Boston Red Sox: Five free-agents who must be avoided

Red Sox must avoid Masahiro Tanaka

While there is some appeal to stealing from the Yankees in order to boost your own rotation, luring Masahiro Tanaka away from New York could backfire.

Tanaka was an All-Star in 2019 based on a strong first half but he fell apart after the break, posting a 5.26 ERA over his final 14 appearances.

He bounced back with a 3.56 ERA this year but that was in only 10 starts. Expecting him to keep that up over a full season is risky. Tanaka has never tossed 200+ innings in a season and has made 30+ starts only three times. Durability is a concern that won’t improve with age and Tanaka will turn 32 next month.

Tanaka has a partial UCL tear in his throwing elbow that the Yankees have known about since his rookie season in 2014. It hasn’t required surgery yet but his elbow is essentially a ticking time bomb. Locking themselves into a multi-year deal with an over-30 pitcher with an elbow concern that might lead to Tommy John surgery could make the Red Sox regret the decision faster than you can say “Chris Sale.”

Even if Tanaka continues to defy the odds by avoiding surgery, he’s still a pitcher on the decline with a habit of giving up home runs. He can still be a solid mid-rotation option but he’s likely to get paid as if he’s more than that. Probably by the Yankees. It’s not worth it for the Red Sox to try to outbid their rivals for a pitcher with this many red flags.