Boston Red Sox: 3 bold predictions for the 2021 season
Boldly predicting performances for three key Red Sox players in 2021
Opening Day is just around the corner and excitement around the league is building to a frenzy. Teams will play their final spring training games on either Monday or Tuesday and then prepare for real MLB action on Thursday. From there we’re off to the races with a full 162-game slate ahead of us. After a shortened season in 2020, and a very disappointing one at that for the Boston Red Sox, we’re all looking forward to a fresh start.
The dismal 2020 season for the Red Sox left a bad taste in all of our mouths. They were so bad last year there is really only room for improvement. How much they improve remains to be seen, but I’ve taken the liberty of making some predictions for a couple players as we head into the new season.
These aren’t your average, everyday, the sun will rise in the east and set in the west predictions. These are bigger, badder, bolder predictions. These predictions aren’t for the feint of heart. Read on at your own risk:
Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez finishes top-10 for AL MVP
While it’s no secret that the Red Sox offense took a step back in 2020, J.D. Martinez took a giant leap backwards. He flat out stunk. After earning himself not one, but two silver slugger awards in 2018 and finishing 4th in AL MVP voting, he had a similarly strong 2019 season.
2020, on the other hand, was a very different story for the 3-time All Star. Whether it was the new manager, the loss of the ability to use the video room during games to evaluate his swing, or just the shortened season not allowing him to find his groove, Martinez was not his usual self last year. After hitting over .300 in every season since 2016, his batting average fell to just .213 and his OPS fell 259 points from the prior season.
I believe Martinez will bounce back in a big way in 2021. One reason is that MLB is restoring the ability for players to use video to review their at-bats in game. Speaking to reporters last month about his use of video review Martinez remarked “Like I’ve said a million times, it’s part of my routine, and it’s something that kind of just got taken away from me. I’m excited that this year we’re going to have it back in a sense, some kind of video where we can look at our swings.”
It makes sense that taking away one of the key tools of the top swing scientist in the game would have a negative affect on his output. If you hired a carpenter to build you a house, but told him he couldn’t use a tape measure and would instead have to just operate on instinct, your odds of getting a livable house are pretty slim. It doesn’t mean he’s a bad carpenter, he just had his best tool to check himself and prevent mistakes taken away from him. Now that Martinez has his full tool belt again, he can get back to business as usual.
I expect Martinez to produce at the levels he did in his first two season with Boston that saw him finish 4th and 21st in AL MVP voting. If all goes well, another top-10 finish is in the cards.
Red Sox infielder Bobby Dalbec Wins AL Rookie of the Year
In a season devoid of highlights for the Red Sox, Bobby Dalbec burst onto the scene in 2020 as a late season call-up. He hit a home run in his debut game in August, and would go on to homer in five straight games in September. He appeared in a total of 23 games and ended the season with .263/.359/.600 slash line.
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Dalbec picked right up where he left off this spring. He’s leading the team (min. 2 AB) in slugging percentage and has hit 7 home runs in 18 spring training games. Dalbec is launching the ball out of the park at a rate of one home run for every 7.2 plate appearances. For comparison, in Barry Bonds’ record setting 73 home run season in 2001, he had an average of every 9.1 plate appearances between every round-tripper.
According to DraftKings, Dalbec (+1500) has the seventh best odds to take home the AL Rookie Crown. He ranks behind two pairs of division rivals Randy Arozarena (+350) and Wander Franco (+1000) from the Rays and Ryan Mountcastle (+1200) and Adley Rutschman (+1200) on the Orioles. Also ahead of Dalbec are Jarred Kelenic (+650) and Andrew Vaughn (+1250), the Mariners’ and White Sox’ top prospects, respectively.
Dalbec will have some stiff competition for the hardware from the highly touted prospects listed above, but he has the tools to be top dog among top dogs. Like many power hitters, Dalbec swings big and he misses big, too. He recorded the highest Whiff % or, swinging strikes per swing in the majors least season (min. 50 PA), but also ranked 2nd in Barrel %, which is essentially hitting the baseball with the ideal combination of exit velocity and launch angle, or in layman’s terms, hitting the ball real good.
His key to taking home the award will be the maintain the power he displayed at the big league level last season, while improving his discipline and contact rate at the plate.
Red Sox outfielder Franchy Cordero records a 30/30 season
Franchy Cordero’s combination of speed and power could see him become the first 30 home run/30 stolen base player for the Red Sox since Mookie Betts in 2018.
Cordero has a similar hitting profile to Dalbec. His bat has a lot of pop, but he’s liable to strike out often. In 2018 when he played in 40 MLB games (his most in a single season to date) he ranked 9th for highest Hard Hit % and 10th for highest strikeout %.
Cordero possess another element to his game the Dalbec does not: speed. In the same 2018 season, Cordero ranked 21st in sprint speed in the majors (min. 150 PA). In Triple-A the year prior, Cordero stole 15 bases in 93 games and back in 2015 in A-ball he stole 22 in 126 games.
The main blocker to Cordero accomplishing this feat will be playing time. Fangraphs Depth Chart projections has Cordero playing just 89 games, while hammering 15 homers and swiping 9 bags. That puts him on a 162 game pace of 27 HR and 16 SB. While still short of a 30/30 season, the path is there for Cordero.
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If he can remain healthy, and play his way into becoming the everyday starter, Cordero possesses the tools to become a special player. While 30/30 in his first season with Boston may be a long shot, he certainly has the potential to produce.