How a Lindor trade could work for the Red Sox
As unfeasible as a Lindor deal appears, we can’t completely rule out the possibility if the Red Sox want to get creative. Especially if his expiring contract, next year’s loaded free-agent class, and a limited number of teams willing to add payroll combine to keep the asking price in Boston’s range.
The Red Sox could conceivably trade for Lindor, then turn around and ship Bogaerts to another team in exchange for a starting pitcher. Aside from breaking the bank for Trevor Bauer, the type of pitcher Bogaerts could fetch in a trade should be superior to the options available in free agency.
Lindor is projected for an arbitration salary similar to what Bogaerts will earn next season. If the pitcher Boston obtains by trading Bogaerts is a young talent who is several years away from free agency, these deals won’t significantly alter their available payroll space. With the rotation problem solved, the Red Sox still have plenty to spend on a center fielder or second baseman plus multiple bullpen pieces.
Teams are naturally hesitant to trade for a player one year before they are eligible for free agency. Boston would need to try to lock Lindor up with an extension if they trade for him and they would be banking on his rapport with Cora to help seal the deal.
The risk is mitigated by the opt-out clause Bogaerts has in his contract after the 2022 season. Yes, they could potentially lose Lindor after one year but they might lose Bogaerts a year later anyway. If the team’s future or the allure of playing for Cora isn’t enough to convince to Lindor to stay, perhaps it’s not enough for Bogaerts either. Boston would still recoup a draft pick if Lindor leaves after declining a qualifying offer and they potentially would still have the pitcher they acquired in a Bogaerts trade.