Possible Red Sox breakout candidates for the 2021 season
Possible Red Sox surprise players for 2021
Who will be the Boston Red Sox breakout performer for 2021? Just what is a breakout? Breaking out from mediocrity? An unexpected surprise like discovering $20 in your pants pocket? A player who brings his game to the next level such as Carl Yastrzemski in 1967? A rookie who suddenly discovers he can really play this game? Or a player signed that saves a season such as Koji Uehara in 2013?
In a bygone era, the Red Sox had a Tenth Player Award or as some would state an “unsung hero.” The award has been on hiatus for several seasons but examining some of the names for the official and unofficial winners show that the criteria mentioned above apply. The winners have an eclectic mix that includes Mo Vaughn to Mike Timlin. Or superstar season to gritty veteran going further than expected.
The Red Sox roster for 2021 certainly will have a mix of players with the potential of providing the statistical attributes that could be termed unexpected, surprising, or stepping it up to the next level. A few of my choices.
Will the Red Sox have a superstar at third base?
In the introduction, I mentioned Yastrzemski in 1967 and Rafael Devers is quite capable of ringing it up offensively in 2021. Devers’ offense in 2020 was rather pedestrian but the 24-year-old lefty still had a 109 wRC+. The 2019 season that Devers posted spoiled me in the expectations department.
In 2019, Devers led the American League in doubles (54) and Total Bases (359). The run producing totals were magnificent with 129 scored and 115 RBI. Toss in 32 home runs and a 5.9 fWAR. Even Devers’ fielding improved the last half of that season.
This year, manager Alex Cora is back and Devers has – like Yaz in the 1966 offseason – been dedicated to a strict physical and nutritional regime. Cora and Devers apparently have a motivational relationship. This kid can hit. The Statcast numbers are excellent. Now is the time to duplicate 2019 with some added numbers. Even lefties give him minimal difficulties hitting a solid career .265.
The Red Sox will hit. This has the potential of being a great hitting lineup especially with an anticipated J.D. Martinez waking up from a year of video exile. Devers key will be a reduction in his O-Swing% (Outside Zone) and SwStr% (Swinging Strike %). Just a few percent can translate to superior run production.
Devers’ big issue is what it has always been – defense. He is usually among the bottom, if not the bottom, in advanced metrics and traditional statistics. The good news is Devers is an industrious worker regarding his defense and a big play on defense does not carry over to a sulking at-bat.
A possible Red Sox Rookie of the Year
Bobby Dalbec will either be the American League Rookie of The Year or be in Worcester in June. With Dalbec, the number that sticks out is 42.4 K%. Over a full season that would make Chris Davis and Mark Reynolds appear like Joe Sewell who whiffed about once every 20 games. The K issue has dogged the 26-year-old his entire career and undoubtedly will continue.
In today’s game, the walk of shame is not as devastating as in the past. With Dalbec, it has to be minimized since he did have a .394 BABIP in 23 games. Dalbec is certainly not an all-or-nothing hitter despite the astronomical strike-out totals. The 10.9 BB% was one of the most favorable on the team, so the eye is certainly judicious enough.
The calling card for Dalbec is the long ball and they can really be long. In 2020, he slammed eight in just 92 plate appearances. This spring, Dalbec has continued to crank them out. A prodigious right-handed power bat at Fenway Park for 81 games.
Dalbec has the inside track as the starting first baseman for 2021. The small defensive sample in 2020 (175.1 innings) produced a -1.9 UZR/150. Dalbec is tall, agile – since he can play third – and with a reasonably strong arm. Defense is no concern for me nor should it be for Red Sox Nation.
The various projects have Dalbec hitting in the 25+ home run range. A good, but not a great number. For Dalbec to be considered the breakout that number will have to be elevated and I think it will be. I have no idea why I just like Dalbec as a hitter. I admire contact and detest strikeouts. I hope Dalbec has really flipped me on that concept.
