Boston Red Sox: Five bold predictions for 2021 season
Bold predictions for the 2021 Boston Red Sox season
A miserable 2020 is mercifully behind us and it’s time to turn the page to begin a new chapter for the Boston Red Sox. As horribly wrong as many things went for this franchise last year, it’s easy to lose sight of the reasons why we should be optimistic about the upcoming season.
We’re starting the new year fresh by making some bold predictions for the Red Sox. What makes them bold? The point isn’t to settle for easily attainable goals. Predicting that Xander Bogaerts will hit at least .300 isn’t bold since he’s done that in each of the last two seasons and three of the last six. It would be mildly disappointing if his average finishes much lower than that figure.
Think bigger, although we do want to remain reasonable. Fans are excited about the late-season audition by Tanner Houck but let’s pump the brakes on anointing him as the next ace and a Cy Young candidate. He’s a good young pitcher but that prediction isn’t realistic.
There predictions might seem like a bit of a stretch based on what we saw in 2020 but there are viable paths to seeing them come to fruition.
Red Sox lefty Chris Sale finishes top-10 on Cy Young ballot
The Red Sox expect Chris Sale to return to their rotation next season but his timeline remains a bit murky. We know he won’t be available for Opening Day and we can essentially rule out the lefty making anywhere close to 30 starts or 200 innings. So how can a starting pitcher who isn’t able to carry a heavy workload going to be in contention for the Cy Young award?
We don’t have to look far to find precedent. Sale’s dominant 2018 season was interrupted by a stint on the disabled list, sidelining him for a significant chunk of the second half before he returned in September for a few bullpen appearances. Sale was back in the rotation for the playoffs but he finished the regular season with only 27 starts and 158 innings. Missing that much time might have cost Sale the hardware but he still managed to finish fourth on the AL Cy Young ballot.
Some projections have Sale returning around mid-season with a June debut viewed as a conservative estimate. By all accounts, he’s progressing well in his rehabilitation from Tommy John surgery and there’s growing optimism that Sale could be ready sooner than expected.
Sale will hit the one-year mark since his surgery shortly before Opening Day. One year is a reasonable time frame for recovery from this injury but he’ll still need time to ramp up his arm with minor league rehab starts or simulated games before he can join the Red Sox rotation.
That still doesn’t rule out the possibility of a May return. If Sale can squeeze in 25 starts and approach 150 innings, that should be enough to earn some Cy Young votes. Assuming, of course, that he’s back to pre-injury form. That’s hardly a guarantee but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if it happens.
Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers is an All-Star
Rafael Devers has never been an All-Star but the 24-year-old will have at least a few in his future, the first of which could come as early as this year.
Devers should have been an All-Star in 2019 when he hit .311 with a .916 OPS, 32 home runs, 115 RBI and a league-leading 54 doubles. In retrospect, it’s a travesty that a player who was 12th on the MVP ballot wasn’t invited to the Midsummer Classic.
Unfortunately for Devers, he got off to a slow start with a brutal May slump that left him unworthy of consideration at the time votes were counted. His breakout would come later that season when he proved himself capable of being a star player but his emergence was too late to earn him the nod.
There was no All-Star Game during last year’s 60-game season but Devers wouldn’t have warranted a spot even if the event was held. Devers regressed significantly at the plate, hitting only .266 with a .793 OPS in 57 games. His decline was even more notable in the field where Devers became a liability with 12 errors and -6 defensive runs saved.
Devers was one of several players hindered by baseball being shut down by the pandemic. He looked good back in Spring Training but after months of isolation, Devers showed up to Summer Camp out of shape and unfocused. He was sluggish in the field and wasn’t able to find any consistency at the plate.
This is a talented young player who hasn’t come close to reaching his ceiling. I’m willing to chalk up last season’s poor performance to unusual circumstances. With a normal offseason and training camp to prepare, expect to see the 2019 version of Devers this year. If we get that for a full season, he will be an All-Star caliber player.
Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez earns a Sliver Slugger
The unprecedented circumstances caused by the pandemic were difficult for many players to adapt to. Putting training camp on pause for several months before rushing through an abbreviated camp in July left many players unprepared but no hitter in baseball struggled with the changes more than J.D. Martinez.
Martinez was also very vocal about his frustration with MLB’s social distancing rules preventing him from having access to review video of his plate appearances during games. He wasn’t able to make the adjustments he was accustomed to and the changes in his routine showed in how uncomfortable he appeared at the plate.
The result was a career-low .213 batting average and a .680 OPS that had fallen over 250 points from the previous year. He was incapable of hitting fastballs, a pitch he’s historically crushed. Martinez’s timing was off and he struggled to fix it during a short season that drastically altered his routine.
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The 33-year-old might be nearing the end of his prime but it’s unlikely he’s at the point where he has fallen off a cliff due to age. His decline appears more mechanical and that can be fixed.
Martinez last won a Silver Slugger in 2018 while Nelson Cruz has taken home the hardware in three of the last four years at the DH position. There aren’t many full-time DH’s in the league that can compare to those two when they are at the top of their game. If there was any concern about age-related decline for Martinez, why wouldn’t there be for the 40-year-old Cruz?
Expect Martinez to get back on track this year and give Cruz strong competition for the trophy handed to the league’s best DH.
Red Sox leader in saves isn’t on the roster yet
When the Red Sox traded Brandon Workman to Philadelphia at the trade deadline it left them with Matt Barnes as the closer by default. Predictably, the results weren’t promising. Barnes notched nine saves but also blew four opportunities for an underwhelming 69.2 save percentage. The right-hander has never been a reliable option in that role, converting a dismal 45.5 percent of save opportunities in his career.
Barnes is still a capable setup arm with an elite strikeout rate but he’s not suited for the ninth inning. The Red Sox can’t reasonably convince us they expect to contend if they enter the season with Barnes as their top reliever.
The good news is that the free-agent market is flush with options. Boston probably won’t shell out top dollar for Liam Hendriks, one of baseball’s best closers and the top reliever on the market. There are still several available options who would provide the Red Sox with a significant upgrade.
Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, Blake Treinen, Alex Colome, Kirby Yates and Greg Holland are all viable options who should be affordable in this saturated market.
It’s imperative that the Red Sox sign one of these proven closers to handle the ninth inning because they don’t have anyone on the current roster capable of filling that role.
Red Sox will be a playoff team
The Red Sox owned the fourth-worst record in baseball last season so joining the playoff hunt would be quite a leap.
It’s not as if we’ve never seen this before though. The Red Sox were a last place team in 2012 but turned it around to win the World Series the following year. Boston sank back to the bottom for two years before capturing three consecutive division titles culminating in another championship in 2018. This decade has been a roller coaster for this franchise, proving that a worst-to-first turnaround is possible.
Boston needs several factors to go their way in order for this to happen but there is a viable path to getting back in the mix for a spot in the postseason.
Getting Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez back will provide a significant boost to the rotation, repairing the team’s greatest weakness. Adding a mid-tier starter in free agency would help solidify the rotation and provide some much-needed depth so that they will no longer need to rely on castoffs, replacement-level spot starters or openers.
An improved rotation would go a long way but it’s just the start of what Boston needs to be a contender. The last few slides explored predictions that are an essential part of this team bouncing back next season. Even if those bold predictions come up a bit short, the Red Sox need to get a lot more out of Sale, Devers, Martinez and whoever ends up closing games for this team next season.
It certainly doesn’t hurt to have Alex Cora back in the dugout. Following his one-year suspension, Cora is back to provide the leadership that guided the Red Sox to their most successful season in franchise history.
Next. Five things fans won't miss about 2020. dark
This is a talented roster that didn’t perform like one due to injuries and unexpected down seasons from key players. If these bold predictions come remotely close to fruition then this team has the talent to make a playoff run.