-year-old lefty.