Red Sox way too early trade deadline predictions to upgrade rotation
A stronger rotation is needed for Red Sox to make a deep playoff push
The Boston Red Sox have shown that they are not bowing down this season, sporting a 16-11 spring training record that came with excitement. Players such as Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran have created a buzz heard throughout all of Red Sox Nation, giving fans a sense of excitement not seen since Mookie was traded.
This team has potential, to say the least. I am not entirely sure what makes me say this, but this team reminds me of the 2013 championship team a lot. Not a lot of expectations with underwhelming players, but scrappy in the best way. In my opinion, the distance this team can go will be fully determined by July 31, the MLB trade deadline.
At this point in the season, the team will expose who they truly are, and in that case what they will need to stretch their season out all the longer. If the team can stay afloat come July, a trade to further the season will surely happen. If not, the Red Sox will find themselves in a similar situation to the latter half of last season.
I project the team will remain competitive until the deadline, warranting Chaim Bloom to make a trade to boost the rotation and put the team that much further ahead. I have been an open critique of the Nathan Eovaldi contract since day one, as I am of the Garrett Richards signing. Yes, Eovaldi held up great in the 2018 World Series, but will he do it again? Can Richards find the strike zone? I do not think so.
Bloom will need to make a move for another pitcher to boost this rotation if he believes they can contend, so let’s look at who’s out there and a realistic target under Bloom.
Carlos Rodon is Red Sox CBO Chaim Bloom material
Yes, Carlos Rodon has not panned out as expected during his tenure with Chicago. Year after year the league has been expecting the Rodon breakout season, but now the southpaw is on the cusp of being kicked out of the White Sox rotation. Four straight seasons of daunting injuries have taken the starter out of mainstream discussion and absolutely ruined his trade value.
After that type of introduction you may be wondering why even bother with Rodon then? For starters, he’s cheap. We know Bloom, he’s not going to go for the biggest fish in the pond unless it is served to him on a silver platter. He is a diamond in the ruff general manager, someone who may still see value in Rodon.
Although a high risk option, I would personally say Rodon is still high reward. While healthy, Rodon has shown glimpses of being a good MLB pitcher. His strikeout rates even in injury seasons have been elite, and while healthy he has shown he can go the whole nine innings. Although his ERA has consistently been around 4.00, do not forget that Rodon is on the right side of 30 and has never really had a full healthy season since his debut. His superb spring training definitely helps his case as well.
Finally, look at Chicago’s rotation. They are riding with Giolito, Keuchel, Lynn, Cease, Lopez and the potential introduction of Kopech. That rotation is stacked, especially with Cease primed for a breakout season. It simply does not look like they will have room to fit Rodon, making him all the more available come the deadline. On a cheap, expiring contract, Rodon could fill a pivotal role in Boston’s rotation that could help the team make it further into October than without him.
Red Sox should check on availability of José Berrios
José Berrios is a household name across mainstream MLB discussions. Berrios, like Rodon, has been deemed a future darling for numerous seasons, yet has never fully met expectations. His five seasons in the big leagues have seen a low 3.68 ERA, but his ability to remain consistent from season start to end has simply not been there.
Do not be fooled, though. When Berrios is in his groove, he matches up with some of the best in the league. He has a nasty slider when it is on, as well as the pedigree of a top prospect to put some juice behind his name.
I look at Berrios this way: his biggest flaw is his durability and consistency, but his biggest bonus is his age. Berrios is 26 years old, he is a young pitcher who was thrown in the spotlight too early with expectations way too high for a prospect who produced an ERA over 8.00 in his debut season.
There are very clear problems surrounding both Berrios’ availability and the competition to obtain him this season. Primarily, we have yet to get a feel on how much Minnesota likes Berrios. He is homegrown and on a cheap (yet expiring) contract. The only way Minnesota will part ways is if A) They fall out of contention before the deadline or B) They are unwilling to pay him what should be expected to be a pretty big deal this offseason.
Other problems present themselves should one of these previously mentioned conditions be met. These problems lay in the fact that should he become available, he will be the Belle of the Ball. Many teams will go after him, and his asking price will not be as cheap as say Rodon’s. If a good scenario can pan out, though, keep an eye on Bloom with Berrios.
Red Sox could poach a late bloomer from Oakland
Now, this is not a dream list at all, as we have seen with picks such as Rodon. However, trade targets are usually on close to expiring contracts, with sellers typically being small market teams that fall out of contention. Do not get me wrong, Oakland was a very good team last year and can do the same again this season. This is very dependent on numerous hit or miss players though, who could result in a losing season in Oakland.
Enter Chris Bassit’s expiring contract. Bassit was a late bloomer with relatively little success outside of the past coupe of seasons. He is not the answer for the future like a couple of the younger guys available, but the chances of Oakland resigning a 32-year-old pitcher who on many teams is a middle of the rotation starter is unlikely.
Bassit threw for an ERA of 2.20 last season and has a six-pitch tool set. He is a pitcher that, should his success carry forward into this season, could play a pivotal role for Boston in the fall. His lack of playoff experience is disheartening, but his potential upside is worth a trade that likely would not cost Boston much come the deadline.
Red Sox could strike if Nationals fall
Now this is a highly unlikely, absolute dream case scenario. We all know Max Scherzer as one of the game’s best, spending a near decade in the spotlight of MLB stardom. After bringing home a World Series in 2019, we can all be pretty confident in the fact that should he post similar numbers to last year, Washington will still be obliged to offer a sentimental contract (similar to Eovaldi’s case, minus of course the fact that we’re talking about Scherzer).
However, baseball is a business, and the path to the World Series in the National League seems closed to any team other than San Diego or Los Angeles for many years to come. No matter who the player is, there is still a chance that a team in this circumstance will not re-sign a seemingly declining 37-year-old pitcher on an expiring deal.
This would take a lot of scenarios falling perfectly into place for a move of this nature to happen though. First, the Red Sox would need to perform beyond what is expected of the team this season. They would need to prove that they are close to a World Series birth, a team one player away, which is something I do not foresee.
It would also take the Nationals performing well below expectations, leaving them little to no choice than to trade Scherzer and at least get something in return for him.
Finally, it would involve a highly uncharacteristic move from Chaim Bloom, taking on a large contract for a star player (resulting in a relatively high return as well for Washington). Crazier things have happened in baseball folks, however this should not be taken as anything more than a dream at this moment.
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As a lifelong Red Sox fan, do not get me wrong when I say that I currently hate what is being offered as a starting rotation. It is littered with major injuries, inconsistent pitching, and too many ERAs in the fours. If the Red Sox want a chance to contend in October, a rotation upgrade is still beyond necessary.