Red Sox: Predicting when Chris Sale will make his 2021 season debut

Chris Sale will return to the Boston Red Sox rotation very soon

The wait is almost over. Following a lengthy recovery from the dreaded Tommy John surgery, Chris Sale is nearly ready to return to the Boston Red Sox.

Manager Alex Cora revealed to reporters that Sale’s next appearance will be this Saturday for Triple-A Worcester, which will “most likely” be his final minor league rehab start before he’s deemed ready for his triumphant return.

Sale tossed five innings in his most recent appearance in Worcester on Saturday, allowing one run on five hits. He struck out seven and walked one while throwing 81 pitches. His fastball hit 97 mph on the radar gun. While he backed off a bit on the velocity for most of his outing in favor of command, it’s good to know that high heat is still there if he needs it.

The next goal for Sale will be to approach the century mark with his pitch count, by which point he will show he’s ready for a full starter’s workload. The Red Sox have been taking a cautious approach with their ace and won’t rush him back to use him in an abbreviated outing. Based on how he’s been building up over his rehab assignment, Sale should be able to at least get close enough to that 100 pitch mark in his next start.

Potential dates for Chris Sale’s Red Sox season debut

If his final rehab appearance is on August 7, Sale could conceivably be ready to make his season debut five days later on Thursday, August 12 against the Tampa Bay Rays.

So that’s it, right? Go get your tickets for next Thursday because it’s going to be a Sale Day! Well, not so fast. While this is a reasonable projection for Sale’s debut, it’s far from official. The Red Sox will be giving Sale a full week of rest between his most recent appearance and his next one. If they choose to give the lefty at least an extra day before making the jump from Worcester to Boston, Sale would miss the pivotal series against the Rays entirely.

One extra day of rest would push Sale’s first start for the Red Sox this season to Friday, August 13 against the Baltimore Orioles. It’s an easier matchup which would give Sale a better chance of completing his return on a high note. It’s worth noting that the way the rotation currently lines up, that series opener with the O’s is slated to be started by Garrett Richards – the clear candidate to be replaced by Sale in the rotation.

If Sale’s first start opens the series with Baltimore, his second start would wrap up a three-game series against the Yankees in the Bronx on Wednesday, August 18. If the Red Sox hold him back for more than one extra day of rest, Sale could end up missing the series with the Rays and Yankees.

As long as his next outing is indeed his final rehab start, Sale will make his season debut for the Red Sox in front of the home crowd at Fenway Park. It remains to be seen who the opponent will be and how that lines up the rotation around him.

Ideally, Sale will face the Rays in his first start so he can be available again for the Yankees series. Those are the two most important series the Red Sox will play this month and getting their ace back could be the edge they need. Boston trails Tampa Bay by a game in the tightly contested AL East while New York is lurking only four games back in the loss column.

We won’t have an official update about Sale’s debut until he makes it through his rehab start on Saturday. Assuming he’s healthy with no lingering soreness to be concerned about, the Red Sox will get Sale back very soon. Boogeyman’s coming and Boston’s division rivals should be terrified.