Boston Red Sox: Grading the team after their fast 2021 start
The overview of the Boston Red Sox is so far, so good
The Boston Red Sox have been competitive in the first seven weeks and have maintained a hold on first place and certainly giving the impression of playoff potential. As with all teams, there are weaknesses and that is where a farm system, solid scouting, and a few dollars in the cupboard can help.
The lineup produces as Boston is one of the best offensive teams in baseball. I see that as somewhat of an illusion. There are holes and the bottom four have weighed down the overall offense. Some of that may just be adjustment factors and some may not. There is no five-tool igniter on the offense.
You live and die on the diamond with pitching and so far the living has been good – very good. A pleasant surprise. Pitching is essentially defense and so is having the gloves to prevent runs. This is in my view, not a great defensive team. I do not see any Gold Glove Awards coming to Boston after the season.
Another issue is speed or just base running. There have been some startling successfully aggressive baserunning and all too often some bonehead mistakes.
What the Red Sox need to do is start to be far more productive at home. This is surprising and generally goes against Red Sox history when they have a winning record.
Red Sox catching remains a solid plus
The Red Sox catching duo of Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki has an assortment of interesting statistics. They have the highest batting average in the American League at .255. They have also mastered the art of stealing a base with a perfect record of four in four attempts. The best in the AL.
The duo has also produced just two home runs out of the catching position. The good news is they have produced runs, leading the AL backstops in runs with 21 and have accounted for a comfortable 16 RBI. Not so comfortable is an 85 wRC+.
Plawecki has been mired in an inability to cut down runners who have succeeded 11 times in 12 attempts. Defensively, they have managed a quite respectable 5.5 UZR/150. In the ever-exciting category of pitch framing Vazquez ranks ninth.
The results noted best is the current status of the pitching on the team. Certainly an improvement over the disaster of 2020. Just how important a contribution rests on those with the “tools of ignorance?” I’d certainly be willing to give the catchers their share of kudos.
GRADE B
The Red Sox Infield has Bogaerts, Devers and little else
Best to take the highlights first. Xander Bogaerts is an MVP candidate. A solid defensive player with an almost guaranteed 30 home runs and 100 RBI. Toss in leadership for extra bonus points. Right now Bogaerts is at a 1.7 fWAR and ranked the best in the AL.
Rafael Devers is a Statcast regular with distance, barrels, and exit velocity. Strip away all that and you have some noted run production. Home runs, doubles, RBI, and suddenly walks. Devers isn’t the worst defensive third baseman in the AL but he is close and the season is still young.
Now the low-lights.
Second base remains an issue for the Red Sox and probably will until the next ice age. What surprised me at a second glance is they are ranked sixth in the AL with a 0.8 fWAR. Marwin Gonzalez had taken most of the playing time with Christian Arroyo on the IL. Offensively and defensively, Arroyo has outperformed Gonzalez and has a nice 101 wRC+. Keep an eye on Jeter Downs. Arroyo keeps it up you should have a problem solved.
First base is a wreck and that is Bobby Dalbec. He is derailed. A miserable 33.3 K%. Just two home runs and a 54 wRC+. The Michael Chavis option will not give any oomph to this position. Mitch Moreland, you are missed for your glove and timely hitting.
Grade B-
This is not your 2018 Red Sox outfield
Gone is the threesome that were high-end contributors and now the picket line has one solid player – Alex Verdugo. He’s a Trot Nixon who can hit lefties or a Mike Greenwell who can play defense. A solid hitter and entertaining player.
Hunter Renfroe has shown a sign of life recently and that could well have saved his job. The right-hand hitter certainly has some pop to his bat. Renfroe can also play some solid defense, has excellent defensive instincts, and a very good arm.
Enrique Hernández signed a two-year deal and is a solid player, but not spectacular with the glove or bat. A 99 wRC+ and 0.5 fWAR are well into the OK category. Mookie Betts spoiled us offensively and Jackie Bradley Jr. did so defensively. I suspect Jarren Duran will be looking for an apartment in Boston by the end of May.
People make mistakes in personal relationships, finances, health choices, and a variety of other impacting issues. Chaim Bloom also makes mistakes and when Franchy Cordero’s name is on the lineup card it is there to see.
Grade C
The Red Sox have the best DH in baseball
At least there will be no J.D. Martinez opt-out discussion for the offseason. Martinez is back in expected form and the Red Sox have the best DH in the baseball business. Martinez is not only a solid power hitter but a solid batsman who flirts each season with a .300+ average. A far cry from the .213 of 2020.
This season, Martinez will inevitably finish in the top three in home runs and RBI. On the metrics front, his 182 wRC+ should also hover around that number throughout 2021. Martinez could duplicate his first season in Boston when the right-hander slash .330/.402/.629 and led the AL with 130 RBI and smacked 43 home runs.
