Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi vs Gerrit Cole battle could determine Cy Young race
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees meet in a battle of aces
There’s a lot on the line at Fenway Park tonight. The Boston Red Sox host the New York Yankees to begin a series that could determine their Wild Card fates. Both clubs will send their aces to the mound for a battle that could sway voters for the AL Cy Young award.
Nathan Eovaldi enters the game leading AL pitchers with 5.5 WAR, per FanGraphs. Gerrit Cole trails slightly with 5.3 WAR. The outcome of tonight’s game could either expand upon Eovaldi’s lead or close the gap.
Not everyone has embraced WAR as an essential way of measuring value, especially when it comes to pitchers. A review of several other metrics still shows a tight race between these to starters.
Earned runs allowed is a primary factor in the minds of most evaluators and Cole has the edge there with a 3.03 ERA compared to Eovaldi’s 3.58 ERA. Eovaldi’s league-leading 2.72 FIP is significantly lower than his ERA though, giving him a slight advantage over Cole’s 2.76 FIP. Boston’s shaky defense hasn’t helped Eovaldi, who has pitched better than his ERA reflects.
Cole is an elite strikeout artist, leading the league with 12.28 K/9. Eovaldi is well behind but he’s still striking out over a batter per inning, ranking seventh among qualified AL starters with a 9.74 K/9. Eovaldi’s walk rate is the best in the league at 1.66 BB/9 and he’s second with a 0.73 HR/9.
Another contender is also a Red Sox division rival
Toronto’s Robbie Ray remains in the mix with a 2.72 ERA that should allow him to comfortably coast to an ERA title. He owns strong strikeout and walk rates but gives up too many home runs. His 1.43 HR/9 rate is the sixth-highest among qualified AL starters.
If it weren’t for a curiously low .278 BABIP or his drastic improvement in walk rate, many of the solo shots Ray has given up would turn into crooked numbers in a hurry to inflate that ERA. This explains why his 3.41 FIP is so much higher than his ERA and his 4.3 fWAR places him a distant third in the league.
Ray has also failed to make it through five innings in two of his last three starts, both of which resulted in losses for a Blue Jays team fighting to reclaim a Wild Card spot. Fair or not, a strong finish matters to voters and these missteps that might cost his team a trip to the postseason will be held against Ray.
Jose Berrios, who was acquired by the Blue Jays at the trade deadline, is also having a great year with a 3.6 fWAR this season. That should earn him an honorable mention but it’s hard to imagine him getting votes over his more accomplished teammate. Chicago’s Dylan Cease (3.9 fWAR) and Lucas Giolito (3.6 fWAR) also merit consideration as dark horse candidates.
These pitchers should all appear on ballots but they aren’t the front-runners for the award.
Red Sox have the edge in this matchup
Barring a collapse by either pitcher, this should be a two-man race between Eovaldi and Cole, which raises the stakes for Friday night’s head-to-head meeting.
Nasty Nate has faced the Yankees five times already this year and he’s been outstanding under the pressure of this intense rivalry. Eovaldi owns a 2.01 ERA with 34 strikeouts and only two walks in 31 1/3 innings against the Bronx Bombers this season. He’s also done his best work at home where he’s 6-3 with a 2.99 ERA.
Cole hasn’t found nearly as much success in this matchup, going 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox this season. He surrendered eight earned runs over 10 innings between his two starts at Fenway, taking the loss both times.
The task won’t be any easier for Cole this time as he returns to Boston to face a scorching hot Red Sox team riding a seven-game winning streak in which they have scored 6+ runs in each game. Cole was roughed up for seven earned runs in his last start against Cleveland. A pitcher of Cole’s caliber is capable of shutting down any lineup but the momentum is in Boston’s favor.
Wrapping up the Red Sox season
If voters haven’t made up their minds by the end of tonight’s game, there won’t be many more opportunities to sway their opinion. How the Red Sox and Yankees finish in the standings could go down to the wire but playoff positioning historically hasn’t mattered as much to voters in the Cy Young debate compared to the MVP race.
Cole is scheduled for one more start next week in a potentially pivotal meeting in Toronto against a tough Blue Jays lineup. If he falls short in Boston tonight, it won’t be easy for him to make up ground in the Cy Young race.
With the Red Sox moving to a four-man rotation, Eovaldi might get two more starts. His next would be against the lowly Baltimore Orioles. Boston will hopefully have the luxury of skipping Eovaldi in the regular season finale against the Washington Nationals. He’ll only make that start if the Red Sox absolutely need that game to clinch their postseason spot.
Time is running out for these pitchers to pad their resumes. A duel between two Cy Young contenders this late in the season with both teams vying for the Wild Card presents an opportunity for one of these pitchers to emerge as the front-runner. The outcome of tonight’s game could go a long way toward determining who brings home the hardware.
Next. Memories of Red Sox-Yankees duels. dark