Red Sox: Five questions we need answers for during 2021 spring training
Key questions to explore as the Red Sox begin spring training
Pitchers and catchers report to Fort Myers later this week, signaling the official start of spring training. The Boston Red Sox addressed many needs during a busy offseason but there are several lingering questions hanging over this club that could determine which direction this season is heading. Training camp is where we begin to get some answers.
Camp was interrupted by the pandemic last year, sending players into quarantine for months before rushing them through an abbreviated summer camp to prepare for the shortened season. The unusual circumstances presented a challenge for many players who struggled to catch up.
Clearly, there were other factors leading to the Red Sox finishing last in their division with the fourth-worst record in baseball but the unprecedented conditions didn’t help and certainly attributed to the regression of certain players.
We aren’t quite out of the COVID-19 woods yet but the expectation is that players will return to their relatively normal routines this spring. That bodes well for those aiming for a bounce-back season but we still have concerns about this roster that we’ll be watching intently this spring.
How have Red Sox prospects progressed?
The Red Sox have invited several of their top prospects to training camp this year. Triston Casas, Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran are among the notable players who undoubtedly will begin the season in the minor leagues but will get an opportunity to mingle with big league players for at least part of spring training.
Training camp will be pivotal for these young players as the team evaluates where they are in their development. Last year’s cancelled minor league season prevented prospects from climbing the organizational ladder. While some were able to sharpen their skills at the team’s alternate site in Pawtucket, it’s not the same experience as getting regular playing time in actual games. Grapefruit League action may only be exhibition contests but for many prospects, this will be the first real competition they’ve faced since the end of the 2019 minor league season.
Casas is arguably the top prospect in the Red Sox farm system but the 21-year-old has never advanced beyond a brief stint in High-A ball. He probably would have worked his way up to Double-A Portland if there was a season last year. Was he able to develop enough at the alternate site to start at that level this season or does he need more time at the lower levels?
Downs and Duran are a bit more experienced, having reached Double-A in 2019. If they are deemed ready for a step up to Triple-A then they could be knocking on the door to their major league debuts by mid-season. A slow start in camp could send them back to Double-A, potentially delaying their journey to Boston until September, if not 2022.
The spring schedule has been trimmed down to 29 games this year. With the priority leaning toward preparing those expected to make the Opening Day roster, there will be fewer opportunities for prospects to shine. They need to make the most out of the chances they are given since it will be the first opportunity to evaluate if they made any progress during the lost 2020 season or if their development has stalled.
How’s the conditioning of Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez?
Eduardo Rodriguez had a breakout season in 2019, winning 19 games and posting a 3.81 ERA to finish sixth on the Cy Young ballot. He emerged as the leader of the rotation and even managed to handle the workload of an ace for the first time in his career, making 34 starts while tossing 203 1/3 innings.
It’s hard to imagine E-Rod approaching those career-highs after sitting out last season while recovering from myocarditis, a serious heart condition resulting from his battle with COVID-19.
The Red Sox will be tempted to lean on Rodriguez, especially early in the season while they await the return of Chris Sale. The coaching staff has to be careful to monitor E-Rod’s workload though. We can’t assume that he can go from zero to 200+ innings, especially since he’s only reached 138+ innings once in his career.
We can’t underestimate the toll that his health problems had on his body. Rodriguez wasn’t even medically cleared to walk on a treadmill until September. He claims to be 100 percent healthy but that doesn’t mean his conditioning has returned. Rodriguez was forced to avoid any strenuous exercise for moths. How much has he been able to ramp up activity since then? Is he going to have to work his way back into shape during spring training?
How many innings his arm can handle is a concern to monitor but his overall fitness level needs to be taken into account. Perhaps he’s had sufficient time to get back into playing shape but if he shows up to camp looking like Pablo Sandoval, we might have a problem.
What is the Red Sox outfield alignment?
Boston’s outfield has undergone a drastic overhaul. The Killer B’s that seemed destined to grow together as one of the best outfield trios in franchise history have each left town. While there’s still some talent patrolling the outfield at Fenway, there are some questions about how they fit together.
The departure of free agent Jackie Bradley Jr. has left a gaping hole in center field and it’s a bit puzzling that the Red Sox didn’t do more to address the position. Alex Verdugo is the team’s best option by default, although it’s a shame that they are forced to move him there after he admirably handled Fenway’s notoriously challenging right field dimensions last season.
