The Red Sox need to make changes at the top of their lineup
Kike Hernandez made a strong first impression during spring training to get fans excited about the new Boston Red Sox leadoff hitter. Unfortunately, the production hasn’t carried over into the regular season.
Hernandez enters the day batting .230 with a .671 OPS. We’re nearly a month into the season so the small sample excuse is starting to wear thin. His numbers are nearly identical to what he produced in 48 games with the Los Angeles Dodgers last year and 2019 was only a slight improvement when he slashed .237/.304/.411 in 130 games. There’s little evidence from his recent track record to suggest the results will dramatically improve.
The primary goal of a leadoff hitter is to get on base to set the table for the rest of the lineup. Hernandez owns a .271 OBP that ranks ninth on the team. It’s the 15th-lowest OBP among qualified American League hitters. By virtue of being at the top of the order, Hernandez leads the team with 100 at-bats despite being the weakest hitter among the regular starters.
His slump has mostly gone overlooked because the Red Sox offense has been a juggernaut, ranking near the top of the league in most offensive categories in spite of their struggling leadoff hitter. Boston ranks third in the majors with a .261 batting average, fourth with a .325 OBP, and fifth with 123 runs scored. The Red Sox lead their division and they are tied for the league’s best record at 16-10. As they say, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Except the offense has been sputtering a bit of late. The Red Sox scored only one run on three hits in Thursday’s loss to the Texas Rangers. They swept the Mets in New York but scored a total of only three runs in the two-game series. Maybe the lineup is broken.
Boston needs a spark to jump start this lineup and it starts by dropping Hernandez down in the order. He’s still a valuable member of this team for his defense at second base and in the outfield. This isn’t an argument for benching Hernandez. It’s about putting a more productive bat in a prime spot in the order.
While Alex Verdugo was hesitant to embrace the leadoff spot last season, he thrived in the role when the Red Sox lacked alternative options. He’s been one of the team’s best hitters with a .314/.371/.523 slash line. His OBP is 100 points higher than Hernandez’s this season!
Sliding Hernandez down to the bottom of the order bumps up everyone else. Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez and Rafael Devers each move up to slot behind Verdugo, putting the best four hitters in the top four spots. All four rank in the top-20 in the league in OBP.
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Devers is second on the team with six home runs and 20 RBI. His .928 OPS ranks 12th in the AL. Why is he batting fifth? Martinez leads the team in those categories. He’s tied for the league-lead in homers, second in RBI and fourth in OPS yet he typically is placed in the cleanup spot where he isn’t guaranteed a plate appearance in the first inning.
Over time, batting higher in the order will lead to more plate appearances. The Red Sox should aim to maximize the plate appearances for their best bats. There’s no reason why Hernandez should get to hit more often than anyone else in this lineup.
Dropping Hernandez down in the order could take some pressure off to help him climb out of this slump. He’s adjusted his approach at the plate to adapt to this role and while it paid dividends in training camp, it’s not working anymore.
This isn’t a player who has always thrived in the leadoff role who happens to be going through a rough patch. Hernandez has spent significantly more time in the bottom three spots in the order compared to the top spot. He’s started 461 times in his career and began the game as the leadoff hitter in only 80 of them. This is still a relatively new role for Hernandez and he’s struggling to adjust to it.
The move doesn’t necessarily need to be permanent. The Red Sox don’t need to pull the plug on the experiment of converting Hernandez into a leadoff hitter but they at least need to take a break from it. Alex Cora needs to shake up his lineup to snap them out of the funk they’ve been in for the last few days. A new leadoff hitter could be the spark they need and it could be what Hernandez needs to get back on track.