Red Sox News: J.D. Martinez wisely avoids free agency trap

Red Sox DH J.D. Martinez will not opt-out to test free agency.

J.D. Martinez is staying with the Boston Red Sox. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that the veteran designated hitter will not exercise the opt-out clause in his contract which would have allowed him to hit the free-agent market this offseason.

Mark this down as the least surprising news we’ll hear this winter. Martinez has hinted that he was leaning towards opting-in but now he’s made it official.

The delayed start to the pandemic-shortened season threw a wrench in his routine and social distancing rules prohibited Martinez from watching video of his swing to make adjustments during games. Martinez is a creature of habit who was as impacted by this unprecedented environment as much as anyone.

The result was one of the worst years of his career and by far his worst since he rebuilt his swing ahead of his breakout years in Detroit. Martinez hit a career-low .213 with a .680 OPS, a category he has ranked among the league’s best in over the last five years.

His seven home runs were only the fifth-most on his own team. Mitch Moreland hit more homers (8) in only 22 games with the Red Sox before he was traded.

As rough as this season was for Martinez at the plate, this year’s free-agent market could be even more brutal. The loss of revenue from games being played without fans in attendance this year is expected to lead to most teams tightening their budget.

Consider that the last time Martinez hit free agency he coming off an outstanding season that finished with a torrid second half to lead the Arizona Diamondbacks to the postseason. Despite his impressive production, the Red Sox were his only serious suitors and he ended up signing for far short of what he originally asked for. What chance does he have of getting a better deal as a 33-year old in the wake of an awful season?

Most players can’t wait to reach free agency so that they can cash in but for Martinez, the lure of a big payday is a trap. Martinez is owed $38.75 million over the final two years of his contract. He’d be hard-pressed to find an offer for more than that in this market.

While Martinez is probably no longer worth his current salary, the Red Sox must be somewhat relieved that he’s staying. As poorly as he produced this year, it’s reasonable to assume his downfall was caused by the interruption to his routine rather than a steep age-related decline. A bounce-back year in 2021 should surprise no one and the Red Sox wouldn’t be able to replace the upside his bat brings to the lineup.

The downside of Martinez opting-in is that it takes the possibility of a renegotiated contract off the table. Martinez is owed $19.35 million next season but will count as $22 million for luxury tax purposes based on the average annual value of his contract. Exercising the opt-out in order to sign a new deal that adds an additional year or two while lowering the AAV would have created more wiggle room under the tax threshold.

Martinez will have another opportunity to opt-out after next season ahead of the final year on his contract. Perhaps market conditions will improve by then and he can make himself a more appealing option by returning to form at the plate. Those factors will be considered when Martinez is presented with this option next year but for now, he’s staying in Boston.