Red Sox bargain starting pitcher
Upgrading the starting rotation is a priority for the Red Sox. The expected returns of Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale will certainly help and negates the need to splurge on a top of the rotation ace. What they need is depth, which they didn’t have this year when Boston struggled to cobble together a full rotation, forcing them to become overly reliant on bullpen games.
The free-agent market has several mid-tier and back of the rotation starters who could be available at reasonable prices. One of the cheaper options with upside should be Mike Minor who is coming off a brutal season in which he went 1-6 with a 5.56 ERA.
As poorly as this year went for Minor, he’s only a year removed from an All-Star campaign that saw him finish eighth on the AL Cy Young ballot.
A possible explanation for his downfall this year is a dip in velocity. Minor averaged 91.2 mph on his fastball this season, down from 92.7 mph the previous year and 93.2 mph in 2018.
Even with declining velocity, Minor still managed to miss bats. His 9.8 K/9 was the highest of his career as a starter and his 11.4 swinging strike percentage was nearly identical to 2019. This partially explains why his 4.64 FIP was nearly a full run better than his ERA.
The greater concern was the career-high 1.7 HR/9 that Minor allowed. Pitching with reduced velocity might have made it easier for hitters to catch up with his fastball and make more hard contact.
Many pitchers struggled to ramp up in the aftermath of the pandemic shutdown and abbreviated summer camp to prepare for this season. There’s reason to be optimistic that Minor’s velocity will trend up again with a normal spring training which should lead to better results on the mound.
We shouldn’t expect a return to his All-Star form but Minor should be a serviceable back of the rotation starter with upside to fit in the middle of Boston’s rotation. For the 1-year, $6 million deal that MLBTR predicts he’ll sign, he’s worth considering for a club that might need to add multiple starters.