Boston Red Sox Prospect Watch: It’s not always the top prospects

It’s not just the top prospects making waves for the Boston Red Sox.

We’re still very early into the season for the Boston Red Sox minor league teams, so overreacting can still be a major issue. That being said, we are getting into that part of the season where you can start looking at big numbers and thinking that they might just be legit.

This is great news for the Red Sox, as they have a number of prospects that aren’t exactly on the radar who have performed at an elite level so far this season.

In the Majors, there are really only two young “prospect” type players. Those two being Bobby Dalbec and Garrett Whitlock. Sure, Rafael Devers and Alex Verdugo are both either younger or the same age as those two. But Devers and Verdugo have quite a bit of MLB experience. Dalbec and Whitlock aren’t there yet. So we’ll only be focusing on them for the Majors portion.

Dalbec is hitting .209 and already has 54 strikeouts compared to nine walks in 149 plate appearances. He has had serious ups-and-downs too. When the right-handed hitter is hot, he’s very dangerous. But when he’s struggling, he’s been a hole in the lineup.

That being said, Dalbec has shown plenty of signs that he can put it all together and be a major bat in the lineup. He’s shown a great glove at first base and does have eight doubles, one triple, and five home runs. Meanwhile, he’s driven in 22 runs and scored 11 more (even stealing a base). Dalbec was the top prospect for a reason.

The New York Yankees have to be wondering if they should’ve let Garrett Whitlock go, right? Whitlock has appeared in 13 games for the Red Sox this season. In that time, he has thrown 24 1/3 innings. The right-handed pitcher has a 1.85 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, .222 BAA, one save, and 25 strikeouts over those innings. Lights-out, domination.

Red Sox Triple-A (Worcester)

One of the Red Sox top prospects, and probably the one fans are most excited for (as he could be called up at any time this year) is Jarren Duran. However we don’t really get to talk about the outfielder for a few weeks. It’s good news though. Duran is not hurt, but instead – he’s playing for the USA team. Because Duran’s seriously that good.

Even worse, Worcester has had a number of injuries to legit prospects already this year. That would include catcher/infielder Connor Wong, infielder Chad De La Guerra, and pitchers Eduard Bazardo and Tanner Houck. For those keeping track at home, that’s four prospects – three of whom are in the top-30 of the Red Sox organization. De La Guerra might not be on that list but he’s very intriguing and has tons of potential.

No need to fear though, Worcester has more than enough talent to keep this interesting.

Michael Chavis is back in Triple-A after a short stint in the Majors. He played pretty well in Boston but had a serious strikeout problem, swinging at way too many pitches outside of the strike zone. Hopefully that’s something he can correct in the minors, because there’s a lot to love about his game. Right now, Chavis is hitting just .161 with one double in Triple-A, but that’s in just 31 at-bats.

Jeter Downs is slashing .239/.333/.394 right now. The infielder has two doubles and three home runs, driving in seven runs and scoring eight more. Most impressively, he’s already 7-for-8 in stolen base attempts. Downs has always been a great base runner and it’s definitely part of his game that does not get mentioned enough.

Marcus Wilson is having a fantastic all-around season so far. The outfielder is slashing .254/.361/.493 with four doubles, two triples, and three home runs. He has 11 RBI and 11 runs scored, going 5-for-5 on stolen base attempts. The right-handed hitter is proving that he can do it all on offense, while giving you a fantastic glove in the outfield.

Josh Ockimey is hitting just .155 with three home runs at the moment. He is not walking at the same rate he has in the past (only eight so far despite over 70 in his past four seasons and over 80 in three of those). At the moment, he has just eight. However, Ockimey has shown major power and a good eye in the past. There’s no reason to believe the left-handed hitter can’t put it all together soon.

Jonathan Arauz is hitting .204 with three doubles, one home run, four RBI, seven runs scored, and one steal. This isn’t a concern though. Arauz is depth for the Majors. He’s proven he can contribute in Boston and he has a great glove.

Kyle Hart struggled in his start this week, giving up five runs on six hits and three walks over 3 1/3 innings. The left-handed pitcher still holds a decent enough 4.50 ERA though. This early in the year that’s fantastic considering he just had an implosion start. And if we’ve learned anything from Hart over the years it’s that he usually follows up a bad start with a strong one, so that number could dip back down.

