Odds are against the Red Sox going to the World Series
Are the Red Sox advancing to the World Series? The steps are challenging, with the first barrier being a Wild Card game with the New York Yankees. Winner takes all in which the Yankees are the slight favorite on the early betting, according to WynnBET.
Baseball is up to their eyeballs in sports betting with alignments with lotteries and sports betting with gaming houses and online options. Maybe a review of Pete Rose is necessary? But I am wandering.
The World Series is the big prize, and for fans, bettors, and gambling houses, the Red Sox are a long shot. If they were a horse, think of Silky Sullivan, a nag that took 14 straight and had the hearts (and wallets) of the sport of kings enraptured. But Sullivan lost the big one – the Kentucky Derby.
For the Red Sox, the next task would be the defending American League Champions, the Tampa Bay Rays. An axiom of betting is never bet with your heart so that the smart money would flow to Tampa’s side of the board.
MLBTR has a fan poll regarding who will win. Boston finished dead last despite the advantageous placing of number one on the ballot. Boston’s figure is a disappointing 3.04%. The Giants and Dodgers are on the top rung of the odds later, which is no surprise considering their records. The fans tend to vote more emotionally, but it seems Boston is just an afterthought. Is it different elsewhere?
FanGraphs, the metrics jungle, gives odds all season long. Boston is now at a 8.2% odds to win the World Series. The percentages were on a steady decline during Part II of the 2021 season as the Red Sox deteriorated. But for a surprise, the current odds on FanGraphs favor Boston over New York and Tampa to win the World Series! They have the Dodgers with the best odds (16.4%) to take it all.
The WAR competitor to FanGraphs is Baseball-Reference. At BR, the Red Sox World Series odds jump to 3.8%, which is still a long shot of all long shots territory. I am sure both FG and BR have a mathematical formula on the process that would send this teetotaler to visit Captain Morgan.
Then there is the FiveThirtyEight site that has its roots firmly entrenched in baseball metrics before branching out. The bad news is the Red Sox have a 3% chance of going all the way.
Boston is not going far when your livelihood and possible life depend on making the correct call. The Red Sox on the various booking sites are last or close to it. There is a consensus that says Boston will be a quick kill in the playoffs. The books are not infallible, and odds have been beaten before.
Odds shift like the sands at a beach, only it is not the tide but how the teams perform and who bets what and with whom. A win against the Yankees and a quick start against the Rays, and that shift will happen as more emotional money flows in. Meanwhile, Boston could be like Silky Sullivan and only win and not lose their derby.