Red Sox: Three non-tendered outfielders to target in free agency
The Red Sox should consider signing these non-tendered outfielders
The non-tender deadline sent dozens of players to the free-agent market when their former clubs decided they were no longer worth the investment and declined to offer them a contract for the 2021 season. As they say, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure. While another team was willing to part ways with these players, the Boston Red Sox can find some value in these free-agents.
The outfield is one area that will need to be addressed this offseason. The options to replace Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field are extremely thin unless Boston shells out a lucrative deal for George Springer. The talent available in free-agency drops off quickly at the position but the list of non-tendered players provides a little more depth.
Even if the Red Sox bring back Bradley Jr., they may still consider a right-handed bat for their bench to complement their lefty-heavy outfield trio. There are several non-tendered right-handed hitters who aren’t viable center fielders but can provide value as a fourth outfielder.
The list of non-tendered players includes a few names that stand out, including Kyle Schwarber, Eddie Rosario and Nomar Mazara. As left-handed hitters who can only play a corner outfield spot, none of them fit what the Red Sox are looking for.
The players we’re focusing on have some flaws but they each provide a skill set that the Red Sox need. They should be affordable considering their former team projected their value on the open market to be less than what they would have earned in arbitration, allowing Boston to allocate more of their budget to upgrading the pitching staff.
Red Sox free-agent target – Delino DeShields
If the Red Sox lose Bradley Jr. to free agency, Delino DeShields is a viable replacement who can be scooped up for a fraction of the cost.
His bat won’t do much to impress but DeShields hit a serviceable .252 this year. His career .246 average and .326 OBP are very similar to Bradley Jr.’s career numbers. The power production he provides is more limited than Bradley Jr.’s but DeShields is more active on the base paths with four seasons collecting 20+ stolen bases on his resume.
Few can match the defensive wizardry of Bradley Jr. in center field but DeShields is no slouch with the glove. DeShields has totaled 21 defensive runs saved over the last four seasons, compared to 17 DRS for Bradley Jr. in that span.
DeShields is basically a poor man’s version of Bradley Jr. who also happens to be two years younger. He doesn’t have the defensive reputation of the former Gold Glove winner but DeShields is still an above-average center fielder. His bat has less upside but with a slightly higher floor than the streaky Bradley Jr. What he lacks in power he makes up for in speed, an element that the current Red Sox roster doesn’t have much of.
Even if the Red Sox bring back Bradley Jr. or splurge for one of the top outfielders on the market, DeShields should be available at a price affordable enough to warrant using him as a fourth outfielder. He can serve as a defensive replacement at all three outfield spots and a pinch-runner off the bench.
Red Sox free-agent target – Adam Duvall
The Atlanta Braves non-tendered Adam Duvall rather than pay his arbitration salary that was projected to be north of $4 million. This suggests that he could sign for less than that amount, which would be a fair price for a fourth outfielder or platoon bat.
Duvall doesn’t fit Boston’s need for a center fielder but he can fill in at either corner spot. He once rated as a very strong defensive outfielder but has slipped to about average over the last two seasons.
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An All-Star in his breakout 2016 campaign, Duvall has topped 30 home runs twice in his career.
His production fell off a cliff in 2018, prompting the Cincinnati Reds to ship him to Atlanta at the trade deadline. Duvall finished that season with a putrid .190 batting average and only 15 homers.
Injury limited Duvall to only 41 games in 2019 but he bounced back with a respectable .267/.315/.567 line. He remained healthy during the shortened 2020 season, appearing in 57 games and finishing among the league leaders with 16 home runs.
The Red Sox are clinging to hope that Andrew Benintendi will get back on track but even at his best, his left-handed swing has struggled against lefty pitchers. Benintendi owns a well below-average 84 wRC+ in his career against southpaws. The right-handed Duvall owned a 133 wRC+ against lefties this year, making him a potential platoon partner with Benny who can add some power production to the lineup.
Red Sox free-agent target – David Dahl
David Dahl was one of the biggest surprises among the non-tendered players. An All-Star in 2019, Dahl was cast aside to the scrap heap despite being projected for a modest $2.5 million in arbitration.
A couple of factors led to the Colorado Rockies cutting bait with Dahl, starting with his abysmal 2020 season. Dahl slashed .183/.222/.247 with only four extra-base hits, none of which left the ballpark. His unfathomably low 10 wRC+ represented a 100 point drop from the previous season and FanGraphs rated him among the worst position players in the league with -0.8 WAR.
In fairness, these results come in an unreliable sample size of only 24 games. However, that leads us to the next concern. Dahl has struggled to stay on the field, topping out at a career-high 100 games played in 2019. He’s battled through a ruptured spleen, stress reactions in his rib cage, a fractured foot, a high ankle sprain, plus back and shoulder injuries. That’s a lengthy injury history for a 26-year old with only four years of big league experience.
There’s risk in betting on Dahl’s brittle body but his bat provides enough upside to warrant rolling the dice on him for short money. Dahl is only on year removed from hitting .302/.353/.524 with 15 home runs and 48 extra-base hits.
The thin air at Coors Field helps everyone’s offensive production but that’s hardly the only reason for Dahl’s success. The former No. 10 overall pick was universally regarded as a top prospect throughout his minor league career.
Dahl is capable of filling all three outfield spots, although center field isn’t his strongest position. He would be a serviceable option after proving capable of patrolling the spacious outfield at Coors Field but he’s better suited for a corner spot.
His left-handed bat doesn’t complement the other Red Sox outfielders but Dahl produced reverse splits in his breakout 2019 season when when he hit .319 with a 115 wRC+ against lefties.
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He’s not an ideal fit for Boston’s needs since he isn’t right-handed or a natural center fielder. However, the upside of Dahl might be too great to pass up. The Red Sox would be gambling that Dahl can return to his 2019 form and stay relatively healthy but there are few outfielders available in free agency who can match Dahl’s talent and will be available at his affordable price tag.