Red Sox rookie Bobby Dalbec’s Statcast data exceeds his production
Raise your hand if you predicted that Boston Red Sox first baseman Bobby Dalbec would collect his first career triple before tallying his first home run of the season. Nobody, right?
Dalbec crushed a hanging curve that dropped over the head of the center fielder and bounced around in the triangle for a triple that drove in a run during the fourth inning of Tuesday’s win over the Toronto Blue Jays. The ball traveled 406 feet, enough to leave many ballparks but not Fenway.
That leaves the rookie still in search of his first homer this year, a surprising outcome from a hitter who collected eight home runs in only 23 games last season, including six in his first 10 career games.
Dalbec is off to a slow start with a .244 average and .684 OPS that are well below what he produced in the exciting glimpse we had from him last year. While the results haven’t been there, the Statcast data shows he’s swinging the bat very well.
According to Baseball Savant, Dalbec leads the majors with a 67.9 SwSp% this season. Sweet spot percentage is defined as a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees. Getting the sweet spot of the bat on the ball means the hitter is making solid contact.
Dalbec ranks seventh in the majors and fifth in the American League in the percentage of batted balls that have been barreled. His 21.4 Brls/BBE% leads the Red Sox, narrowly edging Rafael Devers (20.5%).
Highest % of batted balls that have been barreled (AL):
— J.P. Long (@SoxNotes) April 21, 2021
1. Shohei Ohtani – 25.6
T2. Mike Trout/Byron Buxton – 25.0
4. Nelson Cruz – 23.7
5. BOBBY DALBEC – 21.4
6. Aaron Judge – 20.51
7. RAFAEL DEVERS – 20.45
8. Franmil Reyes – 18.4
T9. J.D. MARTINEZ/Bo Bichette – 16.0
(Min. 25)
A barrel is a batted ball with an exit velocity of 98+ mph struck with a launch angle between 26-30 degrees, with the range of launch angle expanding with every uptick in exit velocity. The two factors combine for a recipe that typically leads to home runs.
Dalbec’s average batted ball travels 216 feet, which ranks sixth in the majors. Of the 23 major league hitters with an average distance of 200+ feet, Dalbec is one of only three without a home run. Eric Sogard and Nick Senzel join him on that list but they’ve combined for only one barrel this season.
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It’s baffling that Dalbec rates among the elite in sweet spot percentage, barrels and average distance but hasn’t hit the ball out of the yard yet. He’s hitting the ball hard and hitting it well, just not to the right spots.
Batting average might always be an issue for Dalbec since he strikes out so much. His 34.7 K% is the 18th-highest in the majors and 10th in the AL, although it’s an improvement over last year’s 42.4% rate.
When he does make contact though, he’s making solid contact with that sweep spot on the bat. Dalbec doesn’t have the home run production to show for it yet but the Statcast data predicts that will change. Perhaps when the weather warms up the ball will travel those extra few feet that it needs to clear the fence.
We know that Dalbec possesses impressive raw power. He’s swinging the bat well so the homers are bound to come soon and when they do, they will come in bunches.