Red Sox Double-A (Portland)

The Portland Sea Dogs are not immune to injury either. Triston Casas has missed all week, so he is still slashing .328/.400/.552. A legitimate superstar. At just 21, I honestly think he could be playing and producing well in the Majors right now.

Guys, is Johan Mieses the best power hitter since David Ortiz? This dude is wild right now. Hitting bombs left and right. The right-handed hitter has a .288/.374/.725 slash line with two doubles and 11 home runs. Eleven. He’s driven in 22 runs and scored 18 more. And it’s not even like he’s striking out a lot, with just 17 at the moment. Most impressively, Mieses has flashed some nice leather in the outfield.

Roldani Baldwin is a machine. It was only in eight games, but he hit .348 in 2019. Now this season, he’s slashing .340/.450/.520 with four doubles, one triple, and one home runs. The catcher/third baseman has driven in seven runs and scored 10 more. It’s almost like he’s taken offense to the Red Sox bringing in so many other catching prospects. He’s reminding them just how good he is.

More from Red Sox Prospects

• Predicting top Red Sox outfield prospect Ceddanne Rafaela’s timeline to the majors
• Predicting Red Sox top prospect Marcelo Mayer’s timeline to the majors
• Red Sox risk repeating rookie mistake with Eric Hosmer release
• Red Sox invited group of players you’ve probably never heard of to Spring Training
• Jeter Downs’ official departure will continue to haunt Red Sox

Speaking of those catching prospects, Ronaldo Hernandez had a strong week. He’s back up to .262 with four doubles and two home runs. Hernandez has only driven in three runs and scored five more, showing his run production could use some work. Meanwhile, he’s only drawn one walk. Hernandez has all the tools to be a great catcher though, so the numbers aren’t a concern at the moment. Especially considering the signs of life he has shown.

Jeisson Rosario has gotten hot. His batting average rose from .237 to .278 thanks to a fantastic week. Meanwhile, the outfielder has a .374 OBP with three doubles, having driven in 10 runs and scoring 10 more, stealing two bases. Rosario has great eye and good speed. Both perfect tools for a leadoff-type hitter.

Pedro Castellanos is back down to .241 but he does have three doubles and two home runs to go along with 12 RBI, 17 runs scored, and one steal. Castellanos has been up-and-down so far this year but he has proven in the past that he’s a very useful bat. Don’t worry about the 23-year-old, the average will rise steadily.

Ryan Fitzgerald’s really strong 2021 campaign continues. The infielder is rocking a .288/.360/.500 slash line with 11 doubles and two home runs. Fitzgerald has driven in 11 runs and scored eight more, while stealing one base. The left-handed hitter rarely gives away at-bats and can put solid contact on the ball often (why he has 11 doubles).

Grant Williams is in the middle of a breakout season. The second baseman is hitting .333 with four doubles at the moment. He has only driven in one run, but he has scored 13 and stolen one base. Williams came into the season with a career-average around .270. While that’s very solid, the massive numbers he’s putting up now might be the reason he climbs up the prospect ladder.

Josh Winckowski for Cy Young? Can we start that argument now? The 22-year-old has been superb with the Red Sox so far. He has thrown 27 innings so far, posting a 1.33 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and .152 BAA so far. The right-handed pitcher has 26 strikeouts and is making a case for Triple-A sooner, rather than later.

Kutter Crawford had a bad start last week, giving up five runs on three hits and two walks over 2 1/3 innings. However, he had a fantastic bounce-back start this week. The right-handed pitcher threw five innings, allowing just one run on five hits. Crawford now has a 4.11 ERA and .241 BAA, but a really strong 0.98 WHIP.

Denyi Reyes is down to a 3.12 ERA to go with a .234 BAA and a 1.04 WHIP. The left-handed pitcher has allowed just three walks compared to 15 strikeouts over 17 1/3 innings so far. Most importantly, Reyes made his first start of the year this week. He went five innings and allowed zero runs on just four hits and one walk.