Verdugo should be a capable center fielder but he’s nowhere near Bradley Jr.’s level. Boston was expected to downgrade defensively by letting the former Gold Glove winner get away but now they are also downgrading in right field by moving Verdugo.
New additions Hunter Renfroe and Franchy Cordero are expected to start in the corner outfield spots but which of them is tasked with handling the spacious right field and who needs to learn how to play the ball off the Green Monster in left remains to be seen. They both have experience at all three outfield spots but based on where they have appeared most, it will probably be Renfroe in right with Cordero in left.
The wide platoon splits of the right-handed Renfroe and lefty Cordero suggest they should be sharing a position rather than plugging both into the same lineup. Unfortunately, Boston’s lack of outfield depth doesn’t give them that luxury.
Kike Hernandez could see some time in the outfield to make that platoon possible but the Red Sox are counting on him primarily at second base. They would need Christian Arroyo, Michael Chavis or Jonathan Arauz to step up as a viable everyday starter in order for that to work. Seeing how those players have progressed and if they see time at second base will be something to watch this spring since it could have a domino effect that alters the outfield alignment.
The free-agent signing of Marwin Gonzalez isn’t official yet but he could be a wild card once he enters the mix. Gonzalez can be used almost anywhere on the field. While he’s likely to bounce around to several different positions, his presence in the lineup would potentially alter the outfield alignment regardless of which spot he’s playing that day.
Who is the Red Sox closer?
The Red Sox haven’t had a trustworthy option to close out the ninth inning since Brandon Workman was shipped to Philadelphia at the trade deadline last season. Matt Barnes moved into the closer role for the rare occasions where the Red Sox had a save situation to protect but we have sufficient evidence over the years that the veteran right-hander isn’t closer material. Boston can’t even pretend to convince us that they want to content if they plan on having Barnes be the primary option in the ninth inning.
The trade for Adam Ottavino gives the Red Sox a potential solution with some experience in the role but he’s mostly been used as a setup man. He’s probably the team’s best reliever and certainly the highest paid but that doesn’t mean he’ll be locked into the ninth. Manager Alex Cora might prefer to be flexible with Ottavino’s usage since the most important outs aren’t necessarily made in the ninth inning.
Ottavino hasn’t fared as well against left-handed hitters throughout his career, allowing a .270 average and .792 OPS. He’s not enough of a liability to be considered a situational reliever but Boston might prefer to mix in southpaw Darwinzon Hernandez (.096 AVG, .400 OPS) against certain left-handers, potentially allowing the lefty to vulture a few rouge saves.
The phrase “closer by committee” historically hasn’t gone over well in Boston but that’s what this bullpen is shaping up to be. There are still some proven closers available on the free-agent market so there’s time to make an upgrade but at the moment, the bullpen strategy to close out games appears unstable.
Has Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez remembered how to hit?
2020 is a year we all want to forget but no Red Sox player is more eager to move on than J.D. Martinez.
His value is already mitigated by being locked into the designated hitter role. If he’s not hitting the ball, Martinez is essentially useless. That’s what happened last year when he was arguably the worst position player in baseball.
Martinez hit a woeful .213 with a .680 OPS in 54 games last season. His seven home runs and 27 RBI put him near the top on his own team but those are categories he’s normally near the top of the majors in. He wasn’t close to being on pace for the totals we’ve come to expect.
MLB temporarily prohibiting players from accessing video of their plate appearances during games has been blamed on Martinez’s drastic regression. It should come as no surprise that a creature of habit was thrown off by having his routine altered. Martinez is a very methodical hitter who studies the outcome of every trip to the plate. Taking away his ability to dissect his swing in the middle of a game prevented him from making the proper adjustments.
The league has allowed the return of video this year, so Martinez will no longer have that excuse to fall back on. If he returns to being the 30+ home run, 100+ RBI threat anchoring the lineup, we’ll chalk up last year’s disaster to a fluke. If Martinez struggles again this year, it might be time to panic about the 33-year-old falling off a cliff.
Next. Ortiz bored by rising strikeout rates. dark
Martinez doesn’t necessarily need to be an MVP contender like he was when he first arrived in Boston but a repeat of last season is unacceptable. Martinez at least approaching reasonable expectations at the plate will be one of the keys that determine if the Red Sox can contend for a playoff spot this year. If the veteran DH looks like himself again during spring training, Red Sox fans will take a collective sigh of relief.