Red Sox: Projecting the pitching staff WC/ALDS playoff roster

A look at a possible Red Sox pitching roster for the playoffs

Now it is optimism time for Red Sox Nation, and that means playoffs. Let’s go full optimism (or provincialism), and the Red Sox advance into the American League Divisional Series, a five-game format. An actual cart before the horse moment.

The teams involved will have a 26-man roster, and with that comes decisions on just who stays and who sits. That roster also applies to the Wild Card. So my journey for wishful thinking, regional jingoism, and miracles can happen. Just what pitchers will the Red Sox have positioned on their roster? Who on the current roster should be excluded?

"In a typical season, any player who is on the 40-man roster or 60-day injured list as of 11:59 p.m. ET on Aug. 31 is eligible for the postseason. – MLB"

Decisions can be dependent upon the opposition, health, performance levels, metrics decisions, and management. With the short format, staff can be condensed. The schedule is the contributor, with the ALDS beginning on October 7th and potentially ending on October 13th. There are a few built-in off days for players to check investments, avoid media, and not go all Trevor Bauer.

The easy part is selecting who will be on the front lines, and that honor will go to the rotation stabilizers. Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, and Eduardo Rodríguez. With the potential for a giant scrum, the bottom (Pivetta and Rodríguez) could be the top opening a five-game series. The top being Eovaldi and Sale will follow.

Is the rotation a mess, or is it? Has September been kind to the starters? On FanGraphs, the rotation is just behind the White Sox with a 2.9 fWAR. The 3.99 ERA/3.33 FIP and 2.54 BB% are good, but what is excellent is a league’s best 3.64 SIERA.

The bullpen has the usual suspects that have trotted out during the season with various levels of success and failure. Garrett Whitlock has been the most solid, but the rookie sensation is dealing with a “minor” arm injury. Minor has a way of biting in the butt.

Closer is a work in progress, with Matt Barnes holding the job most of the season. Even great closers can have a disappointing playoff run, such as Craig Kimbrel collecting six of the most adventurous saves possible in 2018. If not Barnes, the next up would be of interest as manager Alex Cora is unsettled (maybe) at this point. To examine the bullpen options.

Lefty Josh Taylor, righties Adam Ottavino, Garrett Richards, Hirokazu Sawamura, and rookie Tanner Houck are solid selections, but Ottavino, I have lingering doubts. Houck, Richards, and Whitlock can all provide comfortable multiple innings. Taylor has been trustworthy but may not be ready. Unless Taylor has some health magic, he’ll sit it out.

What do you do with Martín Peréz? He failed in the rotation and is no great shakes wandering in from the ‘pen. If it were my choice and comes down to an additional left-hander, I would take Darwinzon Hernandez or Austin Davis. Peréz scares me. Hernandez over Davis for me, but after watching Hernandez’s walk-a-thon approach, I’ll flip that. And the Taylor situation could be a lifeline for Hernandez. Hernandez gets in via default.

If there is a potential battle of right-handers, it could be Ryan Brasier versus Hansel Robles. Both are similar in pitching styles, and neither would be expected to be exposed to a high leverage situation, but that seems to be changing. Both have earned Cora’s confidence lately, and that carries weight. Robles has been a de facto closer of late. Both could be part of the mix, or one could or none. I would go, Robles. I would also be tempted to replace Ottavino with either. Ottavino has been simply ugly for September/October with a 7.45 ERA.

The bullpen numbers are not as metrics upbeat dramatic as the rotation. The 0.4 fWAR is just behind the “vaunted” Tampa Bay Rays bullpen. The relief corps is 10-5 with seven saves. The 11th ranked ‘pen checks in with a 3.81 ERA/4.29 FIP.

The ALDS performances can be significant for a player advancing to the Championship Series and World Series roster. The pitching staff, as mentioned, can be slightly condensed and have an additional one or two position players added. I like the idea of a third catcher, a bit of defensive depth, or some speed, and pitching if history is an indicator pitch counts are tossed out.

For me, the final tally would have Brasier, Taylor, and Peréz all sitting out unless an injury surfaces. The Red Sox staff could be lights out or lit up based on how erratic the rotation and bullpen can be.

Stats through 10/01