Red Sox Rumors: Francisco Lindor trade unlikely but still possible

Why the Red Sox wouldn’t trade for Lindor

As Morosi points out, Boston’s priority is upgrading a pitching staff that FanGraphs rated as the worst in the majors this year.

The Red Sox have carved out nearly $40 million in payroll space beneath the luxury tax threshold but Lindor could eat up about half of that with the salary he’s projected to earn in his third year of arbitration. That might not leave them with enough room to add a starting pitcher and a closer, which would be the bare minimum to addressing their needs.

Boston’s thin farm system might not have enough chips to entice Cleveland into making a deal. A package built around Jeter Downs or Triston Casas would be a steep price for one year of Lindor. Teams on the verge of championship contention can take that gamble for a player of Lindor’s caliber. The Red Sox are not that team unless they have several other significant moves up their sleeve.

Perhaps most importantly, the Red Sox are already set at shortstop with Xander Bogaerts. While Lindor is one of the few shortstops in baseball who can claim to be more valuable than Bogaerts, especially defensively, the upgrade is slim enough to question if the move is worthwhile when Boston has more pressing issues to address.

Bogaerts has emerged a clubhouse leader and Boston’s most valuable player. There’s certainly no urgency to seek an upgrade at his position. If the Red Sox had any notion of moving on from Bogaerts, why not wait a year when Lindor could be available without giving up a boatload of prospects? Next year’s free-agent class is loaded with shortstops so if they miss out on Lindor, Boston could target Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, or Trevor Story.

How a Lindor trade could work for the Red Sox

As unfeasible as a Lindor deal appears, we can’t completely rule out the possibility if the Red Sox want to get creative. Especially if his expiring contract, next year’s loaded free-agent class, and a limited number of teams willing to add payroll combine to keep the asking price in Boston’s range.

The Red Sox could conceivably trade for Lindor, then turn around and ship Bogaerts to another team in exchange for a starting pitcher. Aside from breaking the bank for Trevor Bauer, the type of pitcher Bogaerts could fetch in a trade should be superior to the options available in free agency.

Lindor is projected for an arbitration salary similar to what Bogaerts will earn next season. If the pitcher Boston obtains by trading Bogaerts is a young talent who is several years away from free agency, these deals won’t significantly alter their available payroll space. With the rotation problem solved, the Red Sox still have plenty to spend on a center fielder or second baseman plus multiple bullpen pieces.

Teams are naturally hesitant to trade for a player one year before they are eligible for free agency. Boston would need to try to lock Lindor up with an extension if they trade for him and they would be banking on his rapport with Cora to help seal the deal.

The risk is mitigated by the opt-out clause Bogaerts has in his contract after the 2022 season. Yes, they could potentially lose Lindor after one year but they might lose Bogaerts a year later anyway. If the team’s future or the allure of playing for Cora isn’t enough to convince to Lindor to stay, perhaps it’s not enough for Bogaerts either. Boston would still recoup a draft pick if Lindor leaves after declining a qualifying offer and they potentially would still have the pitcher they acquired in a Bogaerts trade.

The Red Sox could have it all

Why pick between the two star shortstops when you can have both?

There’s a scenario where Boston could keep Bogaerts, protecting them in the event that Lindor bolts after one season. The superior glove of Lindor should earn him the shortstop role, which means Bogaerts would need to be open to moving to second base, filling another position of need.

The Red Sox could also consider moving the defensively challenged Rafael Devers across the diamond to first base, allowing Bogaerts to shift over to the hot corner where he briefly played early in his career. With his limited range already being questioned, a position change might be inevitable at some point for Bogaerts.

Having both star shortstops on the payroll means the Red Sox would be shopping for bargains to fill their other holes but they won’t need to chase one of the high-priced outfield bats if the add Lindor. That could lead to a reunion with the cheaper Jackie Bradley Jr. Retaining an elite defensive center fielder while adding another golden glove at shortstop will benefit the pitching staff. Bobby Dalbec or Michael Chavis would be more expendable so either could be flipped for a pitcher.

Lindor doesn’t fit a position of need but acquiring the superstar shortstop still improves the roster while creating the flexibility to address their other needs through additional trades.

The Red Sox need to be relatively confident that the trade market will present the pitching talent they require in order for this plan to work. They also need to be comfortable with offering Lindor an adequate extension or with being competitive in a bidding war to retain him if he chooses to wait for free agency.

A Lindor deal presents plenty of risk, but if it’s accompanied by the right series of moves in free agency or via other trades, it could be Boston’s best path to climbing back into contention next year.