The many ways the Red Sox can clinch a Wild Card spot in game 162
Buckle up. It’s the final day of the regular season and it’s going to be utter chaos! The Boston Red Sox enter the day holding the top Wild Card spot but they haven’t clinched anything yet. The New York Yankees own an identical record while the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners are lurking one game behind.
This season marks the first time in the Wild Card era with six divisions that we’ve seen one division with four 90+ win teams. The Tampa Bay Rays reached 100 wins last night and locked up the division title long ago. The Red Sox, Yankees and Blue Jays will all finish with at least 90 wins, as will the Mariners.
That sets us up for a wild finish to the appropriately named Wild Card race. Four teams remain in the battle for only two spots. It all boils down to today. Let’s break down the various outcomes for the Red Sox and what they need to do to earn a trip to the postseason.
How the Red Sox clinch the top Wild Card spot
This one is pretty simple. If the Red Sox win their regular season finale on the road against the Washington Nationals, they clinch the top Wild Card spot. That sets them up to host whichever team earns the second Wild Card spot at Fenway Park on Tuesday.
There is one scenario, however unlikely, where Boston can still clinch the top Wild Card despite a loss. Since the Red Sox currently hold the top spot based on a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Yankees, they will remain in that spot if all four contenders lose today.
Can you imagine? The Red Sox lose in Washington. An enraged fan base starts freaking out. Demands for Alex Cora’s head roar throughout the city. A mob gathers on Lansdowne Street. Within the hour, we learn the other three teams also lost and the Red Sox have backed themselves into the top Wild Card spot.
We obviously can’t count on that happening but hey, it could happen! I told you it’s going to be chaos.
The Red Sox could settle for being the second Wild Card
Win and get in, that’s the mentality the Red Sox need to take with them into this final regular season game. A loss in Washington doesn’t mean all hope is lost though.
If the Yankees win while the Red Sox lose, New York leaps ahead of Boston for the top spot. If Toronto and Seattle also lose, they remain a game behind the Red Sox. That would set up a Wild Card game in Yankee Stadium against the Red Sox on Tuesday.
A Red Sox loss combined with a win by the Blue Jays and/or Mariners is where things get messy.
Wild tiebreaker scenarios the Red Sox could find themselves in
Here’s the good news – Boston can’t be eliminated today. No matter what happens, there will be a game to be played next week. That doesn’t mean they have clinched anything yet though. A tiebreaker game might be necessary to get them to the Wild Card. Yes, a one-game playoff just to earn the opportunity for a one-game playoff.
If the Yankees and Blue Jays win while the Red Sox and Mariners lose, Boston would host Toronto for a game at Fenway Park on Monday. If that same scenario plays out only with a Seattle win and a Toronto loss, it would be the Mariners traveling to Boston on Monday.
A Red Sox loss combined with wins from all three of the other contenders sets up a three-way tiebreaker between Boston, Seattle and Toronto for the second Wild Card spot. Losses by both the Red Sox and Yankees plus a win by either the Blue Jays or the Mariners would also set up a three-team tiebreaker with both Wild Card spots at stake.
So what happens in a three-team tiebreaker? It depends on which teams are involved. Since the Red Sox own the better head-to-head record against all three of the other Wild Card contenders, they would host any Game No. 163 the includes them.
Three-way tie 1: SEA @ BOS in Game 163, 163 loser @ TOR in Game 164
Three-way tie 2: NYY @ BOS in Game 163, 163 loser @ SEA in Game 164
Three-way tie 3: TOR @ BOS in Game 163, 163 loser @ NYY in Game 164
Ready for even more madness? We could potentially see an epic FOUR-WAY tiebreaker if the Red Sox and Yankees both lose while the Blue Jays and Mainers both win.
In a four-way tiebreaker, Boston would host the Yankees in Game No. 162. Toronto would host the Mariners. The winners of each game will advance to the Wild Card game with home-field advantage going to the team with the better head-to-head record in the regular season, which would be the Red Sox if they advance.
The path to the postseason can get very messy if Boston loses their final regular season game but at least they control their own destiny. They can make this all irrelevant with a win. Considering how this season has been going, we can never assume that this team will do anything the easy way. Get ready for a wild afternoon!