Martinez’s hitting has seen him take to the glove when the DH rule is scuttled when playing in the National League. Martinez is no gazelle in the outfield but when you hit like he does the occasional mental lapse is an acceptable exchange.
Right now the big change in the Red Sox offense from 2020 is Martinez. You can’t pitch around him with Bogaerts and Devers in the wings. Both are comparable RBI machines. No day-to-day DH by committee with Boston.
GRADE A
The Red Sox rotation may get an ace by All-Star time
What a difference a year makes. Nick Pivetta is apparently the real deal and Eduardo Rodríguez is back. Two solid starts and a nice 10-1 record. Going by WAR, righty Nathan Eovaldi with a 1.6 fWAR. Eovaldi is a real cheapskate to hitters giving up no dingers in 45 innings. Eovaldi has also made all eight assigned starts.
Martín Pérez is the pitcher I love to hate on, but Pérez is a gamer. He is what he is and has been his entire career. A Pérez start and win is like finding a $20 bill in your pockets you didn’t think you had.
Garrett Richards has turned it around after a pair of crash and burn starts in 2021. Richards still tops the rotation in Hard-Hit with a 46.6%. Richards also tops the rotation in a negative way with a 4.54 ERA and 4.54 xERA – a nice match.
Pivetta will have the one attribute I give him a huge plus for – quickness. Pivetta gets the ball and is ready to pitch and so far in 2021, it has been quite impressive. He also is just behind Eovaldi (no surprise) in the velocity category. Pivetta is on the negative leaderboard with a 4.98 SIERA and 14.7 BB%.
Rodríguez is not an ACE. That is a healthy Chris Sale. What E-Rod happens to be is a solid number two starter. I love the 4.4 BB%. Throw strikes! Let your defense do the work. Rodríguez is a delight to watch with changing speed. Even Pérez has more velocity.
GRADE B+
Red Sox have two standouts leading the ‘pen
The Boston bullpen is ranked behind the Yankees with a 1.7 fWAR that is certainly skewered by Matt Barnes. Barnes is perfect in saves and will give you high heat or a knee-buckling “Uncle Charlie” curveball. The free agent to be will get a pile of money.
Josh Taylor (11.3%), Darwinzon Hernandez (18.6%), Adam Ottavino (16.2%), and Austin Brice (11.1%). That is all BB%! Walks just kill, especially leadoff walks which is now the specialty of each. Best on the relief corps? Garrett Whitlock at 3%.
Whitlock has been the surprise so far on the staff. A steal from the Yankees via Rule 5 makes it even more delicious. A bullpen second best 90.9 LOB%. Whitlock does it with a fastball and killer change that have a 13 MPH difference.
Next to Barnes, the top heater belongs to Hirokazu Sawamura. Sawamura has a 97.2 LOB% and that stat is generally muted by just what the conditions are when you come into the game. A 42.5 Hard Hit% is not enticing for anyone unless they are a hitter.
Itinerant righty Phillips Valdez is proving 2020 was no fluke. Since I am in a loop on hard-hit percent Valdez has a team-low 17.1%. I am more comfortable seeing Valdez enter a game than Ottavino.
Matt Andriese is as advertised A bullpen version of Pivetta. A solid veteran who can dice out multiple innings or even get a start. After Barnes and Whitlock this crew slides down appreciably.
GRADE B-
Red Sox management has done the job on and off the field
To me manager Alex Cora will always be ethically challenged, but that does not take away from the job he has done so far in 2021. This is not a great team but is a very good one. Cora has masterfully managed a roster that certainly has many moveable parts. The improvement in pitching is a plus and Cora does mix and match well with both position players and pitchers.
Pitching coach Dave Bush is certainly having some quite respectable results with his pitchers. Jason Varitek is now a game coordinator and undoubtedly has a positive impact since he works with both Bush and hitting instructor Tim Hyers. Third base coach Carlos Febles has done a decent job with stop signs. No “this guys gotta go” on social media. Tom Goodwin at first has mastered the art of an MLB arse pat when a player reaches first.
Chaim Bloom is having a far more productive 2021 than 2020. In the previous season, everything turned to muck as the Red Sox had a turnstile approach to their roster. Seems as soon as a player – invariably a pitcher – was released elsewhere Boston signed him, tossed him into the fire, and got burned.
Cora shakes up his lineup to end losing streak. dark. Next
This year Bloom is getting his share of attaboys – and rightfully so – for the early success. The farm system is also rising out of the swamp with a few names of promise surfacing. And some of those names are the result of sharp deals.
GRADE A