Rio Gomez had a great week. The righty threw 4 2/3 innings over two games, allowing one run on four hits. He did walk three, but also struck out five. Gomez now has a 4.70 ERA in Double-A. His .311 BAA and 1.70 WHIP need work, but this was a very promising week.

Matthew Kent has thrown 13 innings so far this year. The left-handed pitcher has a 1.38 ERA, .222 BAA, and 0.85 WHIP in that time. Kent has been underrated in the Red Sox organization over the years. An off 2019 definitely didn’t do him any favors. However, it appears the 28-year-old is ready to prove just how good he is once again.

Red Sox Advanced-A (Greenville)

Tyler Esplin really does everything right. The outfielder is slashing .277/.419/.386 at the moment. He has six doubles and one home run, to go along with 13 RBI, 21 runs scored, and three steals in three attempts. The 21-year-old plays good defense and most impressively has walked (19) more times than he has struck out (18).

Tyreque Reed has a .292/.432/.662 slash line. The 23-year-old has three doubles and seven home runs already. He’s driven in an impressive 26 runs, while scoring 19 more. Reed has been phenomenal this season and has absolutely been a great find by the Red Sox. He’s already almost halfway to his career-high 18 homers.

Tyler Dearden is slashing .297/.432/.625. Are you seeing a pattern here? Very high OBPs. The 22-year-old has six doubles and five home runs with 17 RBI and 17 runs scored. Dearden struggled in 2019, but proved in 2018 that he can put up good numbers in a full season. It appears he’s taken a few steps forward and is ready to not only have the high average, but produce plenty of runs with it.

Kole Cottam rounds out the great slash lines that feature a .400 OBP. The catcher has a slash line of .275/.406/.431 with two doubles and two home runs. Cottam has driven in six runs and scored eight more. Boston has plenty of catching prospects and Cottam has definitely proven that he deserves just as good of a chance as any of them.

Cameron Cannon has a .286/.340/.495 slash line at the moment. The shortstop has seven doubles and four home runs. Meanwhile, he has 13 RBI and 17 runs scored – even stealing three bases. Cannon is nicely well-rounded offensive and has plenty of potential on defense.

Nick Sogard has been seeing his numbers climb nicely over the last few weeks. He is now up to a .279/.308/.574 slash line. It’s pretty wild to see the power numbers from someone who had a .313 slugging percentage in his last season. The switch-hitter already has four doubles, one triple, and four home runs on the year. He had just five doubles and no other extra-base hits in 2019. Sogard also has eight RBI and nine runs scored. Fantastic season so far.

Brandon Howlett’s average has dipped down to .274. That’s still really solid though and he has picked it up with the run production lately. The right-handed hitter has six doubles and one home run. He’s also driven in 11 runs and scored 11 more. Howlett had two runs scored and four RBI this week. That’s definitely a positive trend.

Brayan Bello is insane. It’s getting ridiculous at this point. The 22-year-old righty has a 2.11 ERA this year. He has made four starts and is 4-0. Bello doesn’t just have a lucky ERA though, he also has a .192 BAA and a 0.84 WHIP. He’s struck out 30 batters compared to just four walks in 21 1/3 innings. Elite prospect.

Chris Murphy had a strong bounce back start this week. The left-handed pitcher allowed two runs over four innings of work. He had a little bit of an issue with allowing men on (five hits and three walks) but did a great job of limiting the damage. Murph has a 4.70 ERA, .261 BAA, and 1.52 WHIP with 26 strikeouts over 23 innings pitched.

Jay Groome had a solid start last week and I mentioned that it could be the start of the upward trend for him. That appeared to be correct. The left-handed pitcher threw five innings allowing one run on just one hit (and one hit batter), while striking out four. He severely lowered his numbers to a 7.88 ERA, .266 BAA, and 1.69 WHIP. As mentioned last week, the numbers still aren’t good but they are improving heavily. Let’s see if he can keep the trend positive.

Alex Scherff had another productive week that saw his ERA drop. That was thanks to three innings pitched that saw him allow just one run. He has a 4.22 at the moment. Not amazing, but solid. His WHIP of 1.33 is also solid, but not great. However, the right-handed pitcher has a .108 BAA. He’s been unhittable, and that’s a massive positive.