Boston Red Sox: Five free-agents who must be avoided

These five free-agents should be avoided by the Boston Red Sox.

The Boston Red Sox have their work cut out for them in order to upgrade a roster that finished at the bottom of their division this year. The clearest path to talent is the free-agent market and Boston should have money to spend after resetting the luxury tax penalties.

Free agency is a buyer beware market though. Most players hit free agency when they are already in their prime, perhaps even at the tail end of it. They expect to be paid based on what they’ve already accomplished rather than what we can expect from them moving forward. That often makes free-agents a bad investment.

It’s a risky path but sometimes a necessary one. The Red Sox have few major league-ready prospects who can step in to fill a key role next season and their thin farm system doesn’t have the assets to rely heavily on trades to fix their problems.

Exploring free agency will be a significant part of the offseason process but the Red Sox shouldn’t spend money for the sake of it. Spending should be done wisely with long-term ramifications in mind, not as a way to convince their fans that last year’s frugal ways were only temporary.

With that in mind, these five free-agents present risks that should caution the Red Sox against targeting them this winter.

Red Sox must avoid Pedro Baez

The Red Sox bullpen is in dire need of an upgrade after finishing the year with a collective 5.79 ERA, which ranked 27th in the majors.

Relief pitchers tend to be volatile and therefore difficult to project year-to-year. There are plenty of underwhelming arms available that we should have no interest in. Rather than run through the multitude of poor-performing pitchers that can be found in the bargain bin, I’m focusing on a reliever who could get paid a decent contract despite some red flags.

Pedro Baez has one of the steadier track records in this free-agent class. He doesn’t have experience as a closer with only three rouge saves on his resume but he’s been a reliable setup man during his seven seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Baez owns a career 3.03 ERA that hasn’t fluctuated much higher or lower over the years. He posted a solid 3.18 ERA in 17 innings this season.

Despite his continued success, there are some concerns that Baez is due for regression. His career-high 5.73 xFIP is significantly higher than his career 4.17 xFIP and both are over a full run higher than his ERA.

This biggest reason for his rising xFIP is a drastic decline in strikeout rate. Baez struck out over a batter per inning with a 9.91 K/9 in 2018. That dipped slightly to 8.91 K/9 last year before plummeting to 6.88 K/9 this season.

The shortened season provides small sample sizes, especially for relievers. We have evidence that this declining strikeout rate isn’t a fluke though. Baez has seen his velocity drop as well. After averaging over 97 mph with his fastball during his peak seasons, Baez dipped to 96 mph last year and a career-low 94.4 mph this season. Losing velocity might explain why his swinging strike rate fell to 12.4% this year after hovering at around 15% for most of his career.

The 32-year old appears to be heading for a decline. If his velocity and strikeouts keep trending in the wrong direction, his ERA will begin to match the level that his xFIP suggests it should be.

Red Sox must avoid Masahiro Tanaka

While there is some appeal to stealing from the Yankees in order to boost your own rotation, luring Masahiro Tanaka away from New York could backfire.

Tanaka was an All-Star in 2019 based on a strong first half but he fell apart after the break, posting a 5.26 ERA over his final 14 appearances.

He bounced back with a 3.56 ERA this year but that was in only 10 starts. Expecting him to keep that up over a full season is risky. Tanaka has never tossed 200+ innings in a season and has made 30+ starts only three times. Durability is a concern that won’t improve with age and Tanaka will turn 32 next month.

Tanaka has a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow that the Yankees have known about since his rookie season in 2014. It hasn’t required surgery yet but his elbow is essentially a ticking time bomb. Locking themselves into a multi-year deal with an over-30 pitcher with an elbow concern that might lead to Tommy John surgery could make the Red Sox regret the decision faster than you can say “Chris Sale.”

Even if Tanaka continues to defy the odds by avoiding surgery, he’s still a pitcher on the decline with a habit of giving up home runs. He can still be a solid mid-rotation option but he’s likely to get paid as if he’s more than that. Probably by the Yankees. It’s not worth it for the Red Sox to try to outbid their rivals for a pitcher with this many red flags.

Red Sox must avoid Joc Pederson

Joc Pederson is setting himself up for a nice pay day with his postseason heroics, hitting a robust .382/.417/.559 with two home runs. He has a history of performing in October with nine home runs in 63 career playoff games.

Power isn’t the problem for Pederson, who hit a career-high 36 homers last year. His run production potential doesn’t mask the reasons why he wouldn’t be a good fit for the Red Sox though.

Boston’s outfield is already heavy on left-handed hitters. A right-handed bat to replace Jackie Bradley Jr. isn’t a requirement but one with Pederson’s wide platoon splits isn’t ideal. The batting average will never impress from someone who hit .190 this season but Pederson owns a strong .349 OBP and .501 SLG against right-handed pitching in his career. Unfortunately, he’s basically useless against lefties with a .266 OBP and .310 SLG.

Pederson is a platoon player who is a liability against lefties. The enviable depth of the Dodgers roster has allowed them to cover for that glaring weakness but the Red Sox don’t have that luxury. Signing Pederson means they’ll need to find a right-handed bat to pair with him.

While he’s played some center field in his career, Pederson is best suited for a corner outfield spot. That would require shifting either Andrew Benintendi or Alex Verdugo to center. Neither is a natural at the position and since Pederson is below-average anywhere you put him, the outfield defense would suffer a drastic decline.

If the Red Sox want a left-handed platoon bat for their outfield in this mid-tier price range, they would be better off sticking with Bradley Jr. for his defense.

Red Sox must avoid Marcus Semien

Marcus Semien is one of the top position players in this year’s free-agent class but he’s not a priority for the Red Sox.

Semien had a breakout year in 2019 when he hit .285 with a .892 OPS and 33 home runs to finish third on the AL MVP ballot. His 8.9 WAR ranked third among major league position players.

Teams would have lined up to acquire the Oakland A’s shortstop if he hit the market last year but interest might be on the decline after Semien regressed in essentially every area this season. He hit a meager .223 with a .679 OPS. His seven home runs put him well below the pace to match last year’s career-high total. Considering he hit no more than 15 home runs in five of his first six career seasons, 2019 looks like an outlier.

Semien showed significant improvement in the field in recent years, producing 26 defensive runs saved combined between 2018-19. However, his -5 DRS this season suggests he’s back to being the fairly mediocre shortstop we saw for most of his career.

Besides, the Red Sox are already set at shortstop with Xander Bogaerts. In fairness, Bogaerts wasn’t any better defensively this year and he’s been below-average or worse for his entire career as far as the DRS metric is concerned. That’s not the reason to be skeptical about targeting Semien though. Bogaerts has emerged as the new clubhouse leader and face of the franchise. Asking him to switch positions to make room for a flashy free-agent signing would risk upsetting the team’s chemistry.

His defensive limitations might eventually force the Red Sox to discuss a position change with Bogaerts but they shouldn’t ask him to give up playing shortstop unless it’s for a clear upgrade. If they want to go down that route, wait for next offseason when Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Trevor Story hit the market. Bogaerts might be more open to the switch if it means being teammates with one of those star shortstops.