Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi vs Gerrit Cole battle could determine Cy Young race

Another contender is also a Red Sox division rival

Toronto’s Robbie Ray remains in the mix with a 2.72 ERA that should allow him to comfortably coast to an ERA title. He owns strong strikeout and walk rates but gives up too many home runs. His 1.43 HR/9 rate is the sixth-highest among qualified AL starters.

If it weren’t for a curiously low .278 BABIP or his drastic improvement in walk rate, many of the solo shots Ray has given up would turn into crooked numbers in a hurry to inflate that ERA. This explains why his 3.41 FIP is so much higher than his ERA and his 4.3 fWAR places him a distant third in the league.

Ray has also failed to make it through five innings in two of his last three starts, both of which resulted in losses for a Blue Jays team fighting to reclaim a Wild Card spot. Fair or not, a strong finish matters to voters and these missteps that might cost his team a trip to the postseason will be held against Ray.

Jose Berrios, who was acquired by the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, is also having a great year with a 3.6 fWAR this season. That should earn him an honorable mention but it’s hard to imagine him getting votes over his more accomplished teammate. Chicago’s Dylan Cease (3.9 fWAR) and Lucas Giolito (3.6 fWAR) also merit consideration as dark horse candidates.

These pitchers should all appear on ballots but they aren’t the front-runners for the award.