This big change in the Red Sox Wild Card lineup could blow up in their faces

Is Alex Cora making a mistake with the Red Sox Wild Card lineup?

The Red Sox lineup for their first-ever Wild Card game is out, and it’s not what people expected.

In addition to the absence of JD Martinez, who sprained his ankle walking to the outfield in Game 162 because the National League has no DH, manager Alex Cora decided to shake things up with his batting order for the one-game stress test we’re about to endure.

The biggest change: Kyle Schwarber will bat leadoff, while Kiké Hernández hits second.

The Red Sox have tinkered with the leadoff spot in the lineup before, and it was a mistake

Right off the bat (sorry), I get Andrew Benintendi/Mookie Betts vibes. Ahead of the 2019 season, Cora announced that Benintendi and Betts would swap places at the top of the order. The presumption would be that since Betts got on base or homered so often, if Benintendi could get on base in the leadoff spot, Betts would drive in one or two runs following him.

The experiment was an unmitigated disaster; Benintendi hit .119/.229/.143 with a .372 OPS in 48 games as the first batter to hit. He managed exactly five hits, only one of them for extra bases. By comparison, Betts had hit .286/.351/.504 with a .855 OPS as the first batter in 131 games in 2018, including nine doubles, a triple, and five leadoff home runs. So, instead of a man on for Betts to send home to a quick 1-0 lead, the Red Sox essentially had an automatic out from Opening Day until the end of May, when Cora finally switched them back.

Of course, these are completely different players, but the overarching theme is Cora fixing things that aren’t broken to begin with.

Kiké Hernández and Kyle Schwarber both have great leadoff numbers this season

Furthermore, Hernández’s numbers as the first batter are strikingly similar to Betts: .284/.339/.541, a .880 OPS, eight doubles, a triple, and six leadoff home runs, including one off the Yankees’ Wild Card starter, Cole, earlier this season.

Schwarber’s numbers leading off first innings are enormous, but take them with a grain of salt, as he’s only been in that position in 27 games this year. He’s hitting .500/.519/1.500 with a 2.019 OPS, two doubles, and eight home runs.

How are the Red Sox numbers against Gerrit Cole?

In their careers, Schwarber has three postseason at-bats against Cole, and went 2-for-3 with a home run and three RBI. However, in 17 total regular-season career at-bats against the Yankees ace, Schwarbs is hitting .176/.263/.176 with a .440 OPS and six strikeouts.

Hernández has a lifetime .455/.571/.909 line against Cole in the regular season, with a 1.481 OPS, two doubles, a home run, three walks, and no strikeouts in 11 at-bats.

Both Hernández and Schwarber have a lot of postseason experience to draw from; the former played 58 high-stakes games with the Dodgers, while the latter had 24 postseason games with the Cubs. Only Schwarber has faced Cole in October, though.

Whether or not Cora’s switcheroo helps or hurts will be decided in a matter of hours, and I hope I’m wrong to be worried. But ultimately, the entire lineup will need to exercise discipline at the plate, drive up Cole’s pitch count, and actually hit with runners on.