Red Sox: Bullpen success may hinge on Adam Ottavino
By Rick McNair
The Red Sox bullpen could be solidified with a solid Adam Ottavino
The Boston Red Sox bullpen is still a construction site with a work in progress sign noting as much. Sifting through for a positive is president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom’s history as a bullpen contractor. While with the Tampa Bay Rays the bullpen appeared in a state of being fluid with names changing on a routine basis. The methodology was successful.
The Red Sox brass made the solid decision of placing Matt Barnes in the coveted closer role, but the rest of the bullpen is in an identity crisis. One factor that could take a leap in the direction of resolution is right-hander Adam Ottavino.
Ottavino has long been a gold standard for bridging competence. Ottavino’s track record has been one of holding the lead and turning the game over to the closer. In 2020 while with the Yankees, that was a disaster. A complete turnaround from a successful 2019. Ottavino and his $9 million became expendable.
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Boston in a rare move rescued their biggest rival by absorbing almost the entire salary. The Yankees also tossed in minor league prospect Frank German. New York now had some payroll flexibility – most notably avoiding luxury tax issues. Boston had either a solid bullpen piece or more money wasted. The early results are frustrating, especially Ottavino’s propensity for issuing walks. So in boxing, we have the tale of the tape and in baseball the tale of the metrics.
In 2019, Ottavino was one of the better bullpen pitchers in the American League. FanGraphs had Ottavino ranked 14th with a 1.3 fWAR. That was second on the Yankees staff behind Aroldis Chapman. Only Brandon Workman represented any Boston reliever ahead of Ottavino. Now for a comparison of 2019 to 2021.
In 2019, Ottavino had an 11.94 K% compared to 11.78 this season. Walks are a deadly pitching sin and Ottavino is racking them up at a 5.89 BB%, but in 2019 that was 5.43. Ground balls are a pitcher’s friend and in 2019 Ottavino posted a 39.7 GB% and this season it is 51.2%.
If you love Statcast, Ottavino had a 34.2 HARD% in 2019 and it is now just 20.5%. SIERA has gone from 4.08 to 3.88. Traditional ERA has jumped from 1.90 to 3.44, but FIP has gone the other direction from 3.44 to 2.82. Called plus Swinging Strike is a 33.0 CSW% for both seasons. Ottavino can provide the punch out when needed. Velocity is also up for Ottavino from 94 MPH to 95.2 MPH on his heater.
So doing a comparison, Ottavino is right in the same target range in both 2019 and 2021. Not bad speed for the 35-year-old righty. You dig into the count situation and nothing jumps out. Ottavino is certainly compromised by the pendulum of favorability when the count swings to the batter favor such as 2-0 or 2-1. That is a truism for virtually all pitchers. Again – nothing remarkable.
On Saturday night in Philadelphia, the hero Du Jour was mercurial lefty Darwinzon Hernandez. The power pitching lefty bagged two big whiffs before turning the ball over to Ottavino who tossed a clean eighth inning. Three up and three down doing the walk of shame after a K. Maybe the bullpen will not emulate the batting order south of the number five hitter?
The Boston bats have come out of their slumber in the bottom of the order. Bobby Dalbec and Hunter Renfroe are no longer a breather for a pitcher. They feed off one another and maybe the bullpen is next? Hernandez and Ottavino were a good example. That happens you could have a lockdown for the last three innings.
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Ottavino seems to appear at first glance a failure. All too often the memories are of an ill-fated series of free passes, especially to his first batter. But based on the mysteries of metrics the Ottavino of 2019 and 2021 are the same pitcher. If suddenly Ottavino reverts to 2020 form then Bloom will have some major patchwork to accomplish.