Red Sox: Bobby Dalbec & Michael Chavis’ early careers mirror each other

The Red Sox manager has a decision to make on Bobby Dalbec

The Boston Red Sox made the smart move, the necessary move, and the obvious move in demoting Franchy Cordero. Undoubtedly there are some fans remaining who still cling to the ethos of promise. This is a simple roster housecleaning and next up should be Bobby Dalbec.

Dalbec has “promise” and that was demonstrated in the truncated 2020 season. Dalbec in 23 games had a spectacular 152 wRC+. The big generator was eight home runs and within his statistical line is the downfall of his career – 42.4 K%.

This season as the at-bats accumulate the obvious is stated in the metrics. A 73 wRC+ and a -0.4 fWAR. A player that I predicted along with Tanner Houck could wrestle for the American League Rookie of the Year. I was basing it on a small sample, potential, and admiration for moon shots off the right-hander’s bat.

What I chose to ignore is the most obvious – a career track record of poor contact generated by a too high frequency of whiffing. Even Dalbec’s 10.9 BB% of 2020 – a reason for optimism – has shrunk to 6.2%. A blistering spring training of seven home runs and a .311 batting average only reinforced my optimism. Where it falls apart for Dalbec is facing right-handers. Just .138 this season.

Dalbec will show shades of that prolific power-hitting just like Cordero would only far less for the departed Cordero. Manager Alex Cora has reiterated a degree of faith in Dalbec with a promise to get him some at-bats.

At-bats are earned. They are earned via hard work and showing the ability to create positive outcomes with a bat. That could be the simplicity of putting a ball in play or the majesty of a booming home run or gap line drive. At-bats are not part of a trust fund or inherited wealth from a retired player. At-bats for the Cordero’s and Dalbec’s are part of the “what have you done for me lately?”

For Red Sox fans both Dalbec and Cordero are frustrating, especially Dalbec. Dalbec is a tease. And that tease is not limited to fans but to media, scouts, evaluators, and management. That is why Cordero is with his third organization and why Wily Mo Pena stayed far too long anywhere.

The Red Sox roster has a stockpile of options with the most notable being Danny Santana. Santana was purchased on the cheap, has the requisite versatility, and has returned to action with a vengeance. He will get the at-bats at the expense of Dalbec.

Michael Chavis and Dalbec have mirrored each other regarding their careers. The hitting, the versatility, the strikeouts, the frustration, the noted inconsistency. For Chavis, it is now the shuttle along the Massachusetts Turnpike between Worcester and Boston.

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For Chavis, the 2021 season has been rather successful as he drifts between the two largest cities in New England. Chavis now has a 103 wRC+, but the 39.4 K% is still reflective of his – like Dalbec’s – swing and miss capabilities. The irony is Dalbec could be sent down with Chavis as his replacement.

Both players are approaching their prime baseball years and what you see may be what you get. That, however, is not a career killer. Teammate Hunter Renfroe has had a comfortable albeit pedestrian MLB career with a similar profile. For both Chavis and Dalbec the precious at-bats will not be there as long as Cora has other and possibly more successful options.

Both Dalbec and Chavis have value but they may not be in Boston. The Red Sox have some prospects of notoriety in Worcester who still have rough edges to be refined – especially Jeter Downs and to a lesser extent Jarren Duran. Massive Triston Casas may soon earn a promotion to Triple-A. The hounds are on the heels for Dalbec and Chavis and Chaim Bloom could go into trade mode.

The Red Sox may have Sophie’s Choice with the Dalbec/Chavis duo. Which one do you keep? A lineup prone to whiffs with both inserted is limiting production. Both have the promise of having the ability to make the lower part of the order less mind-numbing to watch. The best outcome would be both get their BABIP, WAR, BB%, etc. all in a metric comfort zone. A delightful, but not promising possibility.