Red Sox: Ranking Boston’s Most Valuable Player chances for next season

Red Sox American League MVP possibilities for 2021

The Red Sox have an illustrious list of players who have been declared the Most Valuable Player and that lists goes from Tris Speaker in 1912 to Mookie Betts in 2018. Winning certainly helps vote harvesting and Speaker was part of the great 1912 team and Betts with a team just as accomplished. Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, Ted Williams in 1946, Fred Lynn in 1975, and Roger Clemens in 1986 were part of teams that made it to the World Series only to lose.

Mo Vaughn in 1996 and Jackie Jensen in 1958 won the award for teams that went nowhere. Jimmie Foxx won in 1938 with a second-place team and statistics that included a batting championship, 175 RBI, and 50 home runs. Jim Rice in 1978 had numbers that included leading the AL in everything but batting average.

The recent MVP voting is done and the American League winner was Jose Abreu with Jose Ramirez and DJ LeMahieu accounting for second and third place. Alex Verdugo received a fifth-place vote and Xander Bogaerts a tenth place vote and that was it for the Red Sox. So just who has a chance in 2021 to win or place higher in the listings?

Xander Bogaerts is the best Red Sox MVP bet for 2021

Xander Bogaerts has received votes in the past with a fifth-place finish in 2019 and an All-Star team – his second – and his third Silver Slugger Award. Bogaerts hit 33 home runs, had 117 RBI, and 110 runs scored in the last season before COVID-19 surfaced. Bogaerts is now demonstrating the power and run production predicted to surface since he came on the MLB scene as a 20-year-old.

What I have seen as underrated with Bogaerts is his base running ability.  Bogaerts has 61 career steals and nabbed just 14 times. On the basis, it is not necessarily the steals but the intelligence of what to do and when to do it.  In 2020 Bogaerts was a perfect eight for eight on steals.

In 2020 Bogaerts was sandwiched between Tim Anderson and Francisco Lindor with his 1.9 fWAR. Defensively Bogaerts has shown steady improvement and is no longer considered being moved to third base.  In 2020 Bogaerts’ 0.2 UZR/150 and a -5 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) can best be signaled as average. But being a shortstop is a position that gets extra attention and Bogaerts more than makes up his “average” defense with an above-average offense.

The hitting is the attention-getter to voters and if Bogaerts matches and exceeds 2019 he’ll be in a good position for MVP vote harvesting especially if the dreary 2020 Red Sox are replaced by a more vibrant product in 2021.

A plus that surfaces with Bogaerts is he is a class act on and off the field. Leadership can be demonstrative such as Dustin Pedroia or more subtle and that is Bogaerts who some consider a quasi captain of the team. Package it together – a winning season, power production, and leadership and Bogaerts is my favorite for 2021.

Rafael Devers’ MVP chances are bat connected

When discussing Rafael Devers let’s get the negative out of the way and that starts as soon as a ball is hit to Devers at third base. In 2020 the -10.6 UZR/150 was a crash from 2.4 UZR/150 in 2019 that showed Devers is not necessarily an embarrassment. A career -35 DRS does not give comfort to pitchers nor does the consistently high ranking on errors. The nugget of positive is Devers is capable of making sparking plays and 2019 gave insight into Devers not being Butch Hobson redux.

In 2020 Devers did what Devers does – start slow.  Devers starts the season as a tortoise and finishes as a hare. But I will drift back to 2019 when Devers simply crushed the ball.  Yes, we know sometimes his strike zone is peculiar, but when Devers is on his hitting is ferocious. Exit velocity is exceptional, power is elite, and run production is among the best.

In 2019 the left-hand hitter led the AL in doubles with 54 and in total bases with 359. Home runs totaled 32 and the run production was exceptional with 115 RBI and 129 runs scored. Devers’ 5.9 fWAR and 132 wRC+ trailed Mookie Betts and Bogaerts for the team lead. At 24-years-old the learning curve is still in place for Devers.

Devers’ chances for piling up votes will rest on his bat and that means not getting out of the starting gate like a sloth. Devers also will have a lineup that can hit and potentially that could mean run production chances. Another factor that could weigh-in is the return of Alex Cora as manager. Cora apparently is a svengali of sorts to Devers especially in Devers’ handling of the strike zone. To push out Bogaerts will mean a season with the bat for Devers that will have to be up in lights.

Can Alex Verdugo rank high on MVP ballots?

The top vote-getter in 2020 for Boston was the previously mentioned Alex Verdugo who was more than a pleasant surprise for Red Sox Nation. The most notable is Verdugo has a healthy dose of Trot Nixon dirt dog DNA in him. He plays hard and it shows in his personality and fans respond to his style and replacing Betts is no mean chore – he won over RSN.

Defensively Verdugo is very good and potentially could be great. In 2020 a 0.8 UZR/150 is not in Betts or Dwight Evans territory, but Verdugo has mastered the right field at Fenway Park, has an arm that makes runners cautious going from first to third, and can go to his right to cover gaps. Verdugo also played left field where his metrics improved to a 4.2 UZR/150. Apparently with Verdugo walls are just an impediment to catching a fly ball or line drive.

Verdugo’s 1.6 fWAR was just behind Bogaerts and Verdugo’s .308 batting average was best on the team (min AB). The lefty-hitting Verdugo showed no liability against southpaws hitting them at a .320 clip versus .302 against righties. This has been a pattern in Verdugo’s short career and Verdugo – now 24-years-old – will have to pick it up a notch or two in the power department to impress voters.

In 2020 Verdugo slammed six home runs and had just 15 RBI – two “meh” figures. But with his dynamic style of play and high energy he has the big potential to catch the eye of the voters. Having Alex Cora as his manager may only expand on his abilities as we all know the young skipper has a way of connecting with his players.

Would a J.D. Martinez comeback be enough for MVP?

What a difference a year makes and enough fans were hoping that J.D. Martinez would opt-out and test the market.  Examining the designated hitter for 2020 and Martinez apparently did opt-out of production. That wooden bat of 2018 and 2019 suddenly became a rubber bat and a dismal -0.9 bWAR with a .213 batting average, so let’s go back to 2019.

In 2019 Martinez slashed .304/.383/.557 with 36 home runs and 105 RBI and that was a downer when compared to 2018. Since 2014 the expectations are a .300 batting average, 40+ home runs, and 100+ RBI from the right-hand power hitter. Martinez to make an MVP name for himself has to do it with his bat since defensively he plays about as well as I can do a ballet arabesque.

Baseball history is loaded with players who mysteriously saw their talent vaporize at a relatively young baseball age and Martinez is just 33-years-old.  Was it a hidden injury?  The loss of his instant access i-pad? Whatever it was the Red Sox have a desperate need for Martinez to find his stats circa 2014-2019 or they’ll have a hole in the lineup you can drive a freight train through.

Being a DH makes an MVP award a near impossibility – David Ortiz could and should have had a few, but there is most certainly an ingrained prejudice about a DH being a one-trick pony. If Martinez gets on track the chances are he’ll get the award no player wants – Comeback of the Year. However, if the J.D. of 2018 makes his way back to Fenway Park in 2021 we vary well may see him make some waves come voting time.