Red Sox Opening Day: Predicting Boston's 2021 starting rotation

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Sep 23, 2020; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; A general view of Fenway Park before the Boston Red Sox play the Baltimore Orioles. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports /

Red Sox Opening Day is right around the corner

Red Sox Nation we are just a little over a day away from Opening Day at Fenway Park and things couldn’t be getting any hotter. As the team begins to make their way back to Boston tonight we need to look ahead to Thursday afternoon as well as the regular season. Today I’m going to be putting my focus on the starting rotation and who I think we’ll see every fifth day.

Now, I’ll be honest and admit that I won’t be delivering any Earth-shattering names here as it seems pretty set but the order and some possible wild card entries are still in flux. We knew going into this past offseason that Chaim Bloom and his front office team were going to put an emphasis on pitching and they did exactly that. They were able to beef up both the starting depth and the relief corps in an effort to correct the issues of both 2019 and 2020.

We saw new faces like Matt Andriese, Adam Ottavino, Garrett Whitlock, and Garrett Richards all impress in their Red Sox spring debuts. All while familiar faces such as Eduardo Rodriguez, Martin Perez, Nathan Eovaldi, and Matt Barnes showed the quality that we’ve become accustomed to seeing from them.

Again, today is all about the starting rotation, one that has seen some serious turnover these last few years, and where I think the chips will fall for 2021. With that all said, let’s get started!

FT. MYERS, FL – MARCH 5: Eduardo Rodriguez #57 of the Boston Red Sox delivers during the second inning of a Grapefruit League game against the Tampa Bay Rays on March 5, 2021 at jetBlue Park at Fenway South in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /

Red Sox LHP: Eduardo Rodriguez

Without a shadow of a doubt, Eduardo Rodriguez will once again be the ace of this Red Sox staff. Now, I know what you’re probably saying. “Brendan, don’t you read the news?” Let me tell you, friends, I sure do. I’m aware of Eduardo’s current arm issues and that he’s no longer going to be the Opening Day starter. I also saw the report today that he’ll most likely be starting the season on the IL, but that doesn’t change my stance on Eddie Aces.

After missing the entire 2020 season he stormed back into spring training in great shape and with some of his best stuff. Through his last start, he posted a 3-0/2.63/13.2/0.951 line with a 15/2 K/BB ratio. However, his last start saw him getting dinged up pretty good and he’d exit the game early to head to the bullpen. He’s since played catch and thrown more from the mound but the team is being very careful with his return.

Considering the hell he went through with COVID and myocarditis this past year I’m not surprised that the Red Sox are taking their time with bringing him back. Bloom was optimistic that this would be a minor hurdle for the lefty but they were still going to make sure to not rush him back to the mound. For the second year in a row, Eduardo has seen his Opening Day start slip through his fingers but this time he’ll be able to still do his part in 2021.

When he does return, he’ll likely assume his spot in the rotation as the top dog and the leader of the staff. As for now though, it’s all about rest and relaxation to make sure he can make it through the regular season without seeing the IL again.

FORT MYERS, FLORIDA – MARCH 14: Nathan Eovaldi #17 of the Boston Red Sox delivers a pitch against the Minnesota Twins during the first inning of a Grapefruit League spring training game at Hammond Stadium on March 14, 2021 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images) /

Red Sox RHP: Nathan Eovaldi

Once again, Nathan Eovaldi will be stepping up in the rotation to hold down the fort for Eddie Rodriguez. The soon-to-be 10-year veteran is in a similar spot as he was in 2020 as he’ll be bumped up from the second spot in the rotation to the first. Once Rodriguez is cleared to return though I see him settling back in as the second arm in the arsenal for Alex Cora.

Eovaldi has made his career on his triple-digit fastball and it’ll once again be his calling card for 2020. He’ll be on the mound for the Red Sox for Opening Day when the Orioles come to Fenway Park. Evo is entering the third year of his current contract that will see him become a free agent after the 2022 season. This will be one of the biggest years for him as he missed plenty of 2019 due to injury but was one of the only reliable starters for Ron Roenicke’s side last season.

His spring has been a bit rough, to the tune of a 1-0 record through 15.0 innings pitched. I know that doesn’t sound too bad but his 6.60 ERA would like to have a word with you. Add in his 1.600 WHIP and 12.6 H/9 and this wasn’t the best time Eovaldi has spent in Fort Myers. However, he did finish the spring with a solid 7.8 K/9 and 13/3 K/BB ratio.

He’s the definition of a veteran and a workhorse that will do whatever Cora asks of him. If the game is out of reach early he’ll gladly eat up the innings to save the bullpen. Hell, he’ll even work out of that bullpen if called upon. Having to step up and take the mantle of the first man up is something that we know he can handle and has proven to be reliable at. While I really think we’ll see him excel pitching behind Rodriguez, it’ll be fun to see him take the mound Thursday afternoon.

Mar 9, 2021; Port Charlotte, Florida, USA; Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) pitches in the first inning during spring training at Charlotte Sports Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports /

Red Sox RHP: Nick Pivetta

This is where my rotation might skew away from some others that have been predicted out there. If you follow me on here then you know I have a big love for Martin Perez and probably thought I’d have him in this spot, but I threw you a curveball. I have been beyond impressed with Nick Pivetta during his time with the Red Sox. We got to see him have a few starts in 2020 and he’s been pretty solid this spring training as well.

