Red Sox: Marcelo Mayer’s prospect ranking shows he was the right draft choice

First-round pick Marcelo Mayer is already an elite Red Sox prospect

It hasn’t been much more than a month since the Boston Red Sox selected high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer in the first round of the 2021 amateur draft and a case can already be made that he’s the best prospect in the organization’s farm system.

MLB Pipeline actually did make that case when they revealed the latest update of their top 100 prospects. Not only is Mayer the top Red Sox prospect on their list, they have him ranked as the No. 9 prospect in baseball.

That’s a lofty ranking for an 18-year-old whose only professional experience amounts to six games in the Florida Complex League. It goes to show how sky high the expectations are for the talented infielder.

Mayer’s smooth left-handed swing shows the ability to hit for contact with enough raw power to drive the ball. He has the tools to be a plus-hitter and an elite defensive shortstop. Many scouts considered Mayer to be the top prospect in his draft class at the plate and in the field, drawing comparisons to World Series MVP Corey Seager and three-time Gold Glove winner Brandon Crawford.

Mayer was the closest that this draft class had to a consensus top choice. It was a bit surprising when he wasn’t selected first overall and the Red Sox were ecstatic that he somehow fell into their laps with the No. 4 pick.

MLB Pipeline seems to agree that the Red Sox drafted the best player this year since they ranked him ahead of everyone else in this class. Henry Davis (No. 23), Jack Leiter (No. 12) and Jackson Jobe (No. 50) all made the top-100 cut but each of them trail Mayer despite being selected ahead of him in the draft.

The Red Sox farm system is also represented by Triston Casas (No. 18)  and Jarren Duran (No. 26). The former has skyrocketed up these rankings over the past year while the latter has already reached the big leagues.

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Other prospect ranking sources will vary on the order but most will view this trio as Boston’s best. Baseball America ranked Casas (No. 20) as the top Red Sox prospect, followed by Duran (No. 22) and Mayer (No. 32). Mayer is third among this group due to his inexperience leaving him much further away from contributing in the majors but he might have the highest ceiling. His addition to the organization is a significant reason for Boston jumping to 9th in Baseball America’s mid-season farm system rankings.

Prospect projections aren’t an exact science, especially when it comes to teenagers straight out of high school. A lot can go wrong between now and when they are major league ready and even highly touted prospects are at risk of becoming a bust. Mayer is almost too talented to fail though. Barring catastrophic injury or some cataclysmic confidence-shattering event, Mayer is going to develop into a great all-around player with superstar potential.

The 2020 season was miserable for Red Sox fans who were tortured by an under-performing, undermanned and under-financed ball club that sunk to the bottom of the AL East. It was hard to watch but at least it was only 60 games. If you told me that watching a last-place team through a 60-game pandemic-shortened season was all it would take to draft a player who immediately becomes one of the best prospects in baseball, I would do it again in a heartbeat.