A Red Sox free-agent steal
When discussing strikeouts and Dalbec, I arrive at my next possible choice with outfielder Hunter Renfroe. Renfroe’s 2020 season was one in which you may select a negative adjective and would be understating his season. A 77 wRC+, 26.6 K% and .156 batting average. Why Tampa Bay played Renfroe is his one specific talent – the home run. Eight in 139 plate appearances, but not enough overall talent to be retained.
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Boston is paying Renfroe $3.1 million for 2021. A risky venture considering Renfroe is a career .228 hitter. The enticement (again) is his unique talent at providing souvenirs to those enjoying the game in the outfield stands. With the Padres from 2017-2019, Renfroe hit 85 dingers. Maybe Chaim Bloom was present in August when Renfroe put two out of Fenway Park?
Renfroe hits lefties (.258) at a better pace than right-handers (.216). No surprise for a free-swinging right-hand hitter. Based on that and the Red Sox stockpile of versatility, Renfroe could be in a Jonny Gomes situation. When you think Gomes, you think pinch-hit home run and Renfroe has five in his career along with a sturdy .293 average in just 47 plate appearances. Clutch pinch-hits can establish a career.
Renfroe may be assigned defensively to the critical right field position at Fenway Park. Metrics-wise what jumps out is 2019 when Renfroe was with the Friars. A 21.7 UZR/150 and 12 defensive runs saved in 504.2 innings. Reports are Renfroe is a solid defensive player with an excellent arm.
To rise to prominence in this discussion Renfroe – like Dalbec – need to improve his contact. At 29-years-old and five MLB seasons what you see is what you get, but occasionally a player will get hot or lucky for an entire season. With arbitration looming a quality season will be potentially rewarding.
A Red Sox comeback after a miserable 2020 season
What a difference a year makes for 25-year-old Michael Chavis. A right-hand power hitter with an emphasis on power, Chavis put on a remarkable display as a rookie in 2019. He became an exit velocity specialist with – of course – some orbital home runs. The downside was (surprise) a 33.2 K%. If Chavis was not injured he could have led the AL in strikeouts since he had 127 in just 95 games.
What kept Chavis employed is 18 home runs. Anything less than 400’ was granted a “cheapo” status. The next issue for Chavis that was a plus was his adaptation to playing second base. Chavis can play second, first, third, and in 2020 dabble in the outfield. And that brings us to 2020. A -0.7 fWAR and a pitiful 65 wRC+.
To get in the picture for breakout status, Chavis needs a return to 2019 standards. So far in spring training, Chavis is back in long ball form. More contact means more home run gravy and a higher average. With Chavis, the leash will be very tight. Cora has multiple replacements available if Chavis slumps or sits on the bench. If Chavis powers up he’ll be tough to keep out.
From a personal perspective in 2019, he reminded me of Harmon Killebrew in stature and power.
The Red Sox gain is the Phillies loss
The trade with Philadelphia brought right-hander Nick Pivetta to Boston may go down in Red Sox history as a great one. That is today’s touch of hyperbole. Pivetta was once a high-profile prospect for the Phillies who envisioned the now 28-year-old right-hander as a top of the rotation starter.
The reason Pivetta is in Boston is explained in one word – failure. Pivetta was a failure as a starter and operating out of the bullpen. The talent was there as still is. A mid-90s fastball, a slider, a curve, and an occasional change. The pitches were the puzzle pieces but they never quite fit correctly in that puzzle known as the game.
Pivetta surfaced for two starts in 2020 with the Red Sox. For those two starts, He demonstrated why the Phillies were extraordinary patient waiting for results. This spring, Pivetta has earned the fifth starter slot and it will be a tenuous position to be in. Tanner Houck was sent packing as a roster move and not to collect rust. Failure by Pivetta and he will likely be sequestered to the bullpen or cut loose.
Next. NESN adding fan favorites for 2021 season. dark
For Pivetta to establish himself as a breakout contender the path is simple – do what he did for two starts in 2020. The physical stuff is there, the opportunity is there, and I will assume the mental toughness. Pivetta performs well which makes the pressure on Chris Sale’s return a bit less and ditto on wearing out the bullpen. I’m putting Pivetta down for 13 wins.