Red Sox poised to benefit from Wild Card tiebreaker scenarios

The Boston Red Sox have an edge in the Wild Card tiebreakers

The AL East division has nearly been locked up by the Tampa Bay Rays, who own a comfortable 8.5 game lead with about two weeks remaining in the regular season. While crowning a division champion might be anticlimactic, the Wild Card spots will be determined in a heated race led by three other teams from this division. The battle for the two spots should go down to the wire and will potentially require tiebreakers to determine which teams have clinched a playoff spot. That would be just fine for the Boston Red Sox since they are sitting comfortably in the driver’s seat for these tiebreaker scenarios.

Boston enters the day with a 83-56 record, giving them a .561 winning percentage that falls a mere percentage point behind the 82-64 Toronto Blue Jays (.562). These division rivals currently own the two Wild Card spots with the New York Yankees (82-65) trailing by a half game. The Oakland A’s (79-67) and Seattle Mariners (78-68) are also lingering a few games behind.

The Red Sox will not finish with a losing record against any of these teams. Here’s how they have fared against the Wild Card competition this season:

Blue Jays: 10-9
Yankees: 10-6
Mariners: 4-3
Athletics: 3-3

Boston has won the season series with the Blue Jays and Mariners. They still have three games left to play against the Yankees but the Red Sox will still win the season series even if they get swept next weekend.

If the Red Sox finish the season tied with any of these teams for the second Wild Card spot, a one-game playoff will determine which club advances to the postseason. Boston would have home-field advantage over the Blue Jays, Yankees or Mariners based on their head-to-head record.

If two teams clinch the Wild Card spots with identical records, the head-to-head record determines home-field advantage for this one-game playoff game, giving Boston the advantage over those three teams.

The Red Sox split their season series with the A’s, which would lead us to the next set of tiebreakers if those teams were to finish even in the standings with a playoff spot or home-field advantage on the line. When the head-to-head records are tied, the higher winning percentage in intradivision games determines which team gets the advantage.

Boston is 37-30 against their AL East opponents while Oakland is 30-30 against the AL West. The Red Sox have nine games remaining against divisional opponents, six of which are against the lowly Baltimore Orioles. That should give them ample opportunity to pad their intradvisional record to expand on their comfortable lead.

All 16 of Oakland’s remaining games are against AL West teams. It’s technically possible for Oakland to match Boston’s intradivisional record even if both teams win all of their remaining games, although that’s highly unlikely to happen. The A’s have enough divisional games to close the gap if Boston doesn’t take care of business against the O’s and Yankees though.

Boston has the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the majors with their opponents combining for a .416 winning percentage. A soft schedule should allow the Red Sox to fend off the A’s since they have a three-game lead and if not, a seven-game lead in the tiebreaker scenario should be plenty. It’s a long-shot for Oakland, but they remain the only other Wild Card contender that Boston hasn’t officially clinched a tiebreaker over.

The Red Sox kick off their final homestand of the season with a weekend series against Baltimore. Boston is 44-29 at Fenway Park this season, giving them a .603 winning home winning percentage that stands as the best among the Wild Card contenders. They have been even more dominant at home since a slow start, going 34-18 (.654) at home since May 13.

Boston would be heading to the playoffs if the season ended today but they still have 14 more games on the schedule. One mini-slump this late in the season in the thick of a tight race could send them tumbling down in the standings. There’s a lot of work left to be done but when the competition is this close, it’s a relief to know that Boston has an edge with the tiebreakers.