Red Sox: Five Black Friday bargains to find in free agency
Potential bargains the Boston Red Sox could find in free agency.
The day after Thanksgiving is the top shopping day of the year for those seeking a bargain. The Boston Red Sox have the financial flexibility to spend in free agency but they have several holes to fill and that room in the budget can disappear quickly. As eager as fans are to see the front office make a big splash, they can’t go the expensive route at every position. Boston will need to find some bargains along the way.
In the spirit of Black Friday, let’s take a look at some available free-agents who the Red Sox could potentially sign without breaking the bank.
We start with the return of a familiar face. Kevin Pillar only spent half of a shortened season in Boston but he fit in well while he was here.
Pillar hit .274 with a .795 OPS, four home runs and 13 RBI in 30 games with the Red Sox before he was shipped to the Colorado Rockies at the trade deadline. Naturally, his production went up hitting at Coors Field but Pillar showed his bat is more than serviceable at Fenway.
He spent most of his time with the Red Sox platooning in right field due to the presence of Jackie Bradley Jr. in center but Pillar can handle all three outfield positions. The 31-year-old isn’t the elite defensive player he was in his prime but he still provides a solid glove that offers a short-term solution in center if Bradley Jr. leaves in free agency.
The market is thin on center field options. The Red Sox need to either bring back JBJ, pay up for George Springer or go bargain hunting. Boston signed Pillar to a 1-year, $4.25 million deal last winter and now he’s back on the market in a similar situation that should lead to a comparably affordable deal.
Red Sox bargain second baseman
The Red Sox cycled through a few options at second base following the failed Jose Peraza experiment but they were poor fits for the position or better served as utility options off the bench. If they want a steadier option at second base, Kolten Wong could be the solution.
The two-time Gold Glove award winner would drastically improve Boston’s weak infield defense. The Red Sox have plenty of firepower in their lineup so favoring defense up the middle is more important than adding another expensive bat.
Wong is capable of producing more offensively than his middling .265 batting average this year suggests. He hit a respectable .285 in two of the previous three seasons and has reached double-digits in home runs three times in his career.
Moving to Fenway could be a boost to his numbers at the plate. The left-handed hitter showed a notable improvement in his ability to hit the ball to the opposite field this year (32.5 Oppo%). Continuing that trend in Boston would lead to an uptick in his power production with Wong peppering the Green Monster with opposite field doubles.
The St. Louis Cardinals declined Wong’s $12.5 million club option so we can expect he’ll be available for less than that as a free-agent. MLB Trade Rumors predicted the Red Sox would sign Wong to a 2-year, $16 million deal, which sounds more than fair for an elite defensive second baseman with decent upside at the plate that should improve in a better lineup and hitting environment.
Red Sox bargain reliever
The Red Sox desperately need a boost to their underwhelming bullpen and that starts with finding a new closer, a role they never suitably filled following the trade that sent Brandon Workman to the Phillies.
The volatility of relievers often makes them poor investments. With plenty of positions to address this offseason, Boston probably won’t sink a significant portion of their budget into an elite closer like Liam Hendriks. Instead, they should target multiple lower-cost relievers with high upside.
Kirby Yates fits the bill following a lost season in which he allowed six earned runs in only 4 1/3 innings. Elbow inflammation sidelined Yates for most of the season and he had surgery to remove bone chips. The procedure was relatively minor so Yates should be expected to be healthy by the beginning of next season.
Injuries and inconsistency plagued Yates early in his career but everything finally clicked for the late-bloomer when he went to San Diego. Yates posted a 2.14 ERA and 12.9 K/9 in his breakout 2018 season. He followed that with a sparkling 1.19 ERA and an elite 15.0 K/9 in 2019 while leading the NL with 41 saves and finishing ninth on the Cy Young ballot.
Yates would be challenging Hendriks for the biggest contract for a reliever this winter if he had produced those types of numbers this season but a dismal year derailed by injury will keep his cost in check. He’s projected for a 1-year, $5 million deal that would make him a tremendous bargain as long as he’s healthy.
Red Sox bargain starting pitcher
Upgrading the starting rotation is a priority for the Red Sox. The expected returns of Eduardo Rodriguez and Chris Sale will certainly help and negates the need to splurge on a top of the rotation ace. What they need is depth, which they didn’t have this year when Boston struggled to cobble together a full rotation, forcing them to become overly reliant on bullpen games.
The free-agent market has several mid-tier and back of the rotation starters who could be available at reasonable prices. One of the cheaper options with upside should be Mike Minor who is coming off a brutal season in which he went 1-6 with a 5.56 ERA.
As poorly as this year went for Minor, he’s only a year removed from an All-Star campaign that saw him finish eighth on the AL Cy Young ballot.
A possible explanation for his downfall this year is a dip in velocity. Minor averaged 91.2 mph on his fastball this season, down from 92.7 mph the previous year and 93.2 mph in 2018.
Even with declining velocity, Minor still managed to miss bats. His 9.8 K/9 was the highest of his career as a starter and his 11.4 swinging strike percentage was nearly identical to 2019. This partially explains why his 4.64 FIP was nearly a full run better than his ERA.
The greater concern was the career-high 1.7 HR/9 that Minor allowed. Pitching with reduced velocity might have made it easier for hitters to catch up with his fastball and make more hard contact.
Many pitchers struggled to ramp up in the aftermath of the pandemic shutdown and abbreviated summer camp to prepare for this season. There’s reason to be optimistic that Minor’s velocity will trend up again with a normal spring training which should lead to better results on the mound.
We shouldn’t expect a return to his All-Star form but Minor should be a serviceable back of the rotation starter with upside to fit in the middle of Boston’s rotation. For the 1-year, $6 million deal that MLBTR predicts he’ll sign, he’s worth considering for a club that might need to add multiple starters.
Another Red Sox bargain starting pitcher
Cole Hamels was among the best pitchers in baseball during the first decade of his career in Philadelphia, making four All-Star appearances and four top-eight finishes on the Cy Young ballot. The 36-year-old is past his peak but he still pitched well over the last few years with the Texas Rangers and Chicago Cubs before injuries derailed his 2020 season in Atlanta.
Hamels began the season on the injured list with triceps tendinitis that sidelined him until September. He made only one brief appearance before the Braves shut him down with shoulder fatigue.
Whether or not Hamels is a worthy free-agent target depends entirely on the medical reports. If he’s deemed healthy, we can essentially toss out his lost 2020 season. Hamels went 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA and 9.1 K/9 in his last relatively healthy season with the Cubs in 2019. If he’s given a clean bill of health, there’s little reason to believe he can’t approach that level of production.
His age and recent injury history make Hamels a risky option but it’s a gamble worth taking on the 1-year, $4 million deal he’s projected for. The uncertainty surrounding Hamels makes it unwise to make him their only investment in the rotation but if the Red Sox plan to sign multiple starters, the upside of Hamels at this price makes him a viable reclamation project.
Next. Red Sox should make offer for Snell. dark
Based on the MLBTR free-agent predictions, Boston could conceivably sign all five of these players to fill the holes on their roster while remaining below the luxury tax threshold. They could also make a splash with one of the flashier free-agents, which would eat up most of their available budget and leave them choosing between a few of these types of bargain free-agents to plug their remaining holes. Either way, Boston will need to find some value on the market and it’s clear that they should be able to find some at reasonable prices who still provide enticing upside.