Pivetta came to Boston at last year’s trade deadline in a deal with the Phillies that also saw pitching prospect Connor Seabold come to the Sox in exchange for Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree. Based on how 2020 ended and what we know as of now, I think the Red Sox definitely won that trade. I have Pivetta in the three-hole as a bit of a change of pace from what batters will see with Eduardo and Nate. Eddie is going to eat em up with that fastball/changeup one-two while Evo will blow them away with pure gas.

Now, Pivetta will not be hitting the radar gun like the guy in the previous slide but his combination of pitches will keep hitters guessing and could very well allow him to have a resurgence in his career. The story with the righty has always been his potential, yuck I know, but never being able to put the puzzle together. During his short time with Boston and working with pitching coach Dave Bush may have him heading down the right road.

The right-hander totaled a 2-0 record with a 1.80 in 10 IP for the Sox in 2020. He showed confidence and technique that I think made Chaim smile from ear to ear as he knew he got the quality arm he was shooting for. He’ll be a good swing-man to get the rotation to the back half and can be that guy that either keeps a streak going or ends a cold spell if necessary.

FT. MYERS, FL – MARCH 2: Martin Perez #54 of the Boston Red Sox delivers during the first inning of a Grapefruit League game against the Tampa Bay Rays on March 2, 2021 at jetBlue Park at Fenway South in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /

Red Sox LHP: Martin Perez

Here we go baby, it’s Perez Day! That’s right my friends, NOW, it’s time to talk about the man that should’ve been the 2020 Cy Young winner, Martin Perez. Alright, that’s about as wild as I’m going to get but I will be giving some praise to the energetic lefty here. Things got a bit dicey there for a minute when he was more than clear that he wanted to return to the Red Sox and play out the rest of his days in Boston and the phone wasn’t ringing.

Then, it happened. The news broke that the two sides had come to terms on a deal that will see him with the Sox for 2021 with a team option for 2022. If he can do something similar to what he did in 2020, then I can see that option getting picked up. Then again, I thought that very thing heading into 2021 just for Perez and Boston to work out a deal that was more team friendly. The southpaw has been a massive boost to the morale at Fenway Park and was a non-stop bright spot last season.

Even if he didn’t have his best stuff in 2020 he would make sure to go late enough into the game to help out the bullpen. When things didn’t go his way he would take full responsibility and when he was on top of his game he’d still give credit to those around him. The ultimate team player. As the fourth man in the rotation, he’ll have the responsibility to keep the hot streak cooking and put a stop to the bleeding of a losing skid.

Perez Day was one of the few things to look forward to last season and I’m thrilled that he’s back with this team. He may not be an ace or a guy that can throw 100 mph, but he makes up for that with his positivity and energy in the clubhouse. A big fan favorite will once again get his chance to help this team get back to October in 2021 and having him in the four-hole is the perfect spot for him.

FORT MYERS, FLORIDA – MARCH 12: Garrett Richards #43 of the Boston Red Sox delivers a pitch against the Tampa Bay Rays in a spring training game at JetBlue Park at Fenway South on March 12, 2021 in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images) /

Red Sox RHP: Garrett Richards

A new face for the Red Sox this season, Garrett Richards was a trademark Chaim Bloom “low-risk/high-reward,” signing. Richards hasn’t pitched a full season since 2015 but has shown that he still has something in the tank that makes him a worthwhile signing. As the probable fifth man in the rotation, his job is to swing things back over to Eovaldi and eventually E-Rod. Not to mention, Richards has what may be the best mustache in the game today, surely it’ll get plenty of love from Dennis Eckersley.

I don’t have massive hopes for Richards but I do think that he can be a dark horse underdog story for the Red Sox. His spring wasn’t the greatest, 2-1/5.93/13.2/1.610, and the righty admits that he wasn’t as hot in Fort Myers. It all comes down to mechanics for Richards and he knows it, going as far as pointing it out and making it his focus. I think the more time he spends with Dave Bush the better his results will be. Having a regular spot in the starting rotation won’t hurt his efforts either.

Injuries have played a massive role in Richards’ career in the recent past but now that he’s fully healthy, it’s time to get back to what he once was. His last full season, 2015, saw him go 15-12 with a 3.65 ERA and toss 207.1 innings. One thing that we need to also look at is that while his time on the mound may have decreased over the years he’s seen career bests in K/9 in 2018 (10.3) and 2019 (11.4).

He may not go deep into games this year but he is more than capable of being effective in those outings. Whether he goes four innings or six, he has the ability to get it done.

FT. MYERS, FL – FEBRUARY 21: Chris Sale #41 of the Boston Red Sox reacts during a spring training team workout on February 21, 2021 at jetBlue Park at Fenway South in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Billie Weiss/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images) /

Red Sox Wild Card Starter

This is the part that may be the most exciting section of this whole thing. I have two wild card starters in mind that I think all of Red Sox Nation can get behind. The first for me is Chris Sale. The return of The Condor is all dependent on whether or not Boston has any chance at October baseball. It’s been made pretty clear by the organization that they won’t be rushing Sale back any time soon and if they’re well out of contention, I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Sale is working his way back from Tommy John Surgery and with the wear and tear on his body, I wouldn’t think twice about holding him back for 2021 if the season is lost. Things have been progressing well for the southpaw with the nasty slider but it’s still smart to take their time if they want him strong for the remainder of his contract. On the other side of the coin, if the Red Sox are fighting for a Wild Card spot or are somehow already in the postseason, they’ll need Sale to go deep into October.

Red Sox Opening Day: Predicting Boston’s 2021 